March Madness and Covid-19

[MJSooner]

Yes it's less right now, but eventually the virus will get there. This is about flattening the curve, nothing will stop the virus, it's going to infect a large portion of the population. What we are trying to do is spread out the infections over a longer period of time so they don't overwhelm the healthcare system. That's why you cancel events with large crowds and sporting events. You want to slow the rate of infection down and spread it out over a longer period of time so you don't get that big spike.

What happened in Italy was that big spike, and that's why their healthcare system is overwhelmed, and our spike in cases is mirroring their early spike and it's got us very alarmed.

One thing I think that is much different for us and should help is Italy started shutting down things AFTER they were already overwhelmed. We began when we didn't even have 1000 total cases for 330 million people.

On a side note when it comes to the shutdowns and cancellations, one thing that brings me great comfort is they cancellations and shutdowns are being done, mostly, by the local communities, private/public corporations, and by the organizers. They are NOT being done, again for the most part, by the federal government. It really demonstrates that we are a government by the people. The federal government has its role in this crisis, which I was happy how they stepped up Friday, but I am glad it is not controlling us as citizens.

 

[sheepdogs1]

I would like to challenge people on this board to see who could watch the most episodes of Sportscenter. Talk about being bored. I have a slew of woodpeckers who at this time of year attack the metal hat on top of the fireplace and they commence in the wee hours of the morning. I now almost look forward to them rattling away so I can keep my right arm limber as I try to peg them with a small rock. It's the little things.

 

[MJSooner]

I would like to challenge people on this board to see who could watch the most episodes of Sportscenter. Talk about being bored. I have a slew of woodpeckers who at this time of year attack the metal hat on top of the fireplace and they commence in the wee hours of the morning. I now almost look forward to them rattling away so I can keep my right arm limber as I try to peg them with a small rock. It's the little things.

Lol, you are right. Never thought I would "miss" Sportscenter. And it's only been three days. I will probably end up watching old games on YouTube

 

[sheepdogs1]

Lol, you are right. Never thought I would "miss" Sportscenter. And it's only been three days. I will probably end up watching old games on YouTube

You could also head out to South Lakes and play some golf or use the driving range. Seems like a safe way to enjoy things as we feel encumbered by the times we live in.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Haha, the skunk was really funny.

I might have ruffled a few feathers in that thread,but it comes at the cost of having feathers in the first place.

 

[MJSooner]

You could also head out to South Lakes and play some golf or use the driving range. Seems like a safe way to enjoy things as we feel encumbered by the times we live in.

True. But why did the weather have to turn to s*#t the first weekend we have no sports? Lol.

 

[sheepdogs1]

True. But why did the weather have to turn to s*#t the first weekend we have no sports? Lol.

Yeah. As I stated in the weather thread on the other board I mentioned we have a few inches of rain forecast. Sounds like relief from traps to me!

 

[steverocks35]

Terrific, informative read about Novel Coronavirus:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[BoulderSooner]

The part that has caused health officials and government officials to take such extreme measures as shutdowns and cancellations, and a little state of panic, is the almost identical tracking we have shown compared to Italy, on number of cases.

If you overlay the number of cases in the US beginning on 3/4 to Italy on 2/22 and it is almost identical. This is despite the fact we have a less dense population, less smoking, lower average age, private health insurance, and a better healthcare system.

I get the fact our population is 5.5 times larger skews the weight of the numbers, but the similarty is crazy.

Why are you picking those days to overlay ??

First case in the USA was mid Jan. First in Italy was late Jan early February

 

[steverocks35]

Why are you picking those days to overlay ??

First case in the USA was mid Jan. First in Italy was late Jan early February

Because when a fire starts it doesn’t matter how long it took to get going, what matters is what happens once it gets out of control

 

[MJSooner]

Why are you picking those days to overlay ??

First case in the USA was mid Jan. First in Italy was late Jan early February

I didn't pick the days; two news sources I looked at picked them.

I believe they were the day COVID-19 went over 100 cases in each country.

 

[sheepdogs1]

To this point 54% of the deaths center around King County (Seattle) in Washington (2.23 million population and 37 deceased). Hopefully the rest of the country's population can do better. 99.32% of the nation's citizens live outside of King County. 327.22 million has 31 deceased. Some good news would be much appreciated in unsettled times. Much appreciated.

