Most of the "Experts" Picking Michigan St.

[Sweetest OU Girl]

Wrong. There is no better predictor of outcomes than the closing line. Year after year. Decade after decade. No ranking or rating by anyone or anything can outrun the long term predictive value of the betting line.

There may be some truth to your conclusion because you are combining the expectations of large numbers of people. However, the goal of the bookie is NOT to predict the winner. It is to balance the bets so there is as little risk to the book as possible. What they try to avoid is a situation where a big majority of the bets are on one side of the line.

On the other hand, individual bettors are always working against the odds since they must pay more when they lose than they collect for a win. Thus they must win substantially more than they lose just to break even - in the long run.

 

[WTSooner]

agreed 1000%. Betting is so outrageously stupid. You may as well just give me or someone else the money outright. That's what will happen sooner or later.

Couldn't disagree more.

Not saying it's easy, but with sports betting, you can make money consistently if you have time to do your homework, and maybe more importantly, you can stick to your system. For example, on any given Saturday during college football, a good gambler is only putting money down on 1-3 games the entire day. Period. But 99% of people can't do that. They want to bet more games. They want to increase their bets. They chase.

I still gamble on occasion, but WAY less than I did back in the early 2000's. Mostly b/c I simply don't have the time to put in the work I did back then. But I made money each year for about 4-5 years betting mostly on college football. I pretty much break even anymore, though like I said, I do it for fun now, don't bet much, and don't follow the rule I laid out above.

 

[coolm]

Wrong. There is no better predictor of outcomes than the closing line. Year after year. Decade after decade. No ranking or rating by anyone or anything can outrun the long term predictive value of the betting line.

sorry but thats a load of crap.

the win/loss of it is skewed by games anyone could predict. The "line" is only predictive after the fact when statistical numbers are run that basically justify themselves when you compare them against other formulas.

 

[garyeb2]

sorry but thats a load of crap.

the win/loss of it is skewed by games anyone could predict. The "line" is only predictive after the fact when statistical numbers are run that basically justify themselves when you compare them against other formulas.

You are making authoritative statements outside you field of expertise, again.