March Madness and Covid-19

[OUsky]

or if it is rushed

There is no doubt it will be rushed... see hydroxycholoquine.

 

[Sooner04]

I didn't mean to open a can of worms on the vaccine thing. It just blows my mind that people can cast aside the millions of lives saved, not to mention the tens of millions of lives altered, by removing polio, measles and smallpox from the equation just because some celebrity took a stand to blame their child's affliction on booster shot. Madness! The day the polio vaccine was proven sound was very nearly recognized as a national holiday. And now, a generation or two removed, we've got nuts who'll go to the ends of the Earth to spew nonsense about what that shot has done to their child's personality. Blimey!

I don't think we'll ever see a vaccine for Covid-19. I think the herd will be in place long before then. We make strides every day in the treatment of this bastard, and that's going to have to do. Don't ever doubt the ingenuity of doctors.

In other news, I don't take the flu shot. To me, it's a shot in the dark. My wife takes it, as do my children. My eldest daughter has had the flu each of the last two years, as has my wife. I had a touch of it a couple of years ago and made it through this year unscathed. I had my last flu shot in 1998 and had the flu so bad that year that I swore off it forever. Until last year's touch of the scourge, that was my last dance with that junk. I don't want that crap in my body. I'll trust my hand washing, my immune system, and my normal hygiene practices.

But if they DO come up with a vaccine, if the next Jonas Salk is out there right now with this thing in its sights, then I'll be in line to receive the miracle. This virus is awful. It is not flu light. There wouldn't be tens of thousands dead in New York otherwise. That's what scares me at my most anxious moments. Why are there so many dead there? What is THAT strain doing? Where is THAT strain hiding? Where will THAT strain show up next?

Stay safe everyone! Wash your hands. And wear a mask for your friends and family, not for yourself! It doesn't hurt.

 

[soonerchuck]

I didn't mean to open a can of worms on the vaccine thing. It just blows my mind that people can cast aside the millions of lives saved, not to mention the tens of millions of lives altered, by removing polio, measles and smallpox from the equation just because some celebrity took a stand to blame their child's affliction on booster shot. Madness! The day the polio vaccine was proven sound was very nearly recognized as a national holiday. And now, a generation or two removed, we've got nuts who'll go to the ends of the Earth to spew nonsense about what that shot has done to their child's personality. Blimey!

I don't think we'll ever see a vaccine for Covid-19. I think the herd will be in place long before then. We make strides every day in the treatment of this bastard, and that's going to have to do. Don't ever doubt the ingenuity of doctors.

In other news, I don't take the flu shot. To me, it's a shot in the dark. My wife takes it, as do my children. My eldest daughter has had the flu each of the last two years, as has my wife. I had a touch of it a couple of years ago and made it through this year unscathed. I had my last flu shot in 1998 and had the flu so bad that year that I swore off it forever. Until last year's touch of the scourge, that was my last dance with that junk. I don't want that crap in my body. I'll trust my hand washing, my immune system, and my normal hygiene practices.

But if they DO come up with a vaccine, if the next Jonas Salk is out there right now with this thing in its sights, then I'll be in line to receive the miracle. This virus is awful. It is not flu light. There wouldn't be tens of thousands dead in New York otherwise. That's what scares me at my most anxious moments. Why are there so many dead there? What is THAT strain doing? Where is THAT strain hiding? Where will THAT strain show up next?

Stay safe everyone! Wash your hands. And wear a mask for your friends and family, not for yourself! It doesn't hurt.

I have been taking flu shots I think since starting college (50+ years) and I don't believe I have ever had the flu. But I strongly concur with "Wash your hands. And wear a mask for your friends and family, not for yourself!"

 

[steverocks35]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/plandemic-the-viral-coronavirus-documentary-stars-a-discredited-doctor-and-sham-science

Good article about the coronavirus grifters in that crazy “Plandemic” video

 

[OUsky]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/plandemic-the-viral-coronavirus-documentary-stars-a-discredited-doctor-and-sham-science

Good article about the coronavirus grifters in that crazy “Plandemic” video

People actually watch this stuff and believe it. LOL

 

[OUAllDay28]

Or if when all the data comes out, it turns out to be the flu-light.

