March Madness and Covid-19

[dksooner]

I do not know the death rate, I said that in my post. But I do know what the experts are saying about it, and I know how it is calculated, and I know enough to make educated calculations. I also know how epidemiological models work.

I am not upset in the least. I don't know why you would think that I am, I just found it amusing

Okay, I really do have to go now, have a great day!

Experts started at 2.2 million deaths, now it's 50k. Your floor is going to be way off, will you admit this?

 

[coolm]

I dont understand this fascination/predilection with the death rate. The death rate isn't some inherent factor of covid-19. It's a combination of factors both biological and social. You can't compare it city to city reliably much less country to country or state to state. population density, medical care availability, and general public health are all factors - but certainly not the only ones.

 

[WTSooner]

so 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 7 1 1 6 7 4 4 4 4 5 16 12 1 8

what is the pattern??

I don't really see a pattern, but I can tell you what it isn't. It's certainly not exponential growth.

 

[BoulderSooner]

I dont understand this fascination/predilection with the death rate. The death rate isn't some inherent factor of covid-19. It's a combination of factors both biological and social. You can't compare it city to city reliably much less country to country or state to state. population density, medical care availability, and general public health are all factors - but certainly not the only ones.

if the stanford guys are correct and 10 of millions are already infected and the real death rate is around the seasonal flu

that would mean that if this comes back in the fall we don't need to shut down the economy and cost 20mil + poeple their jobs ..

 

[BCSooners]

if the stanford guys are correct and 10 of millions are already infected and the real death rate is around the seasonal flu

that would mean that if this comes back in the fall we don't need to shut down the economy and cost 20mil + poeple their jobs ..

The death rate isn’t the main reason the country is shut down. It’s the infection rate & no vaccine.

 

[thebigabd]

The death rate isn’t the main reason the country is shut down. It’s the infection rate & no vaccine.

This.

 

[hoopsaustin]

You keep saying "very reasonable chance," based on nothing. I keep giving numbers based on data. Like I've said before, you can't definitively give a death rate until it's all over, but we can deduce some things based on the data that is already piling up. And if you don't want to believe the numbers just go check some of the refrigerated trucks in front of many hospitals in hotspots.

"Based on data" so you win.... but we have barely tested anyone (which you'll agree with) so we have terrible data... but yet it's enough for you to scientifically calculate your death rate as reliable bc "based on [terrible] data"

 

[hoopsaustin]

I get a kick out of people lecturing me on this stuff, and displaying that they don't know how models work. I never knew we had so many infectious disease experts on this basketball message board, it's awesome!

I hope i achieve this level of expertise in any subject matter someday so that people trying to even communicate with me on said subject matter are beneath me

 

[steverocks35]

I hope i achieve this level of expertise in any subject matter someday so that people trying to even communicate with me on said subject matter is beneath me

Meh you’re right, I could have been a lot nicer. It just struck me as funny since I literally just explained that 2 posts above. I did come across arrogantly.

By the way, what is your area of expertise HoopsAustin?

 

[mict085]

I just read they’ve started finger stick antibody testing in parts of California and Texas. The test results take 10-15 minutes. We need this in every state ASAP.

 

[coolm]

I just read they’ve started finger stick antibody testing in parts of California and Texas. The test results take 10-15 minutes. We need this in every state ASAP.

why?

 

[BoulderSooner]

why?

It will let you know if you have already have it

 

[BoulderSooner]

Meh you’re right, I could have been a lot nicer. It just struck me as funny since I literally just explained that 2 posts above. I did come across arrogantly.

By the way, what is your area of expertise HoopsAustin?

There are people on this board from about every industry

 

[steverocks35]

There are people on this board from about every industry

Yep it’s a very diverse group!

 

[coolm]

It will let you know if you have already have it

ok ... and what does that do?

 

[mict085]

ok ... and what does that do?

The antibody testing reveals who’s had the virus and recovered. This means they potentially have immunity. That’s still under investigation. However, if they have immunity, they can go back to work without the threat of spreading the virus. Also, there’s a thought that donated blood from those that have antibodies could be given to COVID patients and hep them fight the virus. That too, is still under investigation.

Increasing antibody testing combined with increased COVID testing could allow us to isoloate those that need to be isolated and return the rest to work. All of this is new but outside of a vaccine, it’s the most promising development yet, along with some emerging evidence in medication treatment.

 

[mict085]

Also, I’d like to say that police officers tackling people and arresting them for running on the beach is freaking ridiculous. I know there’s a shelter in place in some areas, but running alone when nobody is within 100 feet of you is not a public health danger to anyone. Can we please exercise some common sense

 

[SoonerJK12]

The death rate isn’t the main reason the country is shut down. It’s the infection rate & no vaccine.

That's only half of it. One of the biggest reasons we are shut down is because the models predicted hundreds of thousands people needing hospital beds. The lowest model predicted NY needing at least 50,000, maybe even 120,000 -- with social distancing!

It turns out those models were using bad assumptions, such as the IHME model-- that for every death you would have 11 hospitalizations. Turns out we have only had about 7 hospitalizations per death. They also largely got wrong how long a typical non-ICU patient would spend in the hospital.

As Fauci said, a model is only as good as the assumptions you put into it.

 

[BCSooners]

That's only half of it. One of the biggest reasons we are shut down is because the models predicted hundreds of thousands people needing hospital beds. The lowest model predicted NY needing at least 50,000, maybe even 120,000 -- with social distancing!

It turns out those models were using bad assumptions, such as the IHME model-- that for every death you would have 11 hospitalizations. Turns out we have only had about 7 hospitalizations per death. They also largely got wrong how long a typical non-ICU patient would spend in the hospital.

As Fauci said, a model is only as good as the assumptions you put into it.

Hundreds of thousands would’ve needed those beds if we didn’t shut things down.

 

[Stikboy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHM...eelfs745HSa1p5s8F0cHuV-HKLWHkmF3sw46BL5CBnBNA