March Madness and Covid-19

[SoonerBounce13]

I feel your pain dude. It's a quandry. Luckily my immediate and semi-immediate family is all in agreement. It's the outliers in Kentucky and some in Indiana and Michigan who remain skeptical and take the approach you articulate.
And, of course, it seems like everyone around me in OKC.

Bounce - you're using too much information. the ohio governor's approach is to show a front of solidarity for safety while still maintaining some tolerance for his detractors (like that Sheriff Joe or whatever his name was). He says it is in the hope that HIS focus will be enough to make a high enough percentage of people follow his view so that they get a foothold on the problem. Will it work in the end? I dont know. We have a mixture of micro and macro such that getting too deep into either blurs a good decision. At that point I always defer to safety. Thats why I think he's doing the best job.

Who am I pointing my finger at? any of you who claim it to be overblown or a hoax or knee jerk or unnecessary. any minimization. we are still in need of performing the FIRST step for SWIMS procedures: stop the spill. We havent done that yet so we can't get to step 2.

looking at death numbers and comparing is using too much information about the effectiveness and safety?

I don't understand

 

[coolm]

I'm not going anywhere with it. I have pointed out repeatedly that deaths lag hospitalizations which lag cases, and that huge surges in cases, like we are seeing all throughout the South and Southwest will lead to increased hospitalizations and then increased deaths. You seem to think that the big increases are due to increased testing, although the positivity rates tell us that isn't the case, and now the deaths are starting to tell us that isn't the case as well.

You seem bound and determined to minimize this crisis in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

this was good stuff here steve.

 

[steverocks35]

this was good stuff here steve.

Thanks, pretty basic stuff.

 

[Darwin]

It isn't blue or red!!! It is about personal behavior, regardless of political affiliation which doesn't even cover a 3rd of us all. Thought I would check in here for the first time in months. I am only a little surprised that the conversation hasn't seemed to evolve. One side in constant state of denial filled with various conspiracy theory's while looking for anything out of line in the vast oceans of information pointing at the reasons the virus is out of control. That side of this tries to make it a red blue thing instead of science and health professional thing. They want everything to be a red blue thing, even nascar.

There are red and blue states out of control so it's not leadership. That's why I said it's personal behavior. Some people chose to ignore the best health professionals on a health issue. It doesn't matter who they listened to instead. I will offer the opinion that if all our government leaders listened to the best health care professionals and tried to lead and tell everyone to follow those recommendations then likely more people would have followed. Would that have changed the path we are on IMO yes.

And finally it is pathetic this country in 6 months, has not caught up with the needs of the medical facilities and courageous staff fighting to keep people safe, which includes testing.

 

[stormspencer]

Moving the goalposts to "well the deaths won't reach New York/New Jersey levels." You don't know that.

I'm not going anywhere with it. I have pointed out repeatedly that deaths lag hospitalizations which lag cases, and that huge surges in cases, like we are seeing all throughout the South and Southwest will lead to increased hospitalizations and then increased deaths. You seem to think that the big increases are due to increased testing, although the positivity rates tell us that isn't the case, and now the deaths are starting to tell us that isn't the case as well.

You seem bound and determined to minimize this crisis in the face of all the evidence to the contrary.

I don't disagree with much of your first paragraph outside of increased testing HAS contributed to more positive cases being identified. The more you test, the more you will find positive....and yes positivity rate is important and has increased as well. The other piece to this is that treatment and therapeutics have improved and less deaths per positive case will continue to be the trend. But in the end, other than *****ing and whining, there is nothing that you can do about it.....it is what is it.

I'm not minimizing anything, I'm putting the numbers in perspective and providing framework.....while not participating in the melodrama. For example, Florida had 15,000 positive cases last Saturday, but conducted almost 100,000 tests or 147,000 depending upon which site you draw from....just over a 15% or 10% positivity rate. That's still way too high, but it nonetheless provides more context as to the situation we are in. For the time being, we are going to have to find a way to adapt to and live with this thing. A vaccine or herd immunity will hopefully be here eventually, but it won't be anytime soon.

I prefer the entire picture....which is why we are rarely brought attention to the number of people who have recovered from the virus (near 1.6 million). Yet another component to this.

 

[coolm]

looking at death numbers and comparing is using too much information about the effectiveness and safety?

