March Madness and Covid-19

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Stikboy said:
We are extremely lucky to have experts on this board. When I sometimes drop in, I am relieved to see some of the data given, because i'm trying to get informed. So, being mostly in the dark about all this, maybe some of the experts can answer some questions for me.

1. How many more Coronavirus deaths will it take to catch the yearly average for flu deaths?
2. Are all deaths being coded as Coronavirus deaths for those that have tested positive, even if the cause of death might be something else?
3. Yearly, how effective is the flu vaccine in corralling every strain of the flu? And if not completely effective, and people have died, why wasn't anything closed down... Nothing? Did our leaders not value human life in the past?
4. With the supposed bungled nature of testing here in the US, how can we be sure that the first case in the US was in January?

Lots of places I could have asked these questions, but accurate info about this virus seems to come at a rocket pace on this board. Thank you very much in advance for any answers!
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I doubt there are any experts on this basketball message board lol. I don’t even claim to be an expert even though I have a post-graduate education in the field and have been actively working on the Covid-19 workgroup for the VA, but I will answer a couple of your loaded questions. First of all, you should stop trying to compare seasonal flu with this novel coronavirus. About the only things they have in common are that they are caused by a virus. This is so much different.

1. These numbers are easily googlable, so I will let you do that. But I will tell you that we have reached the phase of this pandemic in America where about 2,000 people every day are dying. And worldwide, many thousands per day.
2. No
3. That’s not how the flu vaccine works. Scientists make an educated guess every year about which strain of flu will be prevalent and plan accordingly. There are multiple reasons we don’t close down for the seasonal flu. a. The flu has an R0 (R naught) of about 1, that means if you have the flu, on average you will infect 1 person, that number for Covid-19 is 3 and might be higher if there is airborne transmission. b. The mortality rate for flu is about 0.1-0.2%, for Covid-19 it’s at least 1.5% and in some places like Italy it’s upwards of 5%. Numbers out of Great Britain have been very discouraging in that regard. c. The morbidity of Covid-19 seems to be bad in severe cases, resulting in long hospital stays and possible permanent lung damage. d. This coronavirus is NOVEL which means no humans had antibodies to it before it was introduced into the population from a bat to an intermediate host (maybe a civet cat or some other mammal) to humans. You can see why extreme measures needed to be taken.
4. The testing regimen was bungled, but the reason we know that the virus wasn’t here earlier is simple: If it had been here sooner all the things that are happening now would have happened sooner.

Hope this helps
 
stormspencer said:
Keep hoping for the worst.....and maybe you'll win in November.
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no politics

How many test kits have been delivered???

There's already hospitals laying off staff because they're running out of money because no one is paying for the covid patients.

Look the other way if you want.....follow the crowd.
 
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tooney said:
Not hoping for the worst......just that this administration has a track record.

How many test kits have been delivered???

There's already hospitals laying off staff because they're running out of money because no one is paying for the covid patients.

Look the other way if you want.....follow the crowd.
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I'm not sure you have any concept of how hospitals are paid in reference to diagnosis related groups (DRGs). The payment process can take months based upon how quickly billing and receivables are turned over to the payor (insurance provider, CMS, etc.). I'm sure you can find an article or two concerning layoffs, but your reasoning is off. Some hospitals that are temporarily losing money right now is likely due to postponement of elective surgeries.....not because "no one is paying for COVID patients". And with further government dictation of COVID prioritization, this will likely continue for the next month or so.

As far as layoffs, it wouldn't surprise me that some hospitals are cutting back on staff....but layoffs are more likely within private physician practices, MOBs, non-medical staff, and support services. And it certainly isn't because hospitals "aren't getting paid", but rather that they have had to narrow their focus and reallocate specific resources to deal with the virus.....along with many doctors offices cutting back on hours or even being closed.

Stop getting your agenda-driven information from the NYT, Washington Post, and Vox.....the media doesn't have a clue regarding the dynamics of healthcare administration. It has nothing to do with the Administration.... but keep trying.
 
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stormspencer said:
I'm not sure you have any concept of how hospitals are paid in reference to diagnosis related groups (DRGs). The payment process can take months based upon how quickly billing and receivables are turned over to the payor (insurance provider, CMS, etc.). I'm sure you can find an article or two concerning layoffs, but your reasoning is off. Some hospitals that are temporarily losing money right now is likely due to postponement of elective surgeries.....not because "no one is paying for COVID patients". And with further government dictation of COVID prioritization, this will likely continue for the next month or so.

