March Madness and Covid-19

[AdaSooner]

Must be looking at a different website than I am. Oh well.

Scroll down the page and you’ll see it. I’m not confirming the accuracy, just reporting what one news source in Oklahoma reported:

https://www.koco.com/article/oklaho...e-than-4900-positive-cases-statewide/32475720

Note: The headline is misleading.

 

[steverocks35]

Scroll down the page and you’ll see it. I’m not confirming the accuracy, just reporting what one news source in Oklahoma reported:

https://www.koco.com/article/oklaho...e-than-4900-positive-cases-statewide/32475720

Note: The headline is misleading.

Okay, thanks for posting.

I always just go straight to the OSDH website, in fact I am signed up for their daily emails.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I haven't been able to find a graph that goes back and puts the deaths on the correct date rather than the day they were reported. That would be interesting

 

[WTSooner]

I haven't been able to find a graph that goes back and puts the deaths on the correct date rather than the day they were reported. That would be interesting

That is why I typically look at them averaged over at least a couple of days, if not a full week. Brings a lot more clarity to the info.

 

[SoonerJK12]

SoonerBounce is correct. The number of deaths that the health department reports on a daily basis is "reported" deaths in the last 24 hours. NOT deaths happening in the last 24 hours. It's the same for the new cases. Some of the new cases are from previous days.

The health department puts out a weekly epidemiological report that has the cases and death graphed by the actual day they happened.

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report

It has a lot of really good information.

I would also like to add that there are only 77 people hospitalized with confirmed COVID in Oklahoma.

 

[SoonerJK12]

There are now 2 people in the state of Washington who are being considered probable cases of COVID 19. They were sick in December. But I have been assured that the virus could not possibly have been here before late January. So the health officials must be wrong.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...-u-s-arrival/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

 

[coolm]

you guys DO understand how these curves work, right? it's not necessarily a matter of following the most accurate indicator - the consistency of which one you follow matters most. So much of this debate, to me, seems rather immaterial at best.

 

[steverocks35]

There are now 2 people in the state of Washington who are being considered probable cases of COVID 19. They were sick in December. But I have been assured that the virus could not possibly have been here before late January. So the health officials must be wrong.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...-u-s-arrival/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

I know everyone wants to claim it was here in December, but don't you find it a bit coincidental that she met with a nurse in February that was working at the infamous nursing home in Kirkland, right as they were about to have their huge outbreak? Having antibodies doesn't mean that she had Covid-19 in December, because there are so many asymptomatic cases. Also, it would be very unusual for her to have a highly symptomatic case of the disease in December and not infect anyone around her. This would be amazing to me if true. Unfortunately, there is no way to prove it, and lots of reasons why it could be just coincidence.

Also there is this from the article: 'Genetic sequencing of multiple cases from the Western Washington outbreak by Nextstrain, an open-source genome data project, further indicates “there is not a lot of support for an earlier, independent event,” Roach said.'

So yeah, it's possible, but not likely at all, in my opinion, that the virus was here in December.

 

[BoulderSooner]

I know everyone wants to claim it was here in December, but don't you find it a bit coincidental that she met with a nurse in February that was working at the infamous nursing home in Kirkland, right as they were about to have their huge outbreak? Having antibodies doesn't mean that she had Covid-19 in December, because there are so many asymptomatic cases. Also, it would be very unusual for her to have a highly symptomatic case of the disease in December and not infect anyone around her. This would be amazing to me if true. Unfortunately, there is no way to prove it, and lots of reasons why it could be just coincidence.

Also there is this from the article: 'Genetic sequencing of multiple cases from the Western Washington outbreak by Nextstrain, an open-source genome data project, further indicates “there is not a lot of support for an earlier, independent event,” Roach said.'

So yeah, it's possible, but not likely at all, in my opinion, that the virus was here in December.

It is close to 100% the virus was here in December.

It was in the open in China in November or early December and thousands and thousands flew to the USA in December

 

[steverocks35]

It is close to 100% the virus was here in December.

It was in the open in China in November or early December and thousands and thousands flew to the USA in December

I haven't seen any convincing scientific evidence that the virus was here in December. If you have some, share it for me please.

 

[WTSooner]

It is close to 100% the virus was here in December.

It was in the open in China in November or early December and thousands and thousands flew to the USA in December

Agreed 1000%.

 

[WTSooner]

Tulsa World reported today that Oklahoma still has the 8th fewest CV cases per capita.

 

[steverocks35]

Let me rephrase that a little. Is it possible that someone traveled to the United States from China some time in December with SARS-CoV-2? Yes. Is it likely or even probable that it started community transmission at that point? No, it's extremely unlikely.

So when you say "here" you mean a person who had the virus may have traveled to the US. When I say "here" I mean the virus has established a foothold here and is being transmitted in the community. The first is possible as early as late December, I will concede that point. The second, in my opinion, is highly improbable, as early as late December.

 

[hoopsaustin]

Let me rephrase that a little. Is it possible that someone traveled to the United States from China some time in December with SARS-CoV-2? Yes. Is it likely or even probable that it started community transmission at that point? No, it's extremely unlikely.

So when you say "here" you mean a person who had the virus may have traveled to the US. When I say "here" I mean the virus has established a foothold here and is being transmitted in the community. The first is possible as early as late December, I will concede that point. The second, in my opinion, is highly improbable, as early as late December.

Why is it not probable? Explain to me.. bc you will undoubtedly tout covid as being extremely contagious, no?

 

[steverocks35]

Why is it not probable? Explain to me.. bc you will undoubtedly tout covid as being extremely contagious, no?

It's not probable because of the scientific studies and the tracing that have been done that have shown that the disease probably started community transmission in January. It's possible that someone with Covid-19 came here in December but was past the highly contagious stages of the disease or they didn't come into contact with many people. It's also true that if the disease had been in the community transmission phase in December then everything that happened would have happened a month earlier.

 

[steverocks35]

https://www.livescience.com/did-you-have-covid-19-in-january.html

Here's a good article on the topic.

 

[mict085]

It's not probable because of the scientific studies and the tracing that have been done that have shown that the disease probably started community transmission in January. It's possible that someone with Covid-19 came here in December but was past the highly contagious stages of the disease or they didn't come into contact with many people. It's also true that if the disease had been in the community transmission phase in December then everything that happened would have happened a month earlier.

Because we’ve done such a good job of testing and tracing? Especially early on? Or is it because all of the models and experts have been right all along? Or is it because you nor the people you follow have ever been wrong? Or is it because if something else?

 

[steverocks35]

Because we’ve done such a good job of testing and tracing? Especially early on? Or is it because all of the models and experts have been right all along? Or is it because you nor the people you follow have ever been wrong? Or is it because if something else?

It's totally because I've never been wrong, clearly!

 

[coolm]

if the outbreak has already happened and it's not contained then you can get away with sparse testing as a methodology if materials are your limiting factor as we suspected here. Once over that hump, though, you'll need specific site testing to further isolate it or the thing will ravage on and on. Thats where we're at right now in thought. It's based on quite a few assumptions though that are yet confirmed.

 

[steverocks35]

if the outbreak has already happened and it's not contained then you can get away with sparse testing as a methodology if materials are your limiting factor as we suspected here. Once over that hump, though, you'll need specific site testing to further isolate it or the thing will ravage on and on. Thats where we're at right now in thought. It's based on quite a few assumptions though that are yet confirmed.

Also, exhaustive contact tracing, and that's very labor-intensive.