I don't understand

well, when you have something that we're still studying and you wish to take a "less coarse" plan of action then you base the plan you do take on what you think are the key factors. But as we have discovered there are other factors that may intervene or we may not be comparing apples to apples. You go down this rabbit hole of other possibilities trying to sharpen your tool and you end up finding out that you needed the more coarse approach because blah (fill in the blah). that was the entire "pass the buck" strategy for closing. when time is a factor because of a threshold issue OR because time changes the variables then it's very very often the best "coarse" of action to take the safest, simplest solution available and do it quickly. If I see steam in the Reactor compartment eyeglass I immediately scram THEN find out why. I could measure some different temps and get some different observations to perhaps close a system or loop and keep the plant running ... but by the time I did that a primary rupture would have already uncovered the core.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

And finally it is pathetic this country in 6 months, has not caught up with the needs of the medical facilities and courageous staff fighting to keep people safe, which includes testing.

interesting take

 

[WTSooner]

For the 8 billionth time, death is not the only possible life-changing bad outcome from catching Covid-19.

https://www.google.com/search?q=long-term%20effects%20of%20covid-19&cad=h

They don't even know how CV is transmitted yet (is it airborne, how transmittable from touching surfaces, etc), so you'll have to excuse me for not getting too bent out of shape over some stories of post-recovery side effects, when even those seem to change week to week.

Maybe there are side-effects after recovery. But we certainly don't know that at this point.

 

[sheepdogs1]

They don't even know how CV is transmitted yet (is it airborne, how transmittable from touching surfaces, etc), so you'll have to excuse me for not getting too bent out of shape over some stories of post-recovery side effects, when even those seem to change week to week.

Maybe there are side-effects after recovery. But we certainly don't know that at this point.

All these stories of possible side effects are a bit premature at this point for our plate is full as is and these possible side effects might not be the real thing. I mean why not scare people more than they already are. When it is proven that eating licorice leads to blindness then release the results and bring it to the attention of the people instead of scaring the wits out of people that something might be possible. Actually, maybe it was masturbation and not licorice, but you get the point.

 

[steverocks35]

They don't even know how CV is transmitted yet (is it airborne, how transmittable from touching surfaces, etc), so you'll have to excuse me for not getting too bent out of shape over some stories of post-recovery side effects, when even those seem to change week to week.

Maybe there are side-effects after recovery. But we certainly don't know that at this point.

You're right, we don't know for sure what the long-term effects of this are, so maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't rush head-long into reopening schools and getting rid of active measures to combat the spread until we do know more.

Maybe you should be a little more bent out of shape.

 

[steverocks35]

All these stories of possible side effects are a bit premature at this point for our plate is full as is and these possible side effects might not be real the real thing. I mean why not scare people more than they already are. When it is proven that eating licorice leads to blindness then release the results and bring it to the attention of the people instead of scaring the wits out of people that something might be possible.

Yes let's PROVE that this doesn't have harmful long-term sequelae before we take it more seriously. Great idea.

 

[coolm]

we aren't sure about the side-effects so let's go ahead and open'er back up?

really? you dont see the problem with this?

 

[SoonerBounce13]

we aren't sure about the side-effects so let's go ahead and open'er back up?

really? you dont see the problem with this?

It’s just as silly to want everything to be locked down because we don’t know the side effects.

It’s not black and white. There is middle geound

 

[coolm]

It’s just as silly to want everything to be locked down because we don’t know the side effects.

It’s not black and white. There is middle geound

not when lives are at stake.

 

[sheepdogs1]

It’s just as silly to want everything to be locked down because we don’t know the side effects.

It’s not black and white. There is middle geound

I mean how long would it take to understand the full implications. I see how alcohol is beneficial then it's not then it is then it's not. I thought red meat was unhealthier than chicken then I see that was a red flag. It's a silly game to speak about the unknown as if it is a given when it plainly is not. This idea that possible side effects are now the impetus to take this virus seriously is faulty. It is simple. Just ask them to place the cell phone in the drawer because it might be unsafe. No one would listen.

 

[steverocks35]

I mean how long would it take to understand the full implications. I see how alcohol is beneficial then it's not then it is then it's not. I thought red meat was unhealthier than chicken then I see that was a red flag. It's a silly game to speak about the unknown as if it is a given when it plainly is not. This idea that possible side effects are now the impetus to take this virus seriously is faulty.

<Head-desk>

 

[coolm]

It’s just as silly to want everything to be locked down because we don’t know the side effects.

It’s not black and white. There is middle geound

I understand it's not black & white. thats why you make it one by following the simplest and most effective remedy if possible. Have you ever been in mass casualty situations? Sometimes, often times, you have to make coarse decisions when a proper triage could have more disastrous consequences.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Moderna's phase 1 results.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-phase-1-results-show-210000747.html

 

[SoonerBounce13]

not when lives are at stake.

So you support shutting absolutely everything down then?


Are lives lost by the flu less valuable than by Covid?

 

[sheepdogs1]

So you support shutting absolutely everything down then?


Are lives lost by the flu less valuable than by Covid?

Washington Post reports that suicide increased by 40% last month. Are their lives of no value to these people. Pick and choose is their favorite game.