MercedeSooner
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Here's a hot take....according to the metrics (I used Kenpom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics)...Texas is pretty much a bubble team this year. And it has nothing to do with tonight....Marquette is going to roll a lot of teams at home. But Texas' best non-conference win will either end up being against LSU on a neutral or UNC-Greensboro at home. They barely escaped against a bad Louisville team and the only two good teams they've actually played (UCONN and Marquette), they lose by double-digits...one of those a blowout.
It's early December and I'm certainly not saying Texas is in danger of missing the tournament....they have a helluva alot of talent. And they are going to have more than plenty of chances for Q-1/Q-2 wins in the Big 12, but they had better plan on playing better against the better teams on their schedule. And I'm not sold on their coach either. I've seen them play five or so games this year and something is a little off with them.
Don't think you're that far off, I don't know about bubble but they look like a middle range Big 12 team this year. They have talent but not like they have in years past especially depth wise. i don't think Abmas is good enough to carry them to wins against good competition night in night out.