March Madness and Covid-19

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BoulderSooner said:
that is asumming that all those infected number is correct there is a ton of evidence showing that it is not .. that it is wildly underreported ..

if double the number of people are infected then the death rate is way over stated ..
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If there are twice as many people who have the disease than are reported then the death rate drops to 4 1/2 times the rate of ALL people who have seasonal flu...

That’s still awful.
 
My take on this:

1. The level of misinformation and fact vs. fiction on this thing is insane. I am not an expert in any sense and only trying to listen to the various "experts" and apply basic logic. And depending on which "expert" you choose or which news source you choose, the answers are wildly different. It does appear clear that this is FAR more dangerous to the elderly and those that are already ill. The reports are also clear that less than 2% of the cases in China involve children and those affected have very mild symptoms-- that seems to be something everyone agrees on.

2. At some point we have to decide what we want to do-- arbitrarily closing stuff doesn't make much sense. Closing schools and then sending kids to daycare or the local park makes no sense. We aren't China. We don't have an authoritarian/Communist gov't that has the ability to lock EVERYONE down (even healthy people) in a situation like this. The only way we can probably truly get this thing to "go away" or be highly manageable is if we all stop human interaction and stay in our homes for the next 6-12 months. This is here to stay now a lot like H1N1 and other things that come along. It's not like if we shut down OKC for three weeks and then open it back up that we will have magically defeated the disease. And if we do go on longterm lockdown, the negative effects of that are likely to be greater than the virus itself. The economy would crumble-- there would be mass lay-offs and income would totally dry up for many, many people. That all might be worth it if this was a highly fatal disease or if it has crippling effects for the majority who caught it. But I think it's more likely this is just a new thing we have to learn to deal with and mitigate.

3. If the NCAA says no fans at game, they should just cancel the Tournament altogether. It would be totally lame and again, a little arbitrary. Teams would still be traveling on plane and in airports, staying in hotels, etc. And unless all of the fans stay locked at home instead of going to the arena, they will likely go out in the community and do other things. At an arena you are most likely to get infected by a sick person sitting very close to you-- not some guy in the upper level. So the risk isn't necessarily that much greater than if you ride the subway or take an uber or go to a restaurant. I understand the CYA nature of this and how no business/entity wants to be the one to hold an event and then find out someone sick attended/possibly spread it at said event.

4. I'm already a germaphobe and wash my hands raw daily; I also routinely wipe down tables and such when we go out to eat... so none of that is a big deal to me. I don't fear getting the virus either-- the science indicates to that myself and my immediate family would not suffer much more than a cold if we were to catch it-- I do fear for the elderly as this appears to be very tough on them. But mostly I fear the fear and what the "shutdown" mentality might inadvertently lead to.
 
OUSKINS said:
My take on this:

1. The level of misinformation and fact vs. fiction on this thing is insane. I am not an expert in any sense and only trying to listen to the various "experts" and apply basic logic. And depending on which "expert" you choose or which news source you choose, the answers are wildly different. It does appear clear that this is FAR more dangerous to the elderly and those that are already ill. The reports are also clear that less than 2% of the cases in China involve children and those affected have very mild symptoms-- that seems to be something everyone agrees on.

2. At some point we have to decide what we want to do-- arbitrarily closing stuff doesn't make much sense. Closing schools and then sending kids to daycare or the local park makes no sense. We aren't China. We don't have an authoritarian/Communist gov't that has the ability to lock EVERYONE down (even healthy people) in a situation like this. The only way we can probably truly get this thing to "go away" or be highly manageable is if we all stop human interaction and stay in our homes for the next 6-12 months. This is here to stay now a lot like H1N1 and other things that come along. It's not like if we shut down OKC for three weeks and then open it back up that we will have magically defeated the disease. And if we do go on longterm lockdown, the negative effects of that are likely to be greater than the virus itself. The economy would crumble-- there would be mass lay-offs and income would totally dry up for many, many people. That all might be worth it if this was a highly fatal disease or if it has crippling effects for the majority who caught it. But I think it's more likely this is just a new thing we have to learn to deal with and mitigate.

3. If the NCAA says no fans at game, they should just cancel the Tournament altogether. It would be totally lame and again, a little arbitrary. Teams would still be traveling on plane and in airports, staying in hotels, etc. And unless all of the fans stay locked at home instead of going to the arena, they will likely go out in the community and do other things. At an arena you are most likely to get infected by a sick person sitting very close to you-- not some guy in the upper level. So the risk isn't necessarily that much greater than if you ride the subway or take an uber or go to a restaurant. I understand the CYA nature of this and how no business/entity wants to be the one to hold an event and then find out someone sick attended/possibly spread it at said event.

