March Madness and Covid-19

[stormspencer]

Numbers are going up in part because we're testing more. I've seen the data. A dude that works for us put together a very thorough analysis of the data we have, and presented it in a very unbiased way last week. Numbers are going up because we're testing more, but a lower percentage of those tested are testing positive.

Can't just look at the raw data and gain much from it, for a number of reasons. Bias. Inaccurate or inconsistent reporting. My co-worker did some smoothing by averaging weekly numbers, and by nearly every metric, the US, OK, and AR are all "improving."

https://rt.live/

And that graph is another big piece of positive news. We'll see how it changes with things opening up, but this thing never approached the R Naught of 3-5 that some on here were predicting back in March. It only reached 1.2 in a couple of states. Most states are below 1 currently which is good. That with pretty limited quarantine that some around here STILL say wasn't enough.

The misinformation around this thing is still crazy. There are some bad areas, yes. We are probably going to see a small 2nd wave with things re-opening, yes. And yes, there is still a need to avoid large gatherings. But most of the country, if you aren't in that 65 or older group, your odds of dying from this are pretty danged small. And there is still a lot of evidence (even if unproven at this time) to suggest a lot more folks than we currently know have been infected with this.

This should be trumpeted. I can't speak for other areas, but in Texas we are testing more, thus the number of new cases is obviously increasing. However, the % of positive cases per test is actually going down. For example, if you're testing 4,000 people per day and uncovering 50 new cases, the positive % rate would actually be higher in the above scenario than if you were testing 10,000 people per day and uncovering 100 new cases. At least for now, as we ramp up testing, these are the initial findings.

By providing context to what "more positive cases" actually means in the numbers is not being reported to the degree to which it should. And of course, I'm not surprised given the fear peddling that is infectious amongst our major reporting outlets.

 

[mict085]

I Keep seeing alarmist people claiming that COVID is 10x more deadly than the flu. That’s simply not true. COVID is more contagious than the flu. The death rates are similar. The death rate of the flu is around 0.1-0.2%. As we get more data, the COVID death rate continues to fall, estimated between 0.3-0.6%. Nowhere near the 3-4% death rate the alarmists were claiming earlier.

 

[steverocks35]

I Keep seeing alarmist people claiming that COVID is 10x more deadly than the flu. That’s simply not true. COVID is more contagious than the flu. The death rates are similar. The death rate of the flu is around 0.1-0.2%. As we get more data, the COVID death rate continues to fall, estimated between 0.3-0.6%. Nowhere near the 3-4% death rate the alarmists were claiming earlier.

You should go volunteer in a closed Covid-19 unit then, without PPE. Since it’s not deadly you’d just be wasting the PPE anyway.

 

[mict085]

I haven’t been here much because I worked my ass off all week on Covid-19 related things. I see the numbers going up all over the country. Yesterday we had a 9/11 of Covid-19 deaths, about 3,000. And I still see people saying stupid sh!t comparing it to the flu or that the numbers aren’t correct. Well actually the numbers aren’t correct, the number of deaths from this are likely far higher than has been counted so far. You look at states like Iowa and Georgia, and you can see that the virus is on the move. We have had a small taste of it so far in Oklahoma but our number of cases is still on the rise. I don’t understand why people can’t even be bothered to wear a mask in public or social distance. Is that too much to ask? I am predicting a second wave, exactly like the 1918 pandemic. The differences between the two pandemics are that the Spanish flu in 1918 was not as deadly as Covid-19 but their medical care was not as advanced as ours is so it somewhat evens out.

Oh and here’s a good article about why you can’t really compare Covid-19 deaths to flu deaths, although stupid people keep doing it. If it seems like I’m frustrated it’s because I am. We have to be the least disciplined society in history.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

The reporting is inaccurate. The delays in reporting end up making these kind of alarmist numbers. That’s likely several days worth of alleged COVID deaths being reported in 1 day. This kind of crap has been going on from day 1 and it’s ridiculous. The reporting is flawed and the data is being manipulated. Also, many “scientists” and “lab rats” are trying to make a career out of writing BS articles in the hopes of advancing their careers. Nevermind the truth or accurate reporting.

 

[mict085]

You should go volunteer in a closed Covid-19 unit then, without PPE. Since it’s not deadly you’d just be wasting the PPE anyway.

Listen man. I am on the front lines. I didn’t say it wasn’t deadly. I said it was similar to the flu. You are over the top with the end of the world scenario. I’m not sitting in a lab. I take care of patients and have intubated many COVID patients in the ICU. I can tell you people are being furloughed or terminated because the hospitals are empty. Yes, we need more PPE and testing, but the hospital census is down and some hospitals will be forced to close because they haven’t been able to perform elective cases. So, let’s get back to work and manage the disease logically.

 

[steverocks35]

The reporting is inaccurate. The delays in reporting end up making these kind of alarmist numbers. That’s likely several days worth of alleged COVID deaths being reported in 1 day. This kind of crap has been going on from day 1 and it’s ridiculous. The reporting is flawed and the data is being manipulated. Also, many “scientists” and “lab rats” are trying to make a career out of writing BS articles in the hopes of advancing their careers. Nevermind the truth or accurate reporting.

