March Madness and Covid-19

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If you want anyone to take you seriously you will call the disease by the correct name, not some childish racist nonsense you heard on a grifting shock-jock's radio show.

Some of us stopped taking you seriously several weeks ago. It should be obvious to everyone by now you’re an arrogant, egotistical, self-appointed “expert” who craves attention.

Negative news is an attention-getter. That’s why you never show up when there is something positive to report, and you danged sure don’t post it. Case in point: the decline in Covid patients in Oklahoma sheepdogs1 reported earlier this week. If the outlook on this virus improves, it would be a mistake to depend on you to report the news.
 
If you want anyone to take you seriously you will call the disease by the correct name, not some childish racist nonsense you heard on a grifting shock-jock's radio show.

I take you seriously on the subject. Please keep up the info and opinions, much appreciated.
 
Some of us stopped taking you seriously several weeks ago. It should be obvious to everyone by now you’re an arrogant, egotistical, self-appointed “expert” who craves attention.

Negative news is an attention-getter. That’s why you never show up when there is something positive to report, and you danged sure don’t post it. Case in point: the decline in Covid patients in Oklahoma sheepdogs1 reported earlier this week. If the outlook on this virus improves, it would be a mistake to depend on you to report the news.

Lol, sure, I'm just posting for the attention. I show up here almost daily, and I told you I would gladly eat crow if I'm wrong about the study I talked about day before yesterday. I didn't see what Sheepdogs posted earlier this week. But there has not been a decline in Covid-19 cases in Oklahoma, we are up to 3,121 reported cases and 188 deaths. I'm telling you that if we "re-open" now, we are going to hit another big spike.

I post mostly the bad news because I want people to take this seriously! If you have good news to report, great! That's not my focus right now. After all this is over I'll go back to rainbows and butterflies.
 
But there has not been a decline in Covid-19 cases in Oklahoma, we are up to 3,121 reported cases and 188 deaths.

Neither of those numbers is ever going down, so what is the point in mentioning them when talking about whether our cases are on the decline, steady, or whatever?

Still waiting for that exponential growth, especially in deaths.
 
Neither of those numbers is ever going down, so what is the point in mentioning them when talking about whether our cases are on the decline, steady, or whatever?

Still waiting for that exponential growth, especially in deaths.

Well we hit 50,000 deaths in the United States today, 4 days ago it was 40,000, is that exponential enough? Oklahoma hasn't been extremely hard hit yet, that's true, but we are not out of the woods, and that's why I disagree with opening back up. I feel like it's too soon, I hope it is not. I really sincerely hope I'm wrong.
 
By the way, I think I said logarithmic growth, which is different than exponential. If I said exponential then that was a mistake. I don't feel like wading back through 100 pages here to see lol.
 
The deaths will obviously trail the peak case numbers by a couple of weeks.

How many cases has your VA hospital had as inpatients?
 
Well we hit 50,000 deaths in the United States today, 4 days ago it was 40,000, is that exponential enough? Oklahoma hasn't been extremely hard hit yet, that's true, but we are not out of the woods, and that's why I disagree with opening back up. I feel like it's too soon, I hope it is not. I really sincerely hope I'm wrong.

When enacting policy, we can't use NYC as the template. That is simply a scare tactic. In high density urban areas, people are constantly in close contact in cramped quarters (high-rises, subway, elevators,etc.). You are correct that we are not out of the woods, but I would shocked if any further "hot spots" sniff NY, NJ, etc. As far as deaths are concerned, New York and NJ alone account for over 50% of virus deaths in the US. If you want to include the NE corridor (Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Mass.), then almost 2 out of every 3 deaths are in that geographic area.

Louisiana and Florida both have over 1K deaths....but you can at least partially (and logically) attribute those deaths to mass gatherings (Mardi Gras and Spring Break in the recent past). Otherwise, the worst of this is in the colder climates (including Michigan and Illinois). I have absolutely no scientific or empirical evidence other than looking straight at the numbers and drawing a conclusion.

I could be wrong, but I really believe we are significantly past the peak and most of the country should adjust their policy safely, incrementally but also accordingly. Now I have no idea what's going to happen in the fall if we can't find at least some suitable therapy or treatment.....at that point, all bets are off.
 
When enacting policy, we can't use NYC as the template. That is simply a scare tactic. In high density urban areas, people are constantly in close contact in cramped quarters (high-rises, subway, elevators,etc.). You are correct that we are not out of the woods, but I would shocked if any further "hot spots" sniff NY, NJ, etc. As far as deaths are concerned, New York and NJ alone account for over 50% of virus deaths in the US. If you want to include the NE corridor (Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Mass.), then almost 2 out of every 3 deaths are in that geographic area.

Louisiana and Florida both have over 1K deaths....but you can at least partially (and logically) attribute those deaths to mass gatherings (Mardi Gras and Spring Break in the recent past). Otherwise, the worst of this is in the colder climates (including Michigan and Illinois). I have absolutely no scientific or empirical evidence other than looking straight at the numbers and drawing a conclusion.

I could be wrong, but I really believe we are significantly past the peak and most of the country should adjust their policy safely, incrementally but also accordingly. Now I have no idea what's going to happen in the fall if we can't find at least some suitable therapy or treatment.....at that point, all bets are off.

That is basically how I feel. We still need to be smart in this part of the country (Oklahoma), and I'm not necessarily for the opening this week of movie theaters, concert venues, or things on that scale, but there is no reason barber shops, and spas and stuff can't start reopening, if they are follow some protocol.
 
What is the argument for keeping everything shut down while the hospitals are under capacity? I thought the whole idea was that we needed to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed? Flattening the curve was never about reducing total infections; it was about spreading them out. Treatments may improve, but that vaccine isn't coming anytime soon -- my bet is that we won't have an effective, safe vaccine until there isn't a major need.

Business/lives have to resume at some point. As I have stated from the beginning, if the economy crashes, coronavirus will not be the only thing taking lives.
 
What is the argument for keeping everything shut down while the hospitals are under capacity? I thought the whole idea was that we needed to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed? Flattening the curve was never about reducing total infections; it was about spreading them out. Treatments may improve, but that vaccine isn't coming anytime soon -- my bet is that we won't have an effective, safe vaccine until there isn't a major need.

Business/lives have to resume at some point. As I have stated from the beginning, if the economy crashes, coronavirus will not be the only thing taking lives.

agree with all of this
 
What is the argument for keeping everything shut down while the hospitals are under capacity? I thought the whole idea was that we needed to "flatten the curve" so that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed? Flattening the curve was never about reducing total infections; it was about spreading them out. Treatments may improve, but that vaccine isn't coming anytime soon -- my bet is that we won't have an effective, safe vaccine until there isn't a major need.

Business/lives have to resume at some point. As I have stated from the beginning, if the economy crashes, coronavirus will not be the only thing taking lives.

Nailed it.....we have to open up safely to some degree right now....especially for this part of the country. Some small business owners are already ruined economically.
 
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