DSMok1
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Taking a look at OU Kansas through a statistical lens
It's been a while (years, actually) since I've done a statistical look at an OU game on here. OU's good again, and tonight's a really big game.
I'll be using Box Plus/Minus to estimate player impact on the game; it's a relatively new stat, one that I developed based on ASPM, and is now a primary stat on Basketball Reference for the NBA. The full writeup is at http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html
Let's take a look at the lineups.
Point Guards:
This is Kansas's biggest advantage in the game. Mason is a dominant point guard, in the conversation as the best point guard in college basketball. He can do everything on the offensive end, and is decent on D as well. Woodard can do pretty much all of the same things.... except shoot. Which is sort of important. One of Mason's weak points, though, is that he really doesn't shoot that much, with a usage only around 20%. As good as he is, it should be more. His shooting efficiency is far and away the best on his team.
Looking at the overall value stats:
So yes, Mason is elite on Offense, Woodard isn't.
Shooting/Combo Guards
Here is OU's big advantage. OU plays 3 guards most of the time, whereas Kansas only plays 2. Selden is the second guard, and he is not in the same class as Buddy or even Cousins. They both shoot and rebound a lot better than Selden, though Selden is a better passer. Devonte' Graham has impressive numbers, but he doesn't get much playing time as a freshman. Buddy and Cousins are also better on D than Selden, picking up quite a few more steals.
The value stats:
By Box Plus/Minus, Buddy is the best player in the game, edging out Frank Mason for that honor. Isaiah makes his mark more on defense, but both are quite a bit better than Selden.
Wings/Small Forwards
Hmmm... I don't see any OU players here. Kansas has 3 wings/stretch forwards, and OU doesn't have any. That makes things interesting with the matchups. Oubre is a highly-touted prospect, who started slowly, but has really come on recently. He's a dangerous player at the 3, and someone for OU has to guard him. He can shoot from deep and can get to the line as well. Of course, he has to guard someone smaller and quicker than him as well. Which he can do... look at those steal numbers! Oubre could be a problem for OU if he asserts himself. The other 2 guys are pure 3 point bombers, and only Greene actually makes them, but not too dangerous otherwise.
Box Plus/Minus has Oubre as the clear second-best player on Kansas's team. Keep an eye on him.
Posts
Here, OU has another solid advantage. Spangler and Thomas can both do it all in the post, scoring, rebounding, passing a bit, playing good defense (though not getting a ton of blocks.) After those 2, things are a bit sketchy, but at leas OU has two good posts.
Kansas, on the other hand, has Perry Ellis, who might be a bit overrated, and then a hodge-podge of additional options. They will almost always play 2 posts, but who the second one is will vary. Ellis jacks a lot of shots, but isn't very efficient. The other 2 have varying issues--Alexander won't pass and doesn't get steals, while Traylor misses his shots and turns the ball over a lot. All 3 are solid options, but I'd take Spangler and Thomas over them.
Value stats:
Overall, Spangler shows up a bit better than Thomas by BPM, with his better efficiency, 3 point range, and fewer turnovers making up for his fewer shots.
Overall Advantages
Point Guard: Big advantage Kansas
Shooting Guard: Big advantage OU
Wing: Big advantage Kansas
Posts: Slight advantage OU
Overall on personnel, OU probably has the slight edge in starters, with Kansas the slight edge off the bench. If I choose the expected starting/closing lineups for each team, OU has maybe a 1 point advantage.
On coaching, I'd give the slight edge to KU.
As teams, I'd say this is a wash. The game is in Allen Fieldhouse, so KU has to be favored significantly, but I'd favor OU if this was at home.
Team Styles
OU is a fast-paced team with a swarming defense, which can suffocate some teams. They're 5th in the nation in defense, and 24th in pace. Their offense lags somewhat, as they're only 56th on O. OU rebounds, steals, and blocks well, and doesn't foul much.