4. I'm already a germaphobe and wash my hands raw daily; I also routinely wipe down tables and such when we go out to eat... so none of that is a big deal to me. I don't fear getting the virus either-- the science indicates to that myself and my immediate family would not suffer much more than a cold if we were to catch it-- I do fear for the elderly as this appears to be very tough on them. But mostly I fear the fear and what the "shutdown" mentality might inadvertently lead to.
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this is good stuff
 
Very well stated OUSkins. I'm in total agreement in all points. And I've been in health care for 25 years.....yet I'm still far from an "expert".:D
 
A lot of level-headed responses on this board regarding COVID-19. Here is my take on what makes this different than what we are used to with viruses like the flu:
  • It's much more contagious. According to the CDC and WHO, the spread rate for the flu is like .75 to 1.00 while COVID-19 is 2.5 to 3.0, meaning for each individual that has it, they will spread it to 3 to 4 more times the number of people than if they had the flu.
  • It's non-symptomatic for a much longer time. If you have the flu, according to the CDC, you will show symptoms within 1-4 days. That means you will be more cautious and those around you would be more cautious. With COVID-19, that period is about 14 days. Since it is also more contagious, it means you are spreading it around at a higher rate without knowing it.
  • There is no vaccine or treatment to prevent COVID-19, only comforting the systems. I know the stats show COVID-19 is more "deadly" but I would speculate if we didn't have Tami Flu or flu shots, the common flu would be far more "deadly". Once we don't have adequate testing, and if we knew who actually had it, it will end up lowering the fatality rates.
  • Young people are more immune to it that the common flu. This is what scientists need to focus on, IMO. Why are people, especially those under 19, able to fight this off far better than the common flu. Most of the deaths are those 70+, and those 50+ with an underlying condition.

The worst part about COVID-19, since it is highly contagious, there is no vaccine, and the incubation period is longer, the most effective method of stopping its spread has been quarantine. This has shut down events, schools, and even cities.

For the average healthy US citizen, this is the greatest thing to worry about- the impact of shutdowns and quarantines, both from an economic perspective and a personal supplies. We all need to ask ourselves, do we have adequate basic home and personal supplies if it came to my city?

Like Ada and OUSKINS said, just take precaution and you should be fine. Even if you do get it, if normally healthy, the statistics show you should be okay after time.

The COVID-19 is real and we should be concerned and not ignore the facts, but it doesn't mean we are all going to get sick or die.
 
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MJSooner said:
A lot of level-headed responses on this board regarding COVID-19. Here is my take on what makes this different than what we are used to with viruses like the flu:
  • It's much more contagious. According to the CDC and WHO, the spread rate for the flu is like .75 to 1.00 while COVID-19 is 2.5 to 3.0, meaning for each individual that has it, they will spread it to 3 to 4 more times the number of people than if they had the flu.
  • It's non-symptomatic for a much longer time. If you have the flu, according to the CDC, you will show symptoms within 1-4 days. That means you will be more cautious and those around you would be more cautious. With COVID-19, that period is about 14 days. Since it is also more contagious, it means you are spreading it around at a higher rate without knowing it.
  • There is no vaccine or treatment to prevent COVID-19, only comforting the systems. I know the stats show COVID-19 is more "deadly" but I would speculate if we didn't have Tami Flu or flu shots, the common flu would be far more "deadly". Once we don't have adequate testing, and if we knew who actually had it, it will end up lowering the fatality rates.
  • Young people are more immune to it that the common flu. This is what scientists need to focus on, IMO. Why are people, especially those under 19, able to fight this off far better than the common flu. Most of the deaths are those 70+, and those 50+ with an underlying condition.

The worst part about COVID-19, since it is highly contagious, there is no vaccine, and the incubation period is longer, the most effective method of stopping its spread has been quarantine. This has shut down events, schools, and even cities.

For the average healthy US citizen, this is the greatest thing to worry about- the impact of shutdowns and quarantines, both from an economic perspective and a personal supplies. We all need to ask ourselves, do we have adequate basic home and personal supplies if it came to my city?

Like Ada and OUSKINS said, just take precaution and you should be fine. Even if you do get it, if normally healthy, the statistics show you should be okay after time.