Current numbers show there are 3541 new cases yet to be resolved and of these cases 10 are listed as serious/critical. Not sure how accurate these numbers really are, but if they are indeed accurate then they are quite astonishing. Sure those depicted as moderate cases could be reevaluated to serious/critical but until that time comes, if it occurs at all, they are optimistic in scope.

 

[steverocks35]

Breaking from CDC: They are recommending no gatherings in the United States of more than 50 people for the next 8 weeks.

Wow, two months!

 

[MJSooner]

Breaking from CDC: They are recommending no gatherings in the United States of more than 50 people for the next 8 weeks.

Wow, two months!

Yep, with exemptions for schools and businesses.

This is what governors have mayors have been doing already, so they are late to the game a bit, and probably won't change anything that hasn't already been done.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Yep, with exemptions for schools and businesses.

This is what governors have mayors have been doing already, so they are late to the game a bit, and probably won't change anything that hasn't already been done.

There goes my ESPN Sportscenter watch party!

 

[sheepdogs1]

One thing I think that is much different for us and should help is Italy started shutting down things AFTER they were already overwhelmed. We began when we didn't even have 1000 total cases for 330 million people.

On a side note when it comes to the shutdowns and cancellations, one thing that brings me great comfort is they cancellations and shutdowns are being done, mostly, by the local communities, private/public corporations, and by the organizers. They are NOT being done, again for the most part, by the federal government. It really demonstrates that we are a government by the people. The federal government has its role in this crisis, which I was happy how they stepped up Friday, but I am glad it is not controlling us as citizens.

Bypassing bureaucracy is at times a good thing. Both the CDC and FDA have fumbled the ball along the way to a certain extent.

 

[coolm]

the overlay and all that other crap isn't the meter that the immunologists use for these instances. they work on determining the R0 ("R naught") value. This number projects how many people will be contaminated by the virus by any single person before they are either not contagious or cured or die.

In this awful case that number is 3 ...and that is a terrifying number to consider. That means every person who gets it will xmit it to 3 others and so on and so on. The organic growth numbers look like this:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

15 steps to 14.4 million people. unprecedented numbers. this is why they say flatten the curve. this is a novel virus so no one has a cure for it and no one is immune. we cannot accommodate that many people as a result of a 14 day incubation. We only have 950k beds and far fewer respirators. Sure, many of the victims will be young and fit, but many will be older and may suffer up to 20% losses by group. Plus, of those who survive many will be left with permanently debilitating respiratory problems from the pneumonia it causes.

this is a very serious problem and delaying its' testing so that Oscar Health could get their foot in the door for govt contracts will end up killing many people.

 

[steverocks35]

the overlay and all that other crap isn't the meter that the immunologists use for these instances. they work on determining the R0 ("R naught") value. This number projects how many people will be contaminated by the virus by any single person before they are either not contagious or cured or die.

In this awful case that number is 3 ...and that is a terrifying number to consider. That means every person who gets it will xmit it to 3 others and so on and so on. The organic growth numbers look like this:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

15 steps to 14.4 million people. unprecedented numbers. this is why they say flatten the curve. this is a novel virus so no one has a cure for it and no one is immune. Sure, many of them will be young and fit, but many will be older and may suffer up to 20% losses by group. Plus, of those who survive many will be left with permanently debilitating respiratory problems from the pneumonia it causes.

this is a very serious problem and delaying its' testing so that Oscar Health could get their foot in the door for govt contracts will end up killing many people.

All I can say is... yep.

 

[Max Power]

the overlay and all that other crap isn't the meter that the immunologists use for these instances. they work on determining the R0 ("R naught") value. This number projects how many people will be contaminated by the virus by any single person before they are either not contagious or cured or die.

In this awful case that number is 3 ...and that is a terrifying number to consider. That means every person who gets it will xmit it to 3 others and so on and so on. The organic growth numbers look like this:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

15 steps to 14.4 million people. unprecedented numbers. this is why they say flatten the curve. this is a novel virus so no one has a cure for it and no one is immune. Sure, many of them will be young and fit, but many will be older and may suffer up to 20% losses by group. Plus, of those who survive many will be left with permanently debilitating respiratory problems from the pneumonia it causes.

this is a very serious problem and delaying its' testing so that Oscar Health could get their foot in the door for govt contracts will end up killing many people.

43,046,721
129,140,163
387,420,489

That's how much longer it takes to get to the entire population of the US.

just 3 more steps

 

[steverocks35]

43,046,721
129,140,163
387,420,489

That's how much longer it takes to get to the entire population of the US.

just 3 more steps

And we’ve already reached the logarithmic phase...