What Is Your NCAA Tourney Seed Prediction?

[MichaelM]

I think we’re in but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get left out either. Probably a 10-12 seed right now.

Just as a few data points, every bracket on Bracket Matrix has OU in the 8-10 range right now except for one stray 7. 11 and 12 don't look to be in play except with a loss to TCU and also a surprising number of bid thieves.

 

[stormspencer]

Drake beat Indiana State in Arch Madness earlier. Thus, Indiana State has become the first bid stealer by not winning their conference.....Drake was not projected to be in the field previously.

 

[TEvans4Three]

after tech win, we no longer have any losses outside of Q1. We won every non q1 game we played. That’s going to compare very favorably to just about any 30+ ranked Net team.

Wow, great find.

 

[TINY]

Drake beat Indiana State in Arch Madness earlier. Thus, Indiana State has become the first bid stealer by not winning their conference.....Drake was not projected to be in the field previously.

I personally dont think Indiana state will be in the field.

 

[allday92]

I personally dont think Indiana state will be in the field.

Yeah, that Q4 loss to Illinois St. is not good..

 

[stormspencer]

I personally dont think Indiana state will be in the field.

I think they are still barely in the field.....for now. They are going to be sweating next Sunday. On bracketmatrix, they are listed almost unanimously as an 11-seed, but that was before their game today.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Here is a complete list of teams, via NET, with no Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses:

1​	Houston
2​	Purdue
3​	Uconn
6​	Auburn
40​	Oklahoma

 

[CoachTalk]

Just be in. Beat tcu would be nice.

 

[Boom Soon]

Yeah, that Q4 loss to Illinois St. is not good..

Especially cause they haven’t played anyone.

 

[IndySooner]

Using Bracket Matrix and seeding rules, this is what I think the bracket would look like. We were originally in Houston's bracket, which obviously cannot happen. Then we would have moved to Connecticut's bracket, which would have had us against Texas. So we move over to Purdue's bracket to play Colorado State and then Purdue.

 

[stormspencer]

Especially cause they haven’t played anyone.

I can make a case for Indiana State and it seems like there is always a mid-major like them that gets in despite losing their conference tournament. The good: #26 in NET and they have a 13-4 road/neutral record. They are also 5-5 in Q-1/Q-2 games. The bad: only one Q-1 win and they have a Q-4 loss. I could go either way with them as far as making the play-in game. It certainly will NOT be an injustice if they fail to make it.

And a broader point on this, all of these bubble teams have glaring warts or seem to have not done enough to warrant a bid.....of course, that is why they are bubble teams. Looking at the metrics, I can make a case for a lot of these borderline teams to get in.....while at the same time, making a case as to why they shouldn't get in.

 

[IndySooner]

That Michigan State loss at Indiana has to help us.

 

[dksooner]

That Michigan State loss at Indiana has to help us.

Indeed

 

[dksooner]

Here is a complete list of teams, via NET, with no Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses:

1​	Houston
2​	Purdue
3​	Uconn
6​	Auburn
40​	Oklahoma

Wow, know we have been up and down but that is surprising and impressive.

 

[allday92]

Wow, know we have been up and down but that is surprising and impressive.

Signs of progress. You have to learn to walk before you can run. Beating who you are supposed to beat night in and night out is a skill. Really impressive for a bunch of athletes who haven't developed and don't have much skill and for a head coach/coaching staff that do not know how to coach

 

[dksooner]

Signs of progress. You have to learn to walk before you can run. Beating who you are supposed to beat night in and night out is a skill. Really impressive for a bunch of athletes who haven't developed and don't have much skill and for a head coach/coaching staff that do not know how to coach

We are obviously the outlier, but no bad losses should get us in easily.

 

[dksooner]

Top dawg days are over, only horses now allday.

 

[Hecubus]

Get rid of the horse pigs again and make Top Dawg the official mascot already. If they have to have a schooner theme then dress up in a damn wagon costume and play Tomas the Wagon Wheel.

 

[WichitaSooner]

We are obviously the outlier, but no bad losses should get us in easily.

Again, there is a difference between “no bad losses” and no losses to bad teams. Getting blown out multiple times by teams in 30s and 40s in the NET is damaging to our resume because the committee wants to see how you do against tournament teams.

 

[WTSooner]

Again, there is a difference between “no bad losses” and no losses to bad teams. Getting blown out multiple times by teams in 30s and 40s in the NET is damaging to our resume because the committee wants to see how you do against tournament teams.

Some of that is just math too.

If we play a bunch of Q1 games, including quite a few against teams near the bottom, and not many Q2 or Q3 games, compare that a team that played less Q1 games, but a bunch of Q2 games against teams towards the top of Q2, say something like 8 games for OU and 16 games for the mystery team, of course they have a higher probability of losing more of those games than us. They played more. That is probably true of most every team outside of the Big 12.

I don't strongly follow what the NCAA Tourney committee says their criteria is, but I hope they are basing it more on wins than losses. We're having a tournament to find out what team is the best.....not what team can avoid losses against mid-level teams.