Most of the "Experts" Picking Michigan St.

[DenverSooner]

For what it's worth..... In Vegas the public money is going on Sparty, which is predictable. The sharps are apparently on the Sooners. Again, take it for what it's worth.

How do you know this?

 

[WTSooner]

KU wasn't expected by me.

Than you were a fool. No offense intended, but this KU team was RIPE for an upset. If WSU didn't do it, ND certainly would have.

Look back at all the better KU teams that lost 1st or 2nd round games in recent years. This KU teams wasn't as good as any of those teams. They don't have the guard play they normally do. They are playing without Alexander. The writing was on the wall. I picked them to lose to WSU or ND in every single bracket I filled out.

That KU team simply wasn't that great. And the fact that neither OU nor ISU could even tie them in the conference standings speaks to the strength of those teams, IMO.

 

[usedtobe1]

For what it's worth..... In Vegas the public money is going on Sparty, which is predictable. The sharps are apparently on the Sooners. Again, take it for what it's worth.

How do you know this?

It started out with MSU a 2 point favorite and went as high as 2.5. Its dropped now to 1.5 most places. In spite of all the analysts touting the Spartans, it looks like the "smart money" might be going on the Sooners to bring the spread down.

Vegas Point Spreads

 

[Zimwillett]

Than you were a fool. No offense intended, but this KU team was RIPE for an upset. If WSU didn't do it, ND certainly would have.

Look back at all the better KU teams that lost 1st or 2nd round games in recent years. This KU teams wasn't as good as any of those teams. They don't have the guard play they normally do. They are playing without Alexander. The writing was on the wall. I picked them to lose to WSU or ND in every single bracket I filled out.

That KU team simply wasn't that great. And the fact that neither OU nor ISU could even tie them in the conference standings speaks to the strength of those teams, IMO.

I think it also speaks to some of the "extremes" of play in Allen Fieldhouse. They are 186-9 at Allen under Self, and even this "average" KU team has extended the home streak to 24 games. If you win all 9 of your home games in the Big 12, the chances of your winning the conference increase dramatically.

I think this is a big reason why KU ultimately gets over seeded and exposed in the tournament year after year. They build their reputation on a gaudy home record, but those "advantages" are no longer available when they're forced to fight it out with good teams on neutral courts.

 

[coolm]

Vegas lines are set to even the bets. The whole "smart money" thing is a ruse. Vegas ideally wants even money bet on both sides so they make a killing on the juice.

 

[usedtobe1]

Of course. That's why they lowered the spread to 1.5 to get more bets on the MSU side.

 

[JBaker]

Than you were a fool. No offense intended, but this KU team was RIPE for an upset. If WSU didn't do it, ND certainly would have.

Look back at all the better KU teams that lost 1st or 2nd round games in recent years. This KU teams wasn't as good as any of those teams. They don't have the guard play they normally do. They are playing without Alexander. The writing was on the wall. I picked them to lose to WSU or ND in every single bracket I filled out.

That KU team simply wasn't that great. And the fact that neither OU nor ISU could even tie them in the conference standings speaks to the strength of those teams, IMO.

Wichita State was actually favored in the game against KU.

 

[slappy in OP]

I consider myself an expert and I am picking OU. :OU-logo:

 

[Kswhitetail]

We r in trouble. Charles Barkley picked us to win

 

[OUSKINS]

How do you know this?

A little bit of educated guessing mixed in with a good friend who is VERY tuned-in to this stuff. It certainly doesn't guarantee jack squat, but over the years his info has been more accurate than not. And the info here isn't on who is going to cover-- simply info on who the professional gamblers are betting tonight.

 

[OUSKINS]

Vegas lines are set to even the bets. The whole "smart money" thing is a ruse. Vegas ideally wants even money bet on both sides so they make a killing on the juice.

The "smart money" is a real thing. The "smart guys" aren't always right, but there has always been a trend of professional gamblers going opposite of teams where the public is in heavy agreement. MSU/Izzo are very recognizable and trusted by fans this time of year (for good reason). The casual gambler sees that MSU spread at only 2 points and it makes sense that Joe Casino is going to favor Sparty. I have a feeling some of the bigger money went on OU and kept the spread pretty steady.