Kansas also plays a fairly fast pace, but is more balanced overall, coming in at 24th on O and 38th on D (all numbers from KenPom.com )
--
All in all, I expect a fast paced game, with lots of streaks. Can OU's defense rattle Kansas? That might be tough, particularly with such a good point guard. On the other hand, can Kansas control OU's energy?
Should be a good game!
It's been a while (years, actually) since I've done a statistical look at an OU game on here. OU's good again, and tonight's a really big game.
I'll be using Box Plus/Minus to estimate player impact on the game; it's a relatively new stat, one that I developed based on ASPM, and is now a primary stat on Basketball Reference for the NBA. The full writeup is at http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html
Let's take a look at the lineups.
Point Guards:
Code:
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║ Team ║ Player ║ Class ║ G ║ MP ║ TS% ║ eFG% ║ 3PAr ║ FTr ║ ORB% ║ DRB% ║ TRB% ║ AST% ║ STL% ║ BLK% ║ TOV% ║ USG% ║
╠══════════╬════════════════╬═══════╬════╬═════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╣
║ Kansas ║ Frank Mason ║ SO ║ 17 ║ 564 ║ 0.62 ║ 0.57 ║ 0.34 ║ 0.38 ║ 2.0 ║ 11.6 ║ 6.9 ║ 26.6 ║ 2.6 ║ 0.8 ║ 17.2 ║ 19.1 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Jordan Woodard ║ SO ║ 17 ║ 510 ║ 0.47 ║ 0.36 ║ 0.26 ║ 0.62 ║ 1.3 ║ 11.3 ║ 6.7 ║ 25.8 ║ 2.4 ║ 0.4 ║ 21.5 ║ 17.7 ║
╚══════════╩════════════════╩═══════╩════╩═════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╝Looking at the overall value stats:
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║ Team ║ Player ║ %Min ║ BPM ║ O-BPM ║ D-BPM ║ PER ║ WS/40 ║
╠══════════╬════════════════╬══════╬═════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╬═══════╣
║ Kansas ║ Frank Mason ║ 83% ║ 8.3 ║ 7.1 ║ 1.2 ║ 20.7 ║ 0.18 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Jordan Woodard ║ 74% ║ 2.8 ║ 0.1 ║ 2.8 ║ 13.0 ║ 0.13 ║
╚══════════╩════════════════╩══════╩═════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╩═══════╝Shooting/Combo Guards
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║ Team ║ Player ║ Class ║ G ║ MP ║ TS% ║ eFG% ║ 3PAr ║ FTr ║ ORB% ║ DRB% ║ TRB% ║ AST% ║ STL% ║ BLK% ║ TOV% ║ USG% ║
╠══════════╬═════════════════╬═══════╬════╬═════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╣
║ Oklahoma ║ Buddy Hield ║ JR ║ 17 ║ 527 ║ 0.59 ║ 0.56 ║ 0.55 ║ 0.24 ║ 5.8 ║ 12.3 ║ 9.4 ║ 12.9 ║ 2.4 ║ 0.9 ║ 11.2 ║ 27.1 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Isaiah Cousins ║ JR ║ 17 ║ 531 ║ 0.55 ║ 0.54 ║ 0.42 ║ 0.23 ║ 4.5 ║ 13.7 ║ 9.5 ║ 11.2 ║ 2.2 ║ 1.3 ║ 18.0 ║ 21.9 ║
║ Kansas ║ Wayne Selden ║ SO ║ 17 ║ 516 ║ 0.46 ║ 0.43 ║ 0.44 ║ 0.30 ║ 4.8 ║ 6.0 ║ 5.5 ║ 21.3 ║ 1.4 ║ 2.1 ║ 15.3 ║ 19.6 ║
║ Kansas ║ Devonte' Graham ║ FR ║ 10 ║ 164 ║ 0.58 ║ 0.47 ║ 0.29 ║ 1.24 ║ 2.8 ║ 10.2 ║ 6.5 ║ 23.5 ║ 3.3 ║ 0.0 ║ 11.5 ║ 18.6 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Dinjiyl Walker ║ JR ║ 17 ║ 233 ║ 0.49 ║ 0.45 ║ 0.43 ║ 0.30 ║ 3.4 ║ 7.4 ║ 5.6 ║ 11.8 ║ 2.5 ║ 0.9 ║ 18.1 ║ 24.8 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Frank Booker ║ SO ║ 14 ║ 178 ║ 0.42 ║ 0.37 ║ 0.75 ║ 0.31 ║ 3.2 ║ 7.0 ║ 5.2 ║ 8.0 ║ 2.6 ║ 0.6 ║ 12.5 ║ 20.2 ║
╚══════════╩═════════════════╩═══════╩════╩═════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╝Here is OU's big advantage. OU plays 3 guards most of the time, whereas Kansas only plays 2. Selden is the second guard, and he is not in the same class as Buddy or even Cousins. They both shoot and rebound a lot better than Selden, though Selden is a better passer. Devonte' Graham has impressive numbers, but he doesn't get much playing time as a freshman. Buddy and Cousins are also better on D than Selden, picking up quite a few more steals.