As far as layoffs, it wouldn't surprise me that some hospitals are cutting back on staff....but layoffs are more likely within private physician practices, MOBs, non-medical staff, and support services. And it certainly isn't because hospitals "aren't getting paid", but rather that they have had to narrow their focus and reallocate specific resources to deal with the virus.....along with many doctors offices cutting back on hours or even being closed.

Stop getting your agenda-driven information from the NYT, Washington Post, and Vox.....the media doesn't have a clue regarding the dynamics of healthcare administration. It has nothing to do with the Administration.... but keep trying.
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very much this
 
BoulderSooner said:
this is not based in fact this is a guess ..

there is a very reasonable chance that the mortality rate is much much lower than 1.5%
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You keep saying "very reasonable chance," based on nothing. I keep giving numbers based on data. Like I've said before, you can't definitively give a death rate until it's all over, but we can deduce some things based on the data that is already piling up. And if you don't want to believe the numbers just go check some of the refrigerated trucks in front of many hospitals in hotspots.
 
BoulderSooner said:
this is not based in fact this is a guess ..

there is a very reasonable chance that the mortality rate is much much lower than 1.5%
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Agreed. The denominator in this equation is likely much higher than we're estimating currently.
 
Sheesh, you guys don't know what you're talking about.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The WHO estimate is 3.4%, if you say that number is wildly inaccurate by a factor of 2, then the death rate is 1.7%. I was erring very much on the low side when I said 1.5%.

Also if you scroll down you will see the swine flu mortality rate is 0.02%. Drastically lower.
 
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steverocks35 said:
Sheesh, you guys don't know what you're talking about.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The WHO estimate is 3.4%, if you say that number is wildly inaccurate by a factor of 2, then the death rate is 1.7%. I was erring very much on the low side when I said 1.5%.

Also if you scroll down you will see the swine flu mortality rate is 0.02%. Drastically lower.
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Still believing the WHO numbers? Someone once said, "Google is your friend."

There's alot of money in that 3.4%.
 
steverocks35 said:
You keep saying "very reasonable chance," based on nothing. I keep giving numbers based on data. Like I've said before, you can't definitively give a death rate until it's all over, but we can deduce some things based on the data that is already piling up. And if you don't want to believe the numbers just go check some of the refrigerated trucks in front of many hospitals in hotspots.
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not based on nothing ..

most of the links are in this thread ...
 
WTSooner said:
Agreed. The denominator in this equation is likely much higher than we're estimating currently.
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The only manner in which the denominator could be known is for all people to be tested for antibodies as this would give an indication for those who were and currently are carrying the virus. Problem is it's not going to happen.
 
sheepdogs1 said:
The only manner in which the denominator could be known is for all people to be tested for antibodies as this would give an indication for those who were and currently are carrying the virus. Problem is it's not going to happen.
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All schools of epidemiology and public health should just shut their doors then, because literally zero diseases have this level of testing.
 
Hospitals are struggling because they have quit all elective surgeries and procedures which is where they make money. They aren't making money on people being sick in the hospital now or in last few decades. The majority of the big hospitals here in OKC have a margin of 1-2%.
They are also having to buy more supplies for all the extra things being required to fight the spread of Covid. They actually usually make money on their food services to which have been shut down to everyone except patients and employees.
The rural hospitals have been in financial ruin for years.
 
It's becoming more clear the models are so bad because this virus was with us last fall and it was a huge mistake to listen to the advice of the so called experts by shutting down the country. I'm ready for the country to function again and now let us learn a lesson on how to handle similar situations in the future. Living in fear is not living.
 
vbdad said:
Hospitals are struggling because they have quit all elective surgeries and procedures which is where they make money. They aren't making money on people being sick in the hospital now or in last few decades. The majority of the big hospitals here in OKC have a margin of 1-2%.
They are also having to buy more supplies for all the extra things being required to fight the spread of Covid. They actually usually make money on their food services to which have been shut down to everyone except patients and employees.
The rural hospitals have been in financial ruin for years.
Click to expand...

Everything above.....100% fact. Good post.
 
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