Almost 80k people have died from the coronavirus, it's been the daily leading cause of death for the past month, dozens of thousands more people are projected to die from it and this is all despite the "overreaction" of taking extreme social distancing measures. I'm curious when the goalposts will stop moving.

 

[WTSooner]

Almost 80k people have died from the coronavirus, it's been the daily leading cause of death for the past month, dozens of thousands more people are projected to die from it and this is all despite the "overreaction" of taking extreme social distancing measures. I'm curious when the goalposts will stop moving.

If 40% of us have been infected, with these death numbers, that wouldn't be very scary would it?

This clearly effects a couple of classes of people WAY more than others. We don't know who has been infected and never showed symptoms. And something like 50% of the cases have been in NY. Outside of a couple of hot spots and the elderly, this thing is no more scary than the flu. I'm open to waiting until we have enough good data to support that, but it's true based on what I believe is factual today. For me. In Oklahoma. If I lived in NY I might feel different.

 

[thebigabd]

If 40% of us have been infected, with these death numbers, that wouldn't be very scary would it?

This clearly effects a couple of classes of people WAY more than others. We don't know who has been infected and never showed symptoms. And something like 50% of the cases have been in NY. Outside of a couple of hot spots and the elderly, this thing is no more scary than the flu. I'm open to waiting until we have enough good data to support that, but it's true based on what I believe is factual today. For me. In Oklahoma. If I lived in NY I might feel different.

Explain that in more detail for me.... how can something be the daily leading cause of death for like 2 months, but not be scarier than the flu?

 

[stormspencer]

If 40% of us have been infected, with these death numbers, that wouldn't be very scary would it?

This clearly effects a couple of classes of people WAY more than others. We don't know who has been infected and never showed symptoms. And something like 50% of the cases have been in NY. Outside of a couple of hot spots and the elderly, this thing is no more scary than the flu. I'm open to waiting until we have enough good data to support that, but it's true based on what I believe is factual today. For me. In Oklahoma. If I lived in NY I might feel different.

Exactly.

As of today, 45% of U.S. covid deaths are in two states (NY and NJ). 60% of the deaths have occured in the Northeast Corridor (NY, NJ, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Massachussets). I have my own theory about this, but I have stated it several times throughout the thread.

Connecticut is now reporting 60% of their deaths are in Nursing homes and long term care facilities:
https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/CT-nursing-homes-to-receive-coronavirus-testing-15254996.php

Add in Europe as well:
https://www.businessinsider.com/half-europes-covid-19-deaths-in-long-term-care-facilities-2020-4


The data showing this is widespread, largely asymptomatic, and very low-risk beyond defined vulnerable populations is as solid as can be.

Still, for the time being, I do believe we should wear masks in public spaces where we are bound to encounter people we don't know.

 

[hoopsaustin]

People actually watch this stuff and believe it. LOL

Meh. People are scared and dont trust the government (i dont blame them for that one..)

 

[AdaSooner]

We’ve actually hit a wall on testing. This idea that we are testing massive amounts of people is just not true. I can’t even get myself or any of the staff tested, despite practically begging for it, and I work for the federal government. We need to double our testing, at least, maybe triple and also do massive contact tracing before we should think about “reopening.” But I realize that’s not going to happen.

Steverocks35, less than a week ago you were saying the employees in your hospital have not been tested. Imagine my surprise last night when KTEN television reported that “every health department in Oklahoma was testing for the Covid virus.” I did a search on the topic this morning and found this:

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/testing-sites

Assuming these reports are accurate, is testing readily accessible now? Have you and the employees in your facility been tested? If not, is there a reason? If you have been tested, why haven’t you shared the good news with us? I hope all of the tests were negative!

 

[WTSooner]

Explain that in more detail for me.... how can something be the daily leading cause of death for like 2 months, but not be scarier than the flu?

I already did. Because it feeds on a few classes of people and is out of control in a couple of hot spots. For THOSE people and in THOSE areas, yes, it's scarier than the flu.

As of this morning 80% of the deaths in Oklahoma are people 65+.