The value stats:
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║ Team ║ Player ║ %Min ║ BPM ║ O-BPM ║ D-BPM ║ PER ║ WS/40 ║
╠══════════╬═════════════════╬══════╬═════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╬═══════╣
║ Oklahoma ║ Buddy Hield ║ 77% ║ 9.6 ║ 7.9 ║ 1.7 ║ 24.9 ║ 0.24 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Isaiah Cousins ║ 78% ║ 5.4 ║ 2.4 ║ 3.0 ║ 16.6 ║ 0.16 ║
║ Kansas ║ Wayne Selden ║ 76% ║ 3.4 ║ 3.5 ║ -0.1 ║ 11.9 ║ 0.09 ║
║ Kansas ║ Devonte' Graham ║ 24% ║ 6.6 ║ 6.3 ║ 0.3 ║ 20.9 ║ 0.21 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Dinjiyl Walker ║ 34% ║ 0.5 ║ -0.4 ║ 0.9 ║ 11.3 ║ 0.10 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Frank Booker ║ 26% ║ 0.9 ║ 0.2 ║ 0.7 ║ 8.9 ║ 0.09 ║
╚══════════╩═════════════════╩══════╩═════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╩═══════╝By Box Plus/Minus, Buddy is the best player in the game, edging out Frank Mason for that honor. Isaiah makes his mark more on defense, but both are quite a bit better than Selden.
Wings/Small Forwards
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║ Team ║ Player ║ Class ║ G ║ MP ║ TS% ║ eFG% ║ 3PAr ║ FTr ║ ORB% ║ DRB% ║ TRB% ║ AST% ║ STL% ║ BLK% ║ TOV% ║ USG% ║
╠════════╬═══════════════════════╬═══════╬════╬═════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╣
║ Kansas ║ Kelly Oubre ║ FR ║ 17 ║ 309 ║ 0.56 ║ 0.53 ║ 0.39 ║ 0.41 ║ 7.0 ║ 20.5 ║ 13.8 ║ 12.1 ║ 3.7 ║ 0.7 ║ 14.1 ║ 23.0 ║
║ Kansas ║ Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ║ FR ║ 16 ║ 240 ║ 0.44 ║ 0.42 ║ 0.61 ║ 0.09 ║ 3.8 ║ 8.3 ║ 6.1 ║ 11.5 ║ 1.8 ║ 0.0 ║ 14.0 ║ 17.9 ║
║ Kansas ║ Brannen Greene ║ SO ║ 17 ║ 222 ║ 0.66 ║ 0.60 ║ 0.76 ║ 0.32 ║ 2.0 ║ 13.0 ║ 7.6 ║ 10.9 ║ 0.0 ║ 0.5 ║ 15.1 ║ 16.5 ║
╚════════╩═══════════════════════╩═══════╩════╩═════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╝Hmmm... I don't see any OU players here. Kansas has 3 wings/stretch forwards, and OU doesn't have any. That makes things interesting with the matchups. Oubre is a highly-touted prospect, who started slowly, but has really come on recently. He's a dangerous player at the 3, and someone for OU has to guard him. He can shoot from deep and can get to the line as well. Of course, he has to guard someone smaller and quicker than him as well. Which he can do... look at those steal numbers! Oubre could be a problem for OU if he asserts himself. The other 2 guys are pure 3 point bombers, and only Greene actually makes them, but not too dangerous otherwise.
