Thursday was a bad day for us. I absolutely believe we are right on the play-in cut line now and if the various Bracket “experts” are just a tad off, we could be in peril of making it altogether. There are about 5 teams today in our general vicinity that could all pick up really good wins today. Some of the teams that were farther back from us had their bubble burst, but UVA, Colorado, Colorado St, Pitt, NM, TAMU, Miss St, ALL advanced… not ideal.
What Is Your NCAA Tourney Seed Prediction?
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StoopsBros
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45 NET
Dropped one spot
Dropped one spot
I absolutely agree. And I can’t be that mad about it. Those teams took care of business when they had to. OU has gone 2-8 the last month of the season. Nuff said I guess.
Isn’t that like nine spots worse than OU’s net in 22 when they missed the tournament? Doesn’t make me feel good.
I don’t think the field/bubble is a strong this year as it was two years ago. There were also a few last minute bid thieves.
That said, anyone who thinks OU is still “solidly in” just isn’t looking at things correctly. There is an opportunity today for LOTS of teams to pick up massive wins and jump OU. For example, OU may or may not be ahead of St John’s currently. Well, if they beat UCONN, then they are definitely getting jumped. Same with several others.
UVA would be one to watch for sure as losing to NC St would hurt them. It would also put NC St one win from stealing a bid though.
I legit think there are 4-5 teams that can 100% jump OU today… if all those go against us I think we become play-in at best and could be bounced entirely if bid thieves step in.
Great post. Reasonable take. Can’t wear crimson glasses this time of year or one can be severely disappointed.
WichitaSooner
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This. Plus, there is always at least a surprise or two from the committee, like Rutgers in 2022. That would take another bid or two away from teams that people are assuming are safe. Yesterday was a bad day. As someone posted earlier, other teams are taking care of their business while we hope the prayer in Stillwater is enough.
StoopsBros
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SoonerBounce13
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Guys...you are driving yourself mad over nothing. Stop worrying
StoopsBros
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Good question, I don't remember.
The final NET had OU at 39.
@TEvans4Three or @BoulderSooner or whoever else may remember
stormspencer
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I understand the concern, but going off of what bracketologists are currently projecting, I am not in worry mode......yet. Of the teams that you listed above, only Colorado State and NM had notable wins last night that really move the needle.....and CSU was already ahead of us. I guess you could lump Pitt in that group as well as they beat another fellow bubble team (Wake), but Pitt is still last four out I believe on most brackets. From where we are seeded, none of the teams behind us have jumped us at this point. And outside of UVA, I believe every one of those teams will be an underdog. You may have a few of those that advance with wins today, but you will also have some that are eliminated with losses.
Sorry, you can’t tell me if Pitt beats UNC, Johnnie’s beat UCONN, Sparty beats Purdue, MSU beats Tenn, TAMU beats UK, NM wins, UVA wins…. That ALL of those teams won’t jump
us or at worst be level with us with another chance to win tomorrow.
Now, literally all of those teams listed above are pretty hefty underdogs so I would certainly hope they won’t all win. But in a worst case scenario, we can absolutely be put in peril. If ALL of those go our way today? Then we can probably relax.
WichitaSooner
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I’d say the games yesterday that worry me as far as teams potentially shoving us down to the play-in or worse would be Mich State, Miss State, St. John’s, A&M, Colorado, and New Mexico. All those teams were very close to us in most brackets. Even if there wins weren’t over great teams, they at least help them a little, and obviously give them all opportunities to pick up huge wins today. I will be very surprised if at least some of them don’t end up pulling off upsets today. It always happens in conference tournaments. Even Ohio State is making a huge push and could get there if they keep winning.
Update: The Athletic just updated and moved us down to last four byes. All the teams I just named, plus Virginia, are right on our heels.
IndySooner
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I think there is a chance we play Tues/Wed after yesterday, but I don’t think there’s a chance we aren’t in. Almost every team listed above was already in most brackets. The A10 screwed it up for someone, but that’s likely Indiana State right now.
TEvans4Three
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Correct, OU finished 39th in the NET in 2022 prior to Selection Sunday.
| Year | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 |
| Coach | Kruger | Kruger | Moser | Moser |
| KP | 32 | 39 | 30 | 45 |
| NET | 37 | 36 | 39 | 45 |
| Hi NET | 16 | 16 | 31 | 7 |
| Low NET | 40 | 50 | 58 | 45 |
| Opp Avg NET | 61 | 97 | 89 | 107 |
| Avg NET Win | 81 | 140 | 136 | 157 |
| Avg NET Loss | 34 | 34 | 33 | 25 |
| Record | 20-14 | 16-11 | 19-16 | 20-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 | 3-8 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Q1 | 4-10 | 5-9 | 4-12 | 4-12 |
| Q2 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 5-0 |
| Q3 | 9-1 | 4-1 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Q4 | 0-0 | 6-0 | 6-0 | 8-0 |
| Seed | 9 seed | 8 seed | None | ? |
I took out the COVID year and last year, bc no one wants to see last year...
With color
TEvans4Three
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From updated top bracketologists from yesterday/today:
DRatings has us as the 2nd 10-seed (not bubble)
1-3-1 Sports has us as the 1st 10-seed (not bubble)
Bracketmatrix has us as the consensus 1st 10-seed (not bubble)
The consesus 7-seeds are St. Mary's, Dayton, Washington State, Gonzaga. Slating us against Gonzaga. oof
We are listed in every bracket btw...all 105
DRatings has us as the 2nd 10-seed (not bubble)
1-3-1 Sports has us as the 1st 10-seed (not bubble)
Bracketmatrix has us as the consensus 1st 10-seed (not bubble)
The consesus 7-seeds are St. Mary's, Dayton, Washington State, Gonzaga. Slating us against Gonzaga. oof
We are listed in every bracket btw...all 105
Big difference is ALL losses are Q1 this year. No bad losses is something the committee values "gulp" hopefully.
WichitaSooner
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That chart confirms what I already knew, which is that we never truly in danger of even sliding to a play-in under Lon. And it also shows how important scheduling is. No Q4 games in 19!
WichitaSooner
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That was yesterday. I’ll be curious where we slot in on the Matrix today.
StoopsBros
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Whoever this guy is (haven't really looked yet), he doesn't list OU
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