 

[bocabull]

The "smart money" is a real thing. The "smart guys" aren't always right, but there has always been a trend of professional gamblers going opposite of teams where the public is in heavy agreement. MSU/Izzo are very recognizable and trusted by fans this time of year (for good reason). The casual gambler sees that MSU spread at only 2 points and it makes sense that Joe Casino is going to favor Sparty. I have a feeling some of the bigger money went on OU and kept the spread pretty steady.

There is no such thing as "smart" money. Sports or casino gambling is not done by smart people for profit. It's a suckers game. They all lose in the end, every single one of them. It's a mathematical certainty unless you are taking the bets with the odds stacked in your favor.

 

[garyeb2]

There is no such thing as "smart" money. Sports or casino gambling is not done by smart people for profit. It's a suckers game. They all lose in the end, every single one of them. It's a mathematical certainty unless you are taking the bets with the odds stacked in your favor.

Sports betting and betting on casino games are not the same. There is small percentage of sports bettors than can and do turn long term profits. I'm not one of them and neither are the guys on TV that are trying to sell their picks. But, they exist.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

The bookies and those setting the spreads are NOT indicating who they think will win - or even who they think will win. They are working the spread to get about equal numbers of bets on each side. That guarantees they make a nice profit by taking the difference between what the losers pay and what the winners collect.

Don't ever get fooled into thinking they are "predicting" the outcome. The only outcome they are predicting is that they will make money no matter the outcome of the actual game.

The actual betters are almost guaranteed to lose in the long run since they cannot collect enough from their wins to cover their losses.

 

[bocabull]

Sports betting and betting on casino games are not the same. There is small percentage of sports bettors than can and do turn long term profits. I'm not one of them and neither are the guys on TV that are trying to sell their picks. But, they exist.

I don't think they exist Gary. I've certainly never come across one. Have never read an article about one or seen a documentary about one with evidence of their success. What I have come across is every single person who thought they could make money wagering on sports, including myself, losing more than they won and quitting.

 

[garyeb2]

The bookies and those setting the spreads are NOT indicating who they think will win - or even who they think will win. They are working the spread to get about equal numbers of bets on each side. That guarantees they make a nice profit by taking the difference between what the losers pay and what the winners collect.

Don't ever get fooled into thinking they are "predicting" the outcome. The only outcome they are predicting is that they will make money no matter the outcome of the actual game.

The actual betters are almost guaranteed to lose in the long run since they cannot collect enough from their wins to cover their losses.

Wrong. There is no better predictor of outcomes than the closing line. Year after year. Decade after decade. No ranking or rating by anyone or anything can outrun the long term predictive value of the betting line.

 

[Max Power]

There is no such thing as "smart" money. Sports or casino gambling is not done by smart people for profit. It's a suckers game. They all lose in the end, every single one of them. It's a mathematical certainty unless you are taking the bets with the odds stacked in your favor.

So the smart money theory is like the smart aggie theory just a myth

 

[SoonerTraveler]

Here's a related story ...

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...throw-causes-millions-dollars-swing-las-vegas

 

[WTSooner]

Does the Big 10 getting two teams into the FF change this argument at all?

I'm sorry, but when you are rating a conference, you rate them based on the top of the league, not whether the teams at the bottom are really sucky, or just kind of sucky.

 

[coolm]

There is no such thing as "smart" money. Sports or casino gambling is not done by smart people for profit. It's a suckers game. They all lose in the end, every single one of them. It's a mathematical certainty unless you are taking the bets with the odds stacked in your favor.

I don't think they exist Gary. I've certainly never come across one. Have never read an article about one or seen a documentary about one with evidence of their success. What I have come across is every single person who thought they could make money wagering on sports, including myself, losing more than they won and quitting.

agreed 1000%. Betting is so outrageously stupid. You may as well just give me or someone else the money outright. That's what will happen sooner or later.