March Madness and Covid-19

[BoulderSooner]

It's becoming more clear the models are so bad because this virus was with us last fall and it was a huge mistake to listen to the advice of the so called experts by shutting down the country. I'm ready for the country to function again and now let us learn a lesson on how to handle similar situations in the future. Living in fear is not living.

it was not here in the fall ..

maybe in December ..

 

[mict085]

Hospitals are struggling because they have quit all elective surgeries and procedures which is where they make money. They aren't making money on people being sick in the hospital now or in last few decades. The majority of the big hospitals here in OKC have a margin of 1-2%.
They are also having to buy more supplies for all the extra things being required to fight the spread of Covid. They actually usually make money on their food services to which have been shut down to everyone except patients and employees.
The rural hospitals have been in financial ruin for years.

This is exactly correct. It’s not COVID that’s causing layoffs at hospitals. It’s the fact that they can’t schedule any non emergent cases or outpatient surgeries. That’s their bread and butter that anchors the entire hospital budget. ORs are sitting empty and hospitals are trying to find ways to put their OR staff to work in other areas during this shutdown. Some are more successful than others. That is the biggest reason hospitals are having to layoff so many people. This will cause more hospitals to close their doors forever, mostly rural hospitals. Unless the government subsidizes them to bridge the gap, many will close forever.

 

[mict085]

Sheesh, you guys don't know what you're talking about.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The WHO estimate is 3.4%, if you say that number is wildly inaccurate by a factor of 2, then the death rate is 1.7%. I was erring very much on the low side when I said 1.5%.

Also if you scroll down you will see the swine flu mortality rate is 0.02%. Drastically lower.

Even the WHO says it’s difficult to determine death rate when we don’t know how many are infected. Most say we’re way off on knowing how many are infected. So, it’s an educated guess that will be adjusted continuously as we get more info. It will likely be a awhile before we get a better understanding of the death rate. Just like the models saying 200,000 will die and now they project 60,000.

 

[steverocks35]

Even the WHO says it’s difficult to determine death rate when we don’t know how many are infected. Most say we’re way off on knowing how many are infected. So, it’s an educated guess that will be adjusted continuously as we get more info. It will likely be a awhile before we get a better understanding of the death rate. Just like the models saying 200,000 will die and now they project 60,000.

I get a kick out of people lecturing me on this stuff, and displaying that they don't know how models work. I never knew we had so many infectious disease experts on this basketball message board, it's awesome!

 

[AdaSooner]

Hospitals are struggling because they have quit all elective surgeries and procedures which is where they make money. They aren't making money on people being sick in the hospital now or in last few decades. The majority of the big hospitals here in OKC have a margin of 1-2%.
They are also having to buy more supplies for all the extra things being required to fight the spread of Covid. They actually usually make money on their food services to which have been shut down to everyone except patients and employees.
The rural hospitals have been in financial ruin for years.

Exactly! An article I read not long ago said 70 rural hospitals have closed their doors since 2010, and an estimated 1 in 4 others are struggling to stay open. Last year alone 19 rural hospitals were forced to give up their fight to serve their communities. The Covid-19 virus can’t possibly help them stay open.

 

[SoonerJK12]

Sheesh, you guys don't know what you're talking about.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The WHO estimate is 3.4%, if you say that number is wildly inaccurate by a factor of 2, then the death rate is 1.7%. I was erring very much on the low side when I said 1.5%.

Also if you scroll down you will see the swine flu mortality rate is 0.02%. Drastically lower.

It's not crazy to think that the actual death rate is much lower than the current Case-fatality rate. WE AREN'T DOING ENOUGH TESTING!!!! Mild cases aren't getting recorded because they don't seek care.

Look at the countries that are doing the most testing per capita. Iceland is a great example. That have tested 10% of their population! Only 360,000 people but still. Their death rate is under 1%.

UAE has also tested dramatically higher numbers when compared their population. They have tested 7% of their population. Death rate under 1%

United states has tested 0.7% of its population.

 

[steverocks35]

It's not crazy to think that the actual death rate is much lower than the current Case-fatality rate. WE AREN'T DOING ENOUGH TESTING!!!! Mild cases aren't getting recorded because they don't seek care.

Look at the countries that are doing the most testing per capita. Iceland is a great example. That have tested 10% of their population! Only 360,000 people but still. Their death rate is under 1%.

UAE has also tested dramatically higher numbers when compared their population. They have tested 7% of their population. Death rate under 1%

United states has tested 0.7% of its population.

I totally agree that we haven't done enough testing, and that's why the number I'm using is 1.5%. I am aware of the numbers in those countries. But you also must realize those are tiny countries with healthier populations. Some countries are going to have lower mortality rates and some are going to be higher. Now, let's talk about America. We are an obese population that's not particularly healthy, but I'm still pegging the rate much lower than the WHO estimate of 3.4%. We are not Italy and we are not South Korea, we are somewhere in between.

 

[WTSooner]

I get a kick out of people lecturing me on this stuff, and displaying that they don't know how models work. I never knew we had so many infectious disease experts on this basketball message board, it's awesome!

And this is why people have stopped taking you seriously. You've dug yourself into a position of ALWAYS being right, and you never back down or admit to being wrong on anything. You aren't some guru on this disease. And you've been wrong about plenty.

