What Is Your NCAA Tourney Seed Prediction?

[TINY]

A first round win should exceed expectations of any reasonable fan. Going into the season, the expectation was to make the tournament. Just because we started hot doesn’t mean it is reasonable to move the goal posts.

 

[Boom Soon]

A first round win should exceed expectations of any reasonable fan. Going into the season, the expectation was to make the tournament. Just because we started hot doesn’t mean it is reasonable to move the goal posts.

That’s fair.

 

[WichitaSooner]

A first round win should exceed expectations of any reasonable fan. Going into the season, the expectation was to make the tournament. Just because we started hot doesn’t mean it is reasonable to move the goal posts.

I’d argue that preseason expectations (including my own) are just guess work these days with so much roster movement. I think it is absolutely fair to adjust expectations up or down after watching the team play a few games and assessing the talent level. I said a couple weeks ago that I was way off on Waldo and Moore, and if I had known how good they would be, I would have felt this team had the potential to finish in the top 5 in our league. Sometimes preseason expectations are exceeded not because a team overachieved, but because fans and media underestimated their talent.

 

[lmg088]

Didn't read all 20 pages, but was a little surprised to see a stat on CBS' bracketology site. They show all the Quad 1, 2, 3, 4 win/loss records and OU is 1 of only 5 to have no Quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. 3 were 1 seeds and the other is Auburn at a 5 seed.

Of course some of that is the strength of the Big 12 as we are 4-12 in Quad 1, but only Houston can say the same.

 

[OUSKINS]

Didn't read all 20 pages, but was a little surprised to see a stat on CBS' bracketology site. They show all the Quad 1, 2, 3, 4 win/loss records and OU is 1 of only 5 to have no Quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. 3 were 1 seeds and the other is Auburn at a 5 seed.

Of course some of that is the strength of the Big 12 as we are 4-12 in Quad 1, but only Houston can say the same.

I think ultimately saves us this year. Our NET is below majority of other Bubble Teams and if they are using the eye test, that will work against us too. But we do have the feather in our cap of no bad losses at all; and it’s somewhat unique when comped to all of the other teams that have otherwise similar or slightly better resumes. I think it for sure keeps us in the field. I’m 50/50 on play in or not.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I think ultimately saves us this year. Our NET is below majority of other Bubble Teams and if they are using the eye test, that will work against us too. But we do have the feather in our cap of no bad losses at all; and it’s somewhat unique when comped to all of the other teams that have otherwise similar or slightly better resumes. I think it for sure keeps us in the field. I’m 50/50 on play in or not.

The committee is unpredictable on this stuff. Sometimes they value no bad losses, but other years they focus more on how you did against top competition. Our Q1 record is bad. In our league, you should be able to pick up a few Q1 wins almost by accident.

 

[TEvans4Three]

I think ultimately saves us this year. Our NET is below majority of other Bubble Teams and if they are using the eye test, that will work against us too. But we do have the feather in our cap of no bad losses at all; and it’s somewhat unique when comped to all of the other teams that have otherwise similar or slightly better resumes. I think it for sure keeps us in the field. I’m 50/50 on play in or not.

NET isn't end all be all bc it's metrics take margin of victory against glow-worms too high of value, eye test is silly, and we are way more than 50/50 above play-in.

The committee is unpredictable on this stuff. Sometimes they value no bad losses, but other years they focus more on how you did against top competition. Our Q1 record is bad. In our league, you should be able to pick up a few Q1 wins almost by accident.

Our Q2-Q4 record is impeccable. Depends on what the committee wants. But based off of every other single bracketology report, we are in every bracket.

 

[BoulderSooner]

 

[lmg088]

The committee is unpredictable on this stuff. Sometimes they value no bad losses, but other years they focus more on how you did against top competition. Our Q1 record is bad. In our league, you should be able to pick up a few Q1 wins almost by accident.

I don't feel great on how the season ended, but if you just look at the number of Quad 1 wins, most teams in the projected field have around 3-6 wins until you get to the 4 seeds and higher. Of course all those teams except TCU have single digit losses in that category.

Now if they take how have you done lately approach, then.....

 

[Sooner04]

A 25-footer from McCollum and a 15-point comeback to win at home in OT, otherwise it's a Capel-era LOSE-OUT.
Some of these results over the last 24 hours are not helping my blood pressure. We're sweating this more than we should......but we're to blame!