Code:
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║ Team ║ Player ║ %Min ║ BPM ║ O-BPM ║ D-BPM ║ PER ║ WS/40 ║
╠════════╬═══════════════════════╬══════╬═════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╬═══════╣
║ Kansas ║ Kelly Oubre ║ 45% ║ 7.5 ║ 5.8 ║ 1.7 ║ 21.6 ║ 0.18 ║
║ Kansas ║ Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ║ 35% ║ 1.0 ║ 2.3 ║ -1.3 ║ 8.9 ║ 0.07 ║
║ Kansas ║ Brannen Greene ║ 33% ║ 3.8 ║ 5.7 ║ -1.9 ║ 15.2 ║ 0.15 ║
╚════════╩═══════════════════════╩══════╩═════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╩═══════╝Posts
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║ Team ║ Player ║ Class ║ G ║ MP ║ TS% ║ eFG% ║ 3PAr ║ FTr ║ ORB% ║ DRB% ║ TRB% ║ AST% ║ STL% ║ BLK% ║ TOV% ║ USG% ║
╠══════════╬═════════════════╬═══════╬════╬═════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╣
║ Oklahoma ║ Ryan Spangler ║ JR ║ 17 ║ 525 ║ 0.62 ║ 0.59 ║ 0.21 ║ 0.36 ║ 7.3 ║ 19.1 ║ 13.7 ║ 7.1 ║ 1.7 ║ 3.4 ║ 14.9 ║ 14.6 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ TaShawn Thomas ║ SR ║ 17 ║ 478 ║ 0.58 ║ 0.57 ║ 0.01 ║ 0.34 ║ 6.2 ║ 14.8 ║ 10.9 ║ 8.7 ║ 1.2 ║ 5.4 ║ 17.6 ║ 21.3 ║
║ Kansas ║ Perry Ellis ║ JR ║ 17 ║ 474 ║ 0.51 ║ 0.45 ║ 0.15 ║ 0.49 ║ 9.8 ║ 16.9 ║ 13.4 ║ 9.3 ║ 2.2 ║ 2.8 ║ 12.9 ║ 25.4 ║
║ Kansas ║ Jamari Traylor ║ JR ║ 16 ║ 324 ║ 0.50 ║ 0.46 ║ 0.00 ║ 0.38 ║ 9.5 ║ 13.4 ║ 11.5 ║ 9.8 ║ 2.0 ║ 6.8 ║ 20.6 ║ 16.5 ║
║ Kansas ║ Cliff Alexander ║ FR ║ 17 ║ 310 ║ 0.62 ║ 0.57 ║ 0.00 ║ 0.73 ║ 11.4 ║ 21.9 ║ 16.7 ║ 3.6 ║ 0.8 ║ 8.5 ║ 13.3 ║ 20.6 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Khadeem Lattin ║ FR ║ 16 ║ 183 ║ 0.43 ║ 0.41 ║ 0.02 ║ 0.28 ║ 11.2 ║ 16.7 ║ 14.2 ║ 5.0 ║ 1.6 ║ 7.6 ║ 10.3 ║ 15.8 ║
║ Kansas ║ Landen Lucas ║ SO ║ 16 ║ 166 ║ 0.44 ║ 0.42 ║ 0.00 ║ 0.46 ║ 12.3 ║ 21.5 ║ 16.9 ║ 4.6 ║ 1.8 ║ 3.3 ║ 31.0 ║ 17.5 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ D.J. Bennett ║ SR ║ 16 ║ 148 ║ 0.54 ║ 0.52 ║ 0.00 ║ 0.52 ║ 6.9 ║ 14.9 ║ 11.2 ║ 3.6 ║ 1.5 ║ 8.1 ║ 15.1 ║ 13.4 ║
╚══════════╩═════════════════╩═══════╩════╩═════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╝Here, OU has another solid advantage. Spangler and Thomas can both do it all in the post, scoring, rebounding, passing a bit, playing good defense (though not getting a ton of blocks.) After those 2, things are a bit sketchy, but at leas OU has two good posts.
