sheepdogs1
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the overlay and all that other crap isn't the meter that the immunologists use for these instances. they work on determining the R0 ("R naught") value. This number projects how many people will be contaminated by the virus by any single person before they are either not contagious or cured or die.
In this awful case that number is 3 ...and that is a terrifying number to consider. That means every person who gets it will xmit it to 3 others and so on and so on. The organic growth numbers look like this:
1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907
15 steps to 14.4 million people. unprecedented numbers. this is why they say flatten the curve. this is a novel virus so no one has a cure for it and no one is immune. we cannot accommodate that many people as a result of a 14 day incubation. We only have 950k beds and far fewer respirators. Sure, many of the victims will be young and fit, but many will be older and may suffer up to 20% losses by group. Plus, of those who survive many will be left with permanently debilitating respiratory problems from the pneumonia it causes.
this is a very serious problem and delaying its' testing so that Oscar Health could get their foot in the door for govt contracts will end up killing many people.
The FDA relaxed the testing procedures at the very end of February. Do you think they were late to the ball game?
To reduce the potential suffering it is going to take a united effort. There will be no single source which has all the answers.
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