 

[TINY]

A 25-footer from McCollum and a 15-point comeback to win at home in OT, otherwise it's a Capel-era LOSE-OUT.
Some of these results over the last 24 hours are not helping my blood pressure. We're sweating this more than we should......but we're to blame!

Darthard doesn’t trip over his own shoelace against Houston, and OU might have beaten the #1 team in the country. It works both ways.

 

[StoopsBros]

Edit: disregard. Finally looked this account up on Bracketmatrix. He's terrible. Carry on.

 

[Sooner04]

Darthard doesn’t trip over his own shoelace against Houston, and OU might have beaten the #1 team in the country. It works both ways.

I think it's part and parcel on how one views most things regarding the program.
Me: we're lucky as hell to win in GIA because we needed an 87% foul shooter to miss the freebie.
Tiny: Darthard corrals the loose ball and we outscore the #1 team in OT.

To each his own. I think we're in by the chinny chin chin, but I don't have to squint very hard for the reasons if we're left out. The NET has been very kind to us, so I'm betting we're safe.

 

[OUSKINS]

For those that think we are “safe” especially in terms of play-in, I strongly suggest checking those tweets above. We are absolutely in danger territory pending the games later today.

 

[OUSKINS]

I think it's part and parcel on how one views most things regarding the program.
Me: we're lucky as hell to win in GIA because we needed an 87% foul shooter to miss the freebie.
Tiny: Darthard corrals the loose ball and we outscore the #1 team in OT.

To each his own. I think we're in by the chinny chin chin, but I don't have to squint very hard for the reasons if we're left out. The NET has been very kind to us, so I'm betting we're safe.

Agree. I think we are in and if we are left out I think you could compile arguments to make a mildly compelling case… but not really. At the end of the day, the 8 or 9 teams in that last four in/last four byes/out zone are all very similar with the slightest of margins separating. I absolutely CANNOT sit here and say our resume is definitively superior to say, Pittsburgh. So if we are left out, there shouldn’t be any kicking and stomping. Just a shoulder shrug and acceptance.

And again, the eye test isn’t our friend. I watched all of our games this year. I watched Miss St today. At no point this year since the first game of conf play have we looked that good.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I think it's part and parcel on how one views most things regarding the program.
Me: we're lucky as hell to win in GIA because we needed an 87% foul shooter to miss the freebie.
Tiny: Darthard corrals the loose ball and we outscore the #1 team in OT.

To each his own. I think we're in by the chinny chin chin, but I don't have to squint very hard for the reasons if we're left out. The NET has been very kind to us, so I'm betting we're safe.

Exactly where I am. It’s not as if we were leading Houston when we failed to grab that rebound. And it’s not as if luck played in to him not getting that loose ball. Dart played well that night, but really good teams don’t let that ball slip through their fingers. Likewise, blowing a big lead and missing tons of free throws against Tech wasn’t luck. It was lack of execution and smarts.


Does anyone remember whether the play-in games are the first things announced Sunday on the show? I think they are but can’t remember for certain. Depending on how the next 48 hours play out, I’ll know whether I want to see our names on that list.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Exactly where I am. It’s not as if we were leading Houston when we failed to grab that rebound. And it’s not as if luck played in to him not getting that loose ball. Dart played well that night, but really good teams don’t let that ball slip through their fingers. Likewise, blowing a big lead and missing tons of free throws against Tech wasn’t luck. It was lack of execution and smarts.


Does anyone remember whether the play-in games are the first things announced Sunday on the show? I think they are but can’t remember for certain. Depending on how the next 48 hours play out, I’ll know whether I want to see our names on that list.

i don't believe so i think they are just announced at their spot in the bracket

 

[IndySooner]

He’s moving teams too much based on conference tourneys. Committee never does that. Conference tourneys can get you in/out, but rarely move your seed far.

 

[StoopsBros]

Doesn't really belong here but, in the rare chance OU misses the tourney, I'd be in favor of not going to the NIT. Some will agree, some will disagree. I'd much rather Moser just get to work on the portal, etc.

A lot of teams will start to do this, probably.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Doesn't really belong here but, in the rare chance OU misses the tourney, I'd be in favor of not going to the NIT. Some will agree, some will disagree. I'd much rather Moser just get to work on the portal, etc.

A lot of teams will start to do this, probably.

I’d rather Joe get busy on Porter!