Kansas, on the other hand, has Perry Ellis, who might be a bit overrated, and then a hodge-podge of additional options. They will almost always play 2 posts, but who the second one is will vary. Ellis jacks a lot of shots, but isn't very efficient. The other 2 have varying issues--Alexander won't pass and doesn't get steals, while Traylor misses his shots and turns the ball over a lot. All 3 are solid options, but I'd take Spangler and Thomas over them.
Value stats:
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║ Team ║ Player ║ %Min ║ BPM ║ O-BPM ║ D-BPM ║ PER ║ WS/40 ║
╠══════════╬═════════════════╬══════╬══════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╬═══════╣
║ Oklahoma ║ Ryan Spangler ║ 77% ║ 7.8 ║ 2.7 ║ 5.1 ║ 18.8 ║ 0.20 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ TaShawn Thomas ║ 70% ║ 5.3 ║ 0.6 ║ 4.7 ║ 19.4 ║ 0.17 ║
║ Kansas ║ Perry Ellis ║ 70% ║ 4.6 ║ 3.4 ║ 1.1 ║ 20.2 ║ 0.16 ║
║ Kansas ║ Jamari Traylor ║ 48% ║ 6.1 ║ 1.4 ║ 4.7 ║ 14.7 ║ 0.11 ║
║ Kansas ║ Cliff Alexander ║ 46% ║ 5.9 ║ 3.3 ║ 2.6 ║ 25.1 ║ 0.21 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ Khadeem Lattin ║ 27% ║ 4.0 ║ -1.5 ║ 5.5 ║ 14.5 ║ 0.15 ║
║ Kansas ║ Landen Lucas ║ 24% ║ -1.2 ║ -2.9 ║ 1.7 ║ 7.7 ║ 0.04 ║
║ Oklahoma ║ D.J. Bennett ║ 22% ║ 4.7 ║ -1.4 ║ 6.1 ║ 13.4 ║ 0.16 ║
╚══════════╩═════════════════╩══════╩══════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╩═══════╝Overall, Spangler shows up a bit better than Thomas by BPM, with his better efficiency, 3 point range, and fewer turnovers making up for his fewer shots.
Overall Advantages
Point Guard: Big advantage Kansas
Shooting Guard: Big advantage OU
Wing: Big advantage Kansas
Posts: Slight advantage OU
Overall on personnel, OU probably has the slight edge in starters, with Kansas the slight edge off the bench. If I choose the expected starting/closing lineups for each team, OU has maybe a 1 point advantage.
On coaching, I'd give the slight edge to KU.
As teams, I'd say this is a wash. The game is in Allen Fieldhouse, so KU has to be favored significantly, but I'd favor OU if this was at home.
Team Styles
OU is a fast-paced team with a swarming defense, which can suffocate some teams. They're 5th in the nation in defense, and 24th in pace. Their offense lags somewhat, as they're only 56th on O. OU rebounds, steals, and blocks well, and doesn't foul much.
Kansas also plays a fairly fast pace, but is more balanced overall, coming in at 24th on O and 38th on D (all numbers from KenPom.com )
--
All in all, I expect a fast paced game, with lots of streaks. Can OU's defense rattle Kansas? That might be tough, particularly with such a good point guard. On the other hand, can Kansas control OU's energy?
Should be a good game!