Let’s see.. I can listen to the experts I interact with on a daily basis about this... OR I could listen to you. Tough decision.

 

[steverocks35]

Listen man. I am on the front lines. I didn’t say it wasn’t deadly. I said it was similar to the flu. You are over the top with the end of the world scenario.

It’s not similar to the flu and it’s irresponsible to say so.

 

[SoonerJK12]

Predicting a second wave stuff is just dumb to me. Of course there is going to be a second wave. And a third next year. And a fourth the next year. We are looking at something that may never go away.

People will continue to be infected. It’s an infectious disease. Without a vaccine.

 

[SoonerJK12]

Some good news, hospitalizations in Oklahoma are the lowest they have been in a month.

 

[mict085]

It’s not similar to the flu and it’s irresponsible to say so.

It’s irresponsible to inaccurately report the data and take part in fear mongering.

 

[WTSooner]

Let’s see.. I can listen to the experts I interact with on a daily basis about this... OR I could listen to you. Tough decision.

Give me a break. There are plenty of experts that are putting out information that you don't agree with. But you just ignore them, and try to punch holes in their argument. But if they agree with you, oh boy, they are the smartest experts ever.

It's silly.

 

[WTSooner]

The reporting is inaccurate. The delays in reporting end up making these kind of alarmist numbers. That’s likely several days worth of alleged COVID deaths being reported in 1 day. This kind of crap has been going on from day 1 and it’s ridiculous. The reporting is flawed and the data is being manipulated. Also, many “scientists” and “lab rats” are trying to make a career out of writing BS articles in the hopes of advancing their careers. Nevermind the truth or accurate reporting.

Yep. That is why I really liked the analysis that my co-worker put together. It was funny, I can't remember, but I think for something like the last 3-4 weeks the most deaths reported in each of those weeks was on a Monday. I hate Mondays as much as the next person, but I seriously doubt COVID-19 patients are waiting until Mondays to die. It's why the data on a day to day basis isn't very telling. Almost need to average out entire weeks to be able to track this thing. And when you do that, it's decreasing in every way you'd want it to be decreasing.

 

[steverocks35]

Give me a break. There are plenty of experts that are putting out information that you don't agree with. But you just ignore them, and try to punch holes in their argument. But if they agree with you, oh boy, they are the smartest experts ever.

It's silly.

You’re right, I should probably put more faith in the experts at TechStartups dot com.

 

[Eielson]

We’ve actually hit a wall on testing. This idea that we are testing massive amounts of people is just not true. I can’t even get myself or any of the staff tested, despite practically begging for it, and I work for the federal government. We need to double our testing, at least, maybe triple and also do massive contact tracing before we should think about “reopening.” But I realize that’s not going to happen.

We are swimming in tests up here. And everybody at my hospital was encouraged to get antibody tested if they wanted, which is the case at quite a few places.

 

[steverocks35]

We are swimming in tests up here. And everybody at my hospital was encouraged to get antibody tested if they wanted, which is the case at quite a few places.

We are not swimming in tests at all and there is lots of buzz about most of the antibody testing being too nonspecific to be useful. Also, we don’t know if having antibodies makes you immune or not yet so our lead pathologist is recommending we don’t do any antibody testing until it all shakes out, maybe 6 months or more.

 

[Eielson]

We are not swimming in tests at all

I'm sure you aren't. But we are.

 

[steverocks35]

I'm sure you aren't. But we are.

Can you send some my way? lol

 

[tooney]

YMCA Of Greater OKC Prepares To Reopen Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

https://www.news9.com/story/5eab3dc...-prepares-to-reopen-amid-coronavirus-pandemic



Trump raises COVID-19 fatality projection to as high as 100,000

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-coronavirus-fatality-projection-100000/

 

[SoonerJK12]

I haven’t been here much because I worked my ass off all week on Covid-19 related things. I see the numbers going up all over the country. Yesterday we had a 9/11 of Covid-19 deaths, about 3,000. And I still see people saying stupid sh!t comparing it to the flu or that the numbers aren’t correct. Well actually the numbers aren’t correct, the number of deaths from this are likely far higher than has been counted so far. You look at states like Iowa and Georgia, and you can see that the virus is on the move. We have had a small taste of it so far in Oklahoma but our number of cases is still on the rise. I don’t understand why people can’t even be bothered to wear a mask in public or social distance. Is that too much to ask? I am predicting a second wave, exactly like the 1918 pandemic. The differences between the two pandemics are that the Spanish flu in 1918 was not as deadly as Covid-19 but their medical care was not as advanced as ours is so it somewhat evens out.

Oh and here’s a good article about why you can’t really compare Covid-19 deaths to flu deaths, although stupid people keep doing it. If it seems like I’m frustrated it’s because I am. We have to be the least disciplined society in history.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

So comparing number of COVID deaths to the flu is out, but comparing deaths to 9/11 is reasonable. Got it.

 

[steverocks35]

So comparing number of COVID deaths to the flu is out, but comparing deaths to 9/11 is reasonable. Got it.

You're right, that's also a bad comparison, Covid-19 has killed orders of magnitude more people.