Remember the floor of 15M deaths worldwide? Where do we sit now? 100k or so? How far off on that one were you?

You likely missed on the US floor as well.

And you keep talking about Oklahoma having logarithmic increases in death, but that hasn't happened either. And there are other places it hasn't happened.

If you would just have an actual conversation instead of inserting yourself into any discussion as a know-it-all professional who has all the answers and is never wrong, you'd probably get more people to listen to you.

 

[SoonerJK12]

I totally agree that we haven't done enough testing, and that's why the number I'm using is 1.5%. I am aware of the numbers in those countries. But you also must realize those are tiny countries with healthier populations. Some countries are going to have lower mortality rates and some are going to be higher. Now, let's talk about America. We are an obese population that's not particularly healthy, but I'm still pegging the rate much lower than the WHO estimate of 3.4%. We are not Italy and we are not South Korea, we are somewhere in between.

Both UAE and Iceland have similar or worse death rates from seasonal influenza.

 

[steverocks35]

And this is why people have stopped taking you seriously. You've dug yourself into a position of ALWAYS being right, and you never back down or admit to being wrong on anything. You aren't some guru on this disease. And you've been wrong about plenty.

Remember the floor of 15M deaths worldwide? Where do we sit now? 100k or so? How far off on that one were you?

You likely missed on the US floor as well.

And you keep talking about Oklahoma having logarithmic increases in death, but that hasn't happened either. And there are other places it hasn't happened.

If you would just have an actual conversation instead of inserting yourself into any discussion as a know-it-all professional who has all the answers and is never wrong, you'd probably get more people to listen to you.

I have admitted to being wrong and I never claimed to be an expert, but I DO have an education and a background in this field. You, on the other hand, have made laughable claims you got from ridiculous sources like techstartups.com lol.

I have said that we won't know the exact death rate until this is over but we can make some educated guess based on what we know. I guarantee you I won't be 100% right but I can tell you what the experts are saying and make some educated guesses of my own. If you don't like the information or what I have to say I don't really care.

 

[steverocks35]

Both UAE and Iceland have similar or worse death rates from seasonal influenza.

You can't compare this virus to the seasonal flu for lots of reasons I already outlined, but we will see when this is all over. I am sticking with my ballpark figure of 1.5%. Now it could easily be 1% or 2% or 3%. There are too many factors to be 100% accurate at this point.

 

[steverocks35]

Number of deaths in Oklahoma from 3/21 to the present.

1,2,2,3,5,7,8,15,16,17,23,30,34,38,42,46,51,67,79,80,88

Anyone notice a pattern?

 

[WTSooner]

You, on the other hand, have made laughable claims you got from ridiculous sources like techstartups.com lol.

Laughable claims? I posted the link. Didn't say a single word other than that. Never made a single claim. Another example of you being a know-it-all, putting words in my mouth, and running with it. Funny part is, EVERY day there are articles about that drug being used in treatments. Good chance it's going to end up being a part of treatments going forward, or at least for the time being.

 

[BCSooners]

Both UAE and Iceland have similar or worse death rates from seasonal influenza.

Covid-19 and influenza are not the same thing.

 

[steverocks35]

Laughable claims? I posted the link. Didn't say a single word other than that. Never made a single claim. Another example of you being a know-it-all, putting words in my mouth, and running with it. Funny part is, EVERY day there are articles about that drug being used in treatments. Good chance it's going to end up being a part of treatments going forward, or at least for the time being.

Lol, you said plenty of words about that ridiculous article. :ez-roll:

"Good chance," I keep seeing these words with no data or supporting evidence.

 

[steverocks35]

Again, I've wasted too much time here, I do have a day job and my lunch break is way over haha. You gents have a great day, even you WT, stay safe all.

 

[mict085]

I get a kick out of people lecturing me on this stuff, and displaying that they don't know how models work. I never knew we had so many infectious disease experts on this basketball message board, it's awesome!

I’m not lecturing you, but you don’t know the death rate either. You’re guessing just like everyone else because the total number of infected is unknown. You get your feelings hurt when everyone doesn’t agree with everything you say. Also, you’ve been sounding the alarm of the apocalypse from day 1 and you get upset when some say it’s not as bad as you think. Grow up and act like an adult professional.

 

[steverocks35]

I’m not lecturing you, but you don’t know the death rate either. You’re guessing just like everyone else because the total number of infected is unknown. You get your feelings hurt when everyone doesn’t agree with everything you say. Also, you’ve been sounding the alarm of the apocalypse from day 1 and you get upset when some say it’s not as bad as you think. Grow up and act like an adult professional.

I do not know the death rate, I said that in my post. But I do know what the experts are saying about it, and I know how it is calculated, and I know enough to make educated calculations. I also know how epidemiological models work.

I am not upset in the least. I don't know why you would think that I am, I just found it amusing

Okay, I really do have to go now, have a great day!

 

[paboomersooner]

Speaking of someone not knowing what they are talking about.

I'm just not as naive as some.

I'll quote you again.

"Google is your friend."

Even some of your precious Prog rags are getting on board.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Number of deaths in Oklahoma from 3/21 to the present.

1,2,2,3,5,7,8,15,16,17,23,30,34,38,42,46,51,67,79,80,88

Anyone notice a pattern?

so 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 7 1 1 6 7 4 4 4 4 5 16 12 1 8

what is the pattern??