If you back out the 65+ group in OK altogether (cases and deaths), we are left with this:
Confirmed cases - 3,156
Confirmed deaths - 54
Percentage - 1.7%

Let's say that 10% more of the non-65+ Oklahomans have been infected and didn't know it (and I think 10% is extremely low):

Going to pull my population data from here:
https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in-oklahoma

Total pop - males 65+ - females 65+
3.6M - 215k - 273k = 3.1M

10% of 3.1M is 310k. If 310k Oklahomans under the age of 65 have gotten this, and I'm feeling nice so I'll double the reported total deaths for those under 65 to 104, that would mean the death rate for those less than 65 is somewhere around 0.034%. Even if you reduce the 310k by 1/3, and keep the known death rate doubled (104/203k), that death rate for those under 65 would be 0.051%.

From what I've seen, it appears the flu death rate is generally reported around 0.1%.

You can keep playing with my denominator above all you want, but you can lower it all the way to 100,000, while still using double the known deaths, to get to 0.1%. 100,000 would be only 3% of the non-65+ population of Oklahoma.

There is no way only 3,156 non-65+ year olds in Oklahoma have contracted this virus. None. Especially with reports daily that the majority of those infected may show no symptoms. I've seen much higher percentages than the 10% number I threw out used. Like I said, even at THREE PERCENT, with the known deaths, we're right around the flu death rate for non-65+ year olds.

 

[Eielson]

I already did. Because it feeds on a few classes of people and is out of control in a couple of hot spots. For THOSE people and in THOSE areas, yes, it's scarier than the flu.

As of this morning 80% of the deaths in Oklahoma are people 65+.

If you back out the 65+ group in OK altogether (cases and deaths), we are left with this:
Confirmed cases - 3,156
Confirmed deaths - 54
Percentage - 1.7%

Let's say that 10% more of the non-65+ Oklahomans have been infected and didn't know it (and I think 10% is extremely low):

Going to pull my population data from here:
https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in-oklahoma

Total pop - males 65+ - females 65+
3.6M - 215k - 273k = 3.1M

10% of 3.1M is 310k. If 310k Oklahomans under the age of 65 have gotten this, and I'm feeling nice so I'll double the reported total deaths for those under 65 to 104, that would mean the death rate for those less than 65 is somewhere around 0.034%. Even if you reduce the 310k by 1/3, and keep the known death rate doubled (104/203k), that death rate for those under 65 would be 0.051%.

From what I've seen, it appears the flu death rate is generally reported around 0.1%.

You can keep playing with my denominator above all you want, but you can lower it all the way to 100,000, while still using double the known deaths, to get to 0.1%. 100,000 would be only 3% of the non-65+ population of Oklahoma.

There is no way only 3,156 non-65+ year olds in Oklahoma have contracted this virus. None. Especially with reports daily that the majority of those infected may show no symptoms. I've seen much higher percentages than the 10% number I threw out used. Like I said, even at THREE PERCENT, with the known deaths, we're right around the flu death rate for non-65+ year olds.

That's a whole lot of guessing.

 

[vbdad]

Steverocks35, less than a week ago you were saying the employees in your hospital have not been tested. Imagine my surprise last last night when KTEN television reported that “every health department in Oklahoma was testing for the Covid virus.” I did a search on the topic this morning and found this:

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/testing-sites

Assuming these reports are accurate, is testing readily accessible
now? Have you and the employees in your facility been tested? If not, is there a reason? If you have been tested, why haven’t you shared the good news with us? I hope all of the tests were negative!

I don't know how available testing is but it is certainly available. All of our patients undergoing procedures are being tested with a 24 hour turn around.
Anyone can make an appointment with the health department and be tested.

Integris Baptist had tested over 700 patients for elective procedures and only one was positive and they were asymptomatic. FYI this isn't my facility.

Steve works for the federal government at a VA facility. The VA system certainly isn't known for their efficiency.

My hospital has had no staff test positive for Covid. We aren't a general hospital and haven't had many patients with it but still no one positive. We do have a physician whose husband was positive and very sick. She nor her kids got it.