The COVID-19 is real and we should be concerned and not ignore the facts, but it doesn't mean we are all going to get sick or die.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. The speculation among scientists is that young people in China are more immune to Covid-19 because they are exposed to many more Coronaviruses than people elsewhere. (Coronavirus is a class of viruses that includes SARS and MERS)
 
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i am 40 and very healthy, and i am taking it serious. never realized how much i touch my face.

from what i read last night, you are not exactly out of the woods once recovered. some have been said to have a form of lung fibrosis, and one man died a month after release in china.

yes, chances are probably low to catch it, but i am not risking my long term and short term health when more and more cases are popping up each day across the states and world.
 
Some of you need to go take a statistics class. It is the same foolishness that causes people to fail to realize the impact officials have on games - a huge amount.

Think about it.

For US citizens, the two main places it hit severely so far were on a cruise ship and in a nursing home. How many kids were in one of those places? Very, very few. And of course, the impact is going to be worse for people already ill and infirm than for healthy people. All illnesses are. This is a virus with some similarity to flu,and lots of people of all ages catch it, get seriously ill from it, and some die from it. Don't be foolish: Use reasonable caution.

Many people use statistics like an inebriate uses a lamppost: More for support than illumination.
 
The first case of Covid-19 in Oklahoma was confirmed today in Tulsa
 
steverocks35 said:
Mortality rates so far have been in the 2-3% range which is at least 200 times more deadly than seasonal flu. But even at low mortality, if it spread to millions of people, which is likely, you're talking about thousands of deaths.

And the virus has likely mutated, it appears to be more aggressive now than when it first started spreading in Wuhan.

The point of all this being, it's not likely that the government is going to want thousands of people inside a small arena in a virus hot zone.

Even in the "case study" that guy cited, the Princess Cruise ship, his calculated mortality rate of 0.85% is still more than 8 times the mortality of seasonal flu. (Also, that's a completely anecdotal case he cited, so it's not scientific)
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hafta agree with stevo here. he's right. look back on how history views the flu of 1918.
 
stormspencer said:
From an epidemiological standpoint, I expect the mortality rate to significantly decrease because:
- Many people have the virus currently and don't know it (haven't been tested) and will survive.
- There are a segment of people who had the virus (who were never tested) and have already recovered.

Thus, from a metrics standpoint, I don't believe we have (or will have) an accurate mortality rate. With that said, it's concerning that it spreads so easily, but I also think we are on the right path to getting it under control through various measures (isolation, quarantine, etc.) as well as several medications being administered that have worked on a few patients.
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I agree. I expect the mortality rate to drop for a variety of reasons. However, there is definite reason for caution and concern. Some epidemiological models are predicting close to 70% penetration of the virus worldwide. That’s 70% of the worlds populations contracting the virus. Let’s look at just the US population of 330 million. 70% of that is over 200 million people. If the mortality rate is even half of what they think, or 1%, that’s over 2 million people dead in America alone. If the mortality rate drops to 0.5% that’s still 1 million people dead.

We are only on the front end of this deal. The very young, the very old, and the immunocompromised are at highest risk and will be the highest percentage of deaths. It may not be as bad as some are predicting, but it will be bad.
 
The common flu, in the US, had 32 million cases last year with 18000 deaths. So far, COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 3.4%. Do the math if we have 32 million cases based on 3.4%. However, since we don't have everybody being tested, and symptoms remain dormant for up to 14 days- 1-4 days for the common flu- a lot of people may have it without knowing. My guess is we will see an explosion in number of cases in US once people start getting tested, but deaths will remain close to the same.

Maybe a better read on the death rate is to look at South Korea. They have been the most aggressive country so far, administrating some 160,000 tests. As a result, they have discovered 6500 cases with 40 deaths. That is a fatality rate of 0.65%. Still more lethal than the common flu, but much different than the 3.4% that exists worldwide.

Tying it back to sports though, as we see the number of cases implode, we will continue to quarantines. Even if it is not as lethal as the common flu, it is much much more contagious. With no vaccine or drug treatment, the only way that seems to keep it from spreading is cancelling crowded events and quarantining people.

They cancelled SXSW today, Europe has prohibited fans at soccer games, Chicago State cancelled games and the NCAA has prohibited fans at the D3 tournament.
 
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NBA talking about playing games with no fans.
 
cvangild said:
So I see your stupid arguments are NOT just limited to OU basketball!

Good to know!!
Click to expand...

I see your stupid obsession with me also isn’t limited to basketball. Again, maybe message board posting isn’t the right activity for you.
 
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