March Madness and Covid-19

[steverocks35]

We could model some things from South Korea and China, like more testing for instance, to help stop the outrageous spread, but there are some extreme measures those countries took that would never work here.

For example, China put trackers and GPS/QR codes on its citizens and enacted mandatory quarantines for entire metropolitan areas. They also used facial recognition on city cameras to see who violated curfews. They tracked you and if you were found to be in violation, you risked fine or arrest.

South Korea published who had the infection online and tracked its movements and published it online. They didn't include personal information on what they disclosed, but the only way they would have that info is through a tracking device.

Extreme measures in a country founded on personal freedom and liberties would be hard to implement. Once you give those up, even in a case of extreme emergency, it is hard to get back as a citizen. Look at personal surveillance and tracking after 9/11. Almost nineteen years later, those are still in place.

Not only that, but in South Korea if you have a note from your physician the testing is free, and if you are positive you are treated and hospitalized at no cost to you. If you don't have a note from your doctor you can still get tested for $130.

In South Korea, you can get tested at drive-thru clinics all over the country, and get the test results by text message the next day. The problem with doing that here is that our country is vast, much larger than most people realize. We could do it, but it's going to take a Herculean effort on the part of the federal government and the states.

 

[steverocks35]

Update: The United States now has more than 3,000 cases nationwide

 

[sheepdogs1]

Not only that, but in South Korea if you have a note from your physician the testing is free, and if you are positive you are treated and hospitalized at no cost to you. If you don't have a note from your doctor you can still get tested for $130.

In South Korea, you can get tested at drive-thru clinics all over the country, and get the test results by text message the next day. The problem with doing that here is that our country is vast, much larger than most people realize. We could do it, but it's going to take a Herculean effort on the part of the federal government and the states.

South Korea has a population density in excess of 1300/square mile while for us it is less than 100. You would think that pop. density plays a role in the spread of the virus which is a benefit to us as opposed to a hindrance. All I'm pointing out is the effectiveness as opposed to it existing.

And can you explain how publishing names really helps for it is only good if people read these names. I mean what % of the population utilized this data base? Don't we do the same thing for convicted child molestors, but who knows who the child molestors are.

 

[steverocks35]

South Korea has a population density in excess of 1300/square mile while for us it is less than 100. You would think that pop. density plays a role in the spread of the virus which is a benefit to us as opposed to a hindrance.

Italy has about 500 people/square mile

 

[MJSooner]

Italy has about 500 people/square mile

To see the impact on the virus of density, quarantines, and social distancing, there was a great article in the Washington Post (seems like an oxymoron, right?) that visually shows how this spreads. Scroll through the article and just look at the visuals- you don't have to read it to get the impact.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

[steverocks35]

To see the impact on the virus of density, quarantines, and social distancing, there was a great article in the Washington Post (seems like an oxymoron, right?) that visually shows how this spreads. Scroll through the article and just look at the visuals- you don't have to read it to get the impact.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Read that article this morning, it's fascinating...

 

[sheepdogs1]

Italy has about 500 people/square mile

I understand that but chances are Italy was well behind the curve and was caught blindsided. And I think you pointed out how Italy has an aged population which is rather affectionate and these two illustrations could have played a role in their unenviable situation.

 

[steverocks35]

I understand that but chances are Italy was well behind the curve and was caught blindsided. And I think you pointed out how Italy has an aged population which is rather affectionate and these two illustrations could have played a role in their unenviable situation.

Your population density idea has merit but is undercut by the experts. If we didn't have mass transit, airplanes, and automobiles low population density would probably come into play.

Also here in America, we are also way behind the curve, our testing regimen is still very insufficient. We should have been testing heavily a month ago. I work in the industry and when we tried to get people tested last week, there was no way to do it, nobody knew anything , and there was no place to send specimens, and not only that, nobody even knew what the proper specimen was to collect, and I work for the federal government!

We just got guidance and a place to send specimens this week!

 

[MJSooner]

I understand that but chances are Italy was well behind the curve and was caught blindsided. And I think you pointed out how Italy has an aged population which is rather affectionate and these two illustrations could have played a role in their unenviable situation.

The part that has caused health officials and government officials to take such extreme measures as shutdowns and cancellations, and a little state of panic, is the almost identical tracking we have shown compared to Italy, on number of cases.

If you overlay the number of cases in the US beginning on 3/4 to Italy on 2/22 and it is almost identical. This is despite the fact we have a less dense population, less smoking, lower average age, private health insurance, and a better healthcare system.

I get the fact our population is 5.5 times larger skews the weight of the numbers, but the similarty is crazy.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Your population density idea has merit but is undercut by the experts. If we didn't have mass transit, airplanes, and automobiles low population density would probably come into play.

Also here in America, we are also way behind the curve, our testing regimen is still very insufficient. We should have been testing heavily a month ago. I work in the industry and when we tried to get people tested last week, there was no way to do it, nobody knew anything , and there was no place to send specimens, and not only that, nobody even knew what the proper specimen was to collect, and I work for the federal government!

We just got guidance and a place to send specimens this week!

Not all segments of society have mass transportation thus it applies to some while not applying to others. It is basically location dependent.

I understand that South Korea has tested many of its citizens but i have heard that 6% of those tested were positive results.