 

[Eielson]

My hospital has had no staff test positive for Covid. We aren't a general hospital and haven't had many patients with it but still no one positive. We do have a physician whose husband was positive and very sick. She nor her kids got it.

It seems this has been a widespread phenomenon. The spread of infection to healthcare workers has been lower than I would have expected.

 

[WTSooner]

That's a whole lot of guessing.

Not really. Only number we don't know is the infected but unconfirmed. There have been plenty of educated guesses on what that number or percent likely is, and I went substantially lower AND doubled the known death rate.

 

[coolm]

how close are all of you willing to put your loved ones' hand to the bandsaw blade? that's the question you're answering. and make sure it's your 9 month old granddaughters' hand.

 

[steverocks35]

Steverocks35, less than a week ago you were saying the employees in your hospital have not been tested. Imagine my surprise last night when KTEN television reported that “every health department in Oklahoma was testing for the Covid virus.” I did a search on the topic this morning and found this:

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/testing-sites

Assuming these reports are accurate, is testing readily accessible now? Have you and the employees in your facility been tested? If not, is there a reason? If you have been tested, why haven’t you shared the good news with us? I hope all of the tests were negative!

I had no idea the health department was offering this. I’ll let the staff know they have this option. Thanks for posting.

 

[jmizzy4ou]

Made my usual Sunday trek to Walmart for groceries. Couldn't believe how many people were there, as I've been able to get in and out pretty fast on Sundays during quarantine. People were certainly much closer than 6 ft apart, and less than 1/2 I saw wore masks. The elderly crowd mostly had on masks, but every other group was kinda sporadic....

 

[soonertravis]

I already did. Because it feeds on a few classes of people and is out of control in a couple of hot spots. For THOSE people and in THOSE areas, yes, it's scarier than the flu.

As of this morning 80% of the deaths in Oklahoma are people 65+.

If you back out the 65+ group in OK altogether (cases and deaths), we are left with this:
Confirmed cases - 3,156
Confirmed deaths - 54
Percentage - 1.7%

Let's say that 10% more of the non-65+ Oklahomans have been infected and didn't know it (and I think 10% is extremely low):

Going to pull my population data from here:
https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in-oklahoma

Total pop - males 65+ - females 65+
3.6M - 215k - 273k = 3.1M

10% of 3.1M is 310k. If 310k Oklahomans under the age of 65 have gotten this, and I'm feeling nice so I'll double the reported total deaths for those under 65 to 104, that would mean the death rate for those less than 65 is somewhere around 0.034%. Even if you reduce the 310k by 1/3, and keep the known death rate doubled (104/203k), that death rate for those under 65 would be 0.051%.

From what I've seen, it appears the flu death rate is generally reported around 0.1%.

You can keep playing with my denominator above all you want, but you can lower it all the way to 100,000, while still using double the known deaths, to get to 0.1%. 100,000 would be only 3% of the non-65+ population of Oklahoma.

There is no way only 3,156 non-65+ year olds in Oklahoma have contracted this virus. None. Especially with reports daily that the majority of those infected may show no symptoms. I've seen much higher percentages than the 10% number I threw out used. Like I said, even at THREE PERCENT, with the known deaths, we're right around the flu death rate for non-65+ year olds.

I'm no expert and hesitate to wade into this argument, but I am not sure why people think that it is impacting people in the NE differently than it would impact people in our part of the country. The most likely thing in my view is that it just had not moved to our part of the country in large swaths before we went into the lock down. The lock down clearly had a huge impact on the spread. That has been very good for us overall.

I think gradual reopening is appropriate, but we should be wearing masks and taking other precautions. And we should do that because it does have an impact on people over 60. Guess what. That is my parents. While it may not have the impact on people under 60 that it does to those over 60, those under 60 are responsible for the spread of this. The highly infectious nature of this disease and the fact that people spread it while asymptomatic endangers those for whom it is very deadly.

People should understand stories like the choir group of 60 people. No one had symptoms during a practice and no one was coughing. Despite that fact, 45 people were infected. 2 died. It is dangerous to get into big groups.

I am not willing to take that chance with my family and I hope you will protect mine as well.