I really like Lon. Above all else he is a great guy and has been a great representative for the school and the program coming off a very embarrassing low point at the end of the Capel era. LK took over a program really in shambles. Five years later he was in the Final Four. So through his first five years in Norman I would say Lon did a great job. Not perfect of course, there have always been some game-day things that frustrate me, even with the F4 team, but big picture through five years Lon had done about as well as I think is reasonable for OU basketball. That team got better every year, earned a higher seed every year, and ended with a Sweet 16 and Final 4 in back to back years. The players also developed well under his tutelage and the teams were fun to watch and generally played hard and with good energy.
If you wanted to nit-pick maybe you give Lon an “A-“ through those first five years depending on how much you take off for the North Dakota State loss in the Tourney and/or generally not playing well in B12 Tourney. For me, I’m fine calling that five year stretch a solid “A.”
Since then, it’s been rough. I’ve defended Lon for two and a half years now based largely on the equity he built with me during that run. I was OK with a clunker season in 2017 after the Final Four team left. I figured they were due for a downturn and didn’t stress much about that season. However, it was a REALLY BAD season and part of me likes to think OU should never be that bad. But again, I chalked that up to a mulligan and didn’t lose sleep or faith over it. I told a few of my buddies who started grumbling after that season to chill out and have some perspective.
Then, along comes TY and last year and for six weeks it looks like we are going to be the biggest story in college hoops. I never thought we’d maintain that Top 5 pace or that TY would stay THAT hot, but I also did not foresee that absolute collapse that was to follow. I’m telling you, by the end of last year, that was one of the worst basketball teams I’ve ever seen— I say that only with some slight hyperbole. That wasn’t a “team” at all actually. It was a train wreck. I’ll admit I put most of the blame on TY for just not buying in or being the type of talent that could mesh with his athletically inferior teammates, but it obviously had to come back on Lon and staff as well. They had no answers at all as things just got worse and worse and worse. Yes, on paper I thought we earned our Dance bid, but we were absolutely NOT actually one of the 68 best teams in the field by that time. I’m pretty sure any team in the Top 150 would have taken us down. Rhode Island wasn’t really good and they didn’t even play all that well and they still beat us. Last year was a year that on paper was OK, but anyone with eyes knew something was very very wrong with that team from the midway point on. But still, I chalked it up to more of it being a bad fit with a five star guy and gave Lon another pass (although less of one than the year before).
Now, here were are... third season removed from the F4 and I think Lon is in a precarious spot. Now, I’m NOT saying I actually think his job is on the line. It’s not and it shouldn’t be because of the class coming in next year. It’s one of the highest rated classes in OU history and we have some talented returning players too— so no matter what, I want Lon coaching that team and would fear any change could run off the recruits.
But what is happening right now is very troubling to me. Again, on paper it’s OK. Had you told me before the year we’d be 15-6 at this point I would have taken that without question. But context matters. One very important thing for any team in any sport on any level is in-season improvement. Or at least avoiding in-season regression. Our non Con schedule doesn’t look nearly as tough as it did earlier, but we still clearly played well to start the season. Team was composed and played efficiently on both ends. I was impressed. It’s not a very talented group, but there is a little depth there and lots of experience. Looked like guys had found roles and players had confidence. I didn’t expect us to keep up that pace once B12 play started, but I was really confident that this was going to be a tough bunch and one that could at least go 9-9 in conf and wind up over-achieving on their Dance seed.
But what we’ve seen in conference play is not good. 3-5 isn’t good on its own, but if not for OSU (and both of those wins were ugly) we are sitting at 1-5. Most damning is that we’ve lost back to back home games (against decent but not great teams) in blowout fashion. We were totally non-competitive against KSU and Baylor. The Baylor game in particular was humiliating. Absolutely no answers anywhere on the floor. It felt like Baylor could have defended us 2 on 5 and we wouldn’t have scored. It was one of the worst games I’ve seen OU play at home since, well, ever. All of a sudden guys look lost and those defined roles from earlier in the year are all now scrambled and disheveled. A guy like Freeman for example who was contributing in December is now a total non-factor, or worse. Sure, competition goes up once conf play starts. But we see teams like Baylor and KSU doing the reverse of what we are doing. Their early season was meh, but they’ve gotten better and better. Even with our experience, we are going backwards.
I know this team has a ceiling. This was another transition-type year to bridge us to that big class next year. A Tourney appearance would be a good accomplishment. And frankly, an unexpected one for me based on my pre season thoughts. However, they earned the right for those expectations to change and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect far better than what they put on the floor so far in B12 play.
It’s not over yet by any means. The WVU game Saturday is merely the midway point in conf play. They could still turn it around quickly. Get to 5-5 and you are back on track. But right now it seems more likely they are headed towards 6-12 in conf than they are 9-9. And if they dip THAT low their Tourney dreams are probably going to be dashed. And considering where they started Jan that would be a real disappointment. More importantly, it would be a bad, bad look for LK. It would be the third straight year he winds up with a team not playing well at all come March. That is really troubling to me and doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy heading into next year with the incoming class. I really need to see something over these next several weeks to ease my concerns. I’ve been a pretty loyal Lon fanboy and apologist, but I’ve begun to waver and need him to reel me back in a bit.