 

[steverocks35]

The part that has caused health officials and government officials to take such extreme measures as shutdowns and cancellations, and a little state of panic, is the almost identical tracking we have shown compared to Italy, on number of cases.

If you overlay the number of cases in the US beginning on 3/4 to Italy on 2/22 and it is almost identical. This is despite the fact we have a less dense population, less smoking, lower average age, private health insurance, and a better healthcare system.

I get the fact our population is 5.5 times larger skews the weight of the numbers, but the similarty is crazy.

Yep, extrapolate that out a couple of weeks and that's when you have more critically ill people than you have ICU beds and ventilators. When the doctors in Italy started having to literally decide who lives and who dies.

 

[steverocks35]

Not all segments of society have mass transportation thus it applies to some while not applying to others. It is basically location dependent.

I understand that South Korea has tested many of its citizens but i have heard that 6% of those tested were positive results.

But we have automobiles, your thesis doesn't work based on the data.

 

[sheepdogs1]

The part that has caused health officials and government officials to take such extreme measures as shutdowns and cancellations, and a little state of panic, is the almost identical tracking we have shown compared to Italy, on number of cases.

If you overlay the number of cases in the US beginning on 3/4 to Italy on 2/22 and it is almost identical. This is despite the fact we have a less dense population, less smoking, lower average age, private health insurance, and a better healthcare system.

I get the fact our population is 5.5 times larger skews the weight of the numbers, but the similarty is crazy.

I think Italy is the worst case scenario when it comes to a nation fighting the outcome of the virus (Iran might be a close second). I currently have a hard time believing we will be mimicking them in a perfectly correlated manner. And on a side note, can you make a decent home for a lonely and scared skunk?

 

[sheepdogs1]

But we have automobiles, your thesis doesn't work based on the data.

So does South Korea.

 

[steverocks35]

So does South Korea.

And? I already told you why South Korea is not like America and it has nothing to do with population density. Literally zero experts that I've read have mentioned population density as a factor.

Here's some reading material for you:
https://www.citylab.com/life/2020/03/coronavirus-data-cities-rural-areas-pandemic-health-risks/607783/

 

[steverocks35]

More reading material:
https://time.com/5801726/coronavirus-models-forecast/

 

[MJSooner]

I think Italy is the worst case scenario when it comes to a nation fighting the outcome of the virus (Iran might be a close second). I currently have a hard time believing we will be mimicking them in a perfectly correlated manner. And on a side note, can you make a decent home for a lonely and scared skunk?

I agree they are a worst-case scenario, especially from a death rate. We are in a better place it appears. Our fatality rate is only 2%, compared to 3.9% globally and 7% in Italy. This includes all the cases at the nursing home. Not that you can exclude a sample in statistics as they would no longer be accurate (if you could I could make Reaves a 50% 3pt shooter), but if you remove that one facility, our death rate is only about 1%. Yes, worse than H1N1 and common influenza, but not as drastic as the reaction and panic.

This is before full-scale testing that would inflate the number of cases, without inflating deaths. Our cases will rise, but it won't be a bad thing. We are the third most populous country in the world after all.

And, LOL on the skunk. Maybe Alex Brown could help and adopt in his retirement. The game thread was fun.

 

[steverocks35]

I agree they are a worst-case scenario, especially from a death rate. We are in a better place it appears. Our fatality rate is only 2%, compared to 3.9% globally and 7% in Italy. This includes all the cases at the nursing home. Not that you can exclude a sample in statistics as they would no longer be accurate (if you could I could make Reaves a 50% 3pt shooter), but if you remove that one facility, our death rate is only about 1%. Yes, worse than H1N1 and common influenza, but not as drastic as the reaction and panic.

This is before full-scale testing that would inflate the number of cases, without inflating deaths. Our cases will rise, but it won't be a bad thing. We are the third most populous country in the world after all.

And, LOL on the skunk. Maybe Alex Brown could help and adopt in his retirement. The game thread was fun.

Haha, the skunk was really funny.

 

[sheepdogs1]

And? I already told you why South Korea is not like America and it has nothing to do with population density. Literally zero experts that I've read have mentioned population density as a factor.

Here's some reading material for you:
https://www.citylab.com/life/2020/03/coronavirus-data-cities-rural-areas-pandemic-health-risks/607783/

The number of those infected/1000 is less in states like N.Dakota, and so, on as compared to the highly densely populated areas. If density is not a player then why are sporting events and the like being canned. What am I missing here (be nice!).

 

[steverocks35]

The number of those infected/1000 is less in states like N.Dakota, and so, on as compared to the highly densely populated areas. If density is not a player then why are sporting events and the like being canned. What am I missing here (be nice!).

Yes it's less right now, but eventually the virus will get there. This is about flattening the curve, nothing will stop the virus, it's going to infect a large portion of the population. What we are trying to do is spread out the infections over a longer period of time so they don't overwhelm the healthcare system. That's why you cancel events with large crowds and sporting events. You want to slow the rate of infection down and spread it out over a longer period of time so you don't get that big spike.

What happened in Italy was that big spike, and that's why their healthcare system is overwhelmed, and our spike in cases is mirroring their early spike and it's got us very alarmed.