If you wanted to nit-pick maybe you give Lon an “A-“ through those first five years depending on how much you take off for the North Dakota State loss in the Tourney and/or generally not playing well in B12 Tourney. For me, I’m fine calling that five year stretch a solid “A.”
Since then, it’s been rough. I’ve defended Lon for two and a half years now based largely on the equity he built with me during that run. I was OK with a clunker season in 2017 after the Final Four team left. I figured they were due for a downturn and didn’t stress much about that season. However, it was a REALLY BAD season and part of me likes to think OU should never be that bad. But again, I chalked that up to a mulligan and didn’t lose sleep or faith over it. I told a few of my buddies who started grumbling after that season to chill out and have some perspective.
Then, along comes TY and last year and for six weeks it looks like we are going to be the biggest story in college hoops. I never thought we’d maintain that Top 5 pace or that TY would stay THAT hot, but I also did not foresee that absolute collapse that was to follow. I’m telling you, by the end of last year, that was one of the worst basketball teams I’ve ever seen— I say that only with some slight hyperbole. That wasn’t a “team” at all actually. It was a train wreck. I’ll admit I put most of the blame on TY for just not buying in or being the type of talent that could mesh with his athletically inferior teammates, but it obviously had to come back on Lon and staff as well. They had no answers at all as things just got worse and worse and worse. Yes, on paper I thought we earned our Dance bid, but we were absolutely NOT actually one of the 68 best teams in the field by that time. I’m pretty sure any team in the Top 150 would have taken us down. Rhode Island wasn’t really good and they didn’t even play all that well and they still beat us. Last year was a year that on paper was OK, but anyone with eyes knew something was very very wrong with that team from the midway point on. But still, I chalked it up to more of it being a bad fit with a five star guy and gave Lon another pass (although less of one than the year before).
Now, here were are... third season removed from the F4 and I think Lon is in a precarious spot. Now, I’m NOT saying I actually think his job is on the line. It’s not and it shouldn’t be because of the class coming in next year. It’s one of the highest rated classes in OU history and we have some talented returning players too— so no matter what, I want Lon coaching that team and would fear any change could run off the recruits.
But what is happening right now is very troubling to me. Again, on paper it’s OK. Had you told me before the year we’d be 15-6 at this point I would have taken that without question. But context matters. One very important thing for any team in any sport on any level is in-season improvement. Or at least avoiding in-season regression. Our non Con schedule doesn’t look nearly as tough as it did earlier, but we still clearly played well to start the season. Team was composed and played efficiently on both ends. I was impressed. It’s not a very talented group, but there is a little depth there and lots of experience. Looked like guys had found roles and players had confidence. I didn’t expect us to keep up that pace once B12 play started, but I was really confident that this was going to be a tough bunch and one that could at least go 9-9 in conf and wind up over-achieving on their Dance seed.
But what we’ve seen in conference play is not good. 3-5 isn’t good on its own, but if not for OSU (and both of those wins were ugly) we are sitting at 1-5. Most damning is that we’ve lost back to back home games (against decent but not great teams) in blowout fashion. We were totally non-competitive against KSU and Baylor. The Baylor game in particular was humiliating. Absolutely no answers anywhere on the floor. It felt like Baylor could have defended us 2 on 5 and we wouldn’t have scored. It was one of the worst games I’ve seen OU play at home since, well, ever. All of a sudden guys look lost and those defined roles from earlier in the year are all now scrambled and disheveled. A guy like Freeman for example who was contributing in December is now a total non-factor, or worse. Sure, competition goes up once conf play starts. But we see teams like Baylor and KSU doing the reverse of what we are doing. Their early season was meh, but they’ve gotten better and better. Even with our experience, we are going backwards.
I know this team has a ceiling. This was another transition-type year to bridge us to that big class next year. A Tourney appearance would be a good accomplishment. And frankly, an unexpected one for me based on my pre season thoughts. However, they earned the right for those expectations to change and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect far better than what they put on the floor so far in B12 play.
It’s not over yet by any means. The WVU game Saturday is merely the midway point in conf play. They could still turn it around quickly. Get to 5-5 and you are back on track. But right now it seems more likely they are headed towards 6-12 in conf than they are 9-9. And if they dip THAT low their Tourney dreams are probably going to be dashed. And considering where they started Jan that would be a real disappointment. More importantly, it would be a bad, bad look for LK. It would be the third straight year he winds up with a team not playing well at all come March. That is really troubling to me and doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy heading into next year with the incoming class. I really need to see something over these next several weeks to ease my concerns. I’ve been a pretty loyal Lon fanboy and apologist, but I’ve begun to waver and need him to reel me back in a bit.
