Big 12 Tournament Seeding....oh boy

stormspencer

stormspencer

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Just when you think this team has turned a corner and they are a lock for "not" playing on Wednesday, well...they could very well end up in the 7/10 game. Technically, OU could still be seeded anywhere from 3 to 7 next week. If you don't want to play on Wednesday, one of two things need to happen on Saturday:
OU wins @TCU
or
WV loses at home to Baylor.

I honestly think one of the above happening is very probable, but right now, we as fans are coming out of the "Texas hangover"....so once again I don't trust this group.

Here are a couple of more scenarios as food for thought:
  • If OU wins along with losses by Texas and Tech, then OU is the 3 seed.
  • If OU wins, Texas wins and Tech loses, then OU is the 4 seed (playing Tech).
  • If OU wins, Tech wins and Texas loses, then OU is the 4 seed (playing Texas).

I didn't even want to discuss the scenarios surrounding an OU loss on Saturday, but if OU loses and WV wins, then OU is #7 seed....sigh.
 
stormspencer said:
Just when you think this team has turned a corner and they are a lock for "not" playing on Wednesday, well...they could very well end up in the 7/10 game. Technically, OU could still be seeded anywhere from 3 to 7 next week. If you don't want to play on Wednesday, one of two things need to happen on Saturday:
OU wins @TCU
or
WV loses at home to Baylor.

I honestly think one of the above happening is very probable, but right now, we as fans are coming out of the "Texas hangover"....so once again I don't trust this group.

Here are a couple of more scenarios as food for thought:
  • If OU wins along with losses by Texas and Tech, then OU is the 3 seed.
  • If OU wins, Texas wins and Tech loses, then OU is the 4 seed (playing Tech).
  • If OU wins, Tech wins and Texas loses, then OU is the 4 seed (playing Texas).

I didn't even want to discuss the scenarios surrounding an OU loss on Saturday, but if OU loses and WV wins, then OU is #7 seed....sigh.
Click to expand...

What if OU loses and WVU loses?
 
thebigabd said:
What if OU loses and WVU loses?
Click to expand...

If OU and WVa both lose, and Tech loses, and Texas game doesn't matter:
OU #5, Tech #4, Texas #3
If OU and WVa both lose, and Tech wins, and Texas game doesn't matter:
OU #5, Texas #4, Tech #3
 
thebigabd said:
What if OU loses and WVU loses?
Click to expand...

Then OU is the #5 seed no matter what. OU, TCU and WV would all be tied at 8-10. Round-robin records between those three would be:
OU 3-1.....5 seed
TCU 2-2....6 seed
WV 1-3.....7 seed
 
stormspencer said:
Then OU is the #5 seed no matter what. OU, TCU and WV would all be tied at 8-10. Round-robin records between those three would be:
OU 3-1.....5 seed
TCU 2-2....6 seed
WV 1-3.....7 seed
Click to expand...

So let's say OU loses to TCU and ends up as the 5 seed. That means the first game is against the 4 seed, which probably means Texas Tech which is a good matchup for OU.

But the problem with that is... Tech is likely losing to Kansas on saturday which means they are 18-13 heading into the Big 12 Tournament and on a 4 game losing streak.

If OU loses to TCU, and Tech loses to Kansas... are OU and Tech playing for a NCAA Tournament bid in the Big 12 tournament?

OU would be 18-13 as well in that situation, and a loss to Tech in the Big 12 Tournament puts OU at 18-14 and Tech at 19-13.

I am not sure 18-14, on a 3 game losing streak gets it done. A loss to TCU puts OU in the play-in game I bet. Follow that with a loss to Texas Tech and you are at serious risk of not making it.

Agreed?
 
thebigabd said:
So let's say OU loses to TCU and ends up as the 5 seed. That means the first game is against the 4 seed, which probably means Texas Tech which is a good matchup for OU.

But the problem with that is... Tech is likely losing to Kansas on saturday which means they are 18-13 heading into the Big 12 Tournament and on a 4 game losing streak.

If OU loses to TCU, and Tech loses to Kansas... are OU and Tech playing for a NCAA Tournament bid in the Big 12 tournament?

OU would be 18-13 as well in that situation, and a loss to Tech in the Big 12 Tournament puts OU at 18-14 and Tech at 19-13.

I am not sure 18-14, on a 3 game losing streak gets it done. A loss to TCU puts OU in the play-in game I bet. Follow that with a loss to Texas Tech and you are at serious risk of not making it.

Agreed?
Click to expand...
Wow, great point and tough call.

As it stands today, they have played twice as many Q4 teams, we have more Q1 & Q2 wins and the same amount of Q1 & Q2 losses. They have a better NET ranking though. On paper, very similar.

I am not sure losing to TCU solely puts us in the play in game, but losing to TCU and in the first round puts us on the edge of the seat. In that case it would be a tough case for us to make even if they don't evaluate how you finish as much as used to be. It still reflects on total record.
 
thebigabd said:
So let's say OU loses to TCU and ends up as the 5 seed. That means the first game is against the 4 seed, which probably means Texas Tech which is a good matchup for OU.

But the problem with that is... Tech is likely losing to Kansas on saturday which means they are 18-13 heading into the Big 12 Tournament and on a 4 game losing streak.

If OU loses to TCU, and Tech loses to Kansas... are OU and Tech playing for a NCAA Tournament bid in the Big 12 tournament?

OU would be 18-13 as well in that situation, and a loss to Tech in the Big 12 Tournament puts OU at 18-14 and Tech at 19-13.

I am not sure 18-14, on a 3 game losing streak gets it done. A loss to TCU puts OU in the play-in game I bet. Follow that with a loss to Texas Tech and you are at serious risk of not making it.

Agreed?
Click to expand...

I honestly don't think it matters if we lose out. We should be in no matter what. It's a 68-team tournament and the bids need to come from somewhere. We have five Q1 wins, and if Texas keeps winning, we could get to six. That's "heady" stuff in 2020. Look around, and there are a lot of BCS schools a lot worse than us, even at 18-14. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to see it come to this, and I wouldn't be 100% confident come SS, but I truly believe we are fine, when stacked up against the rest.

(I say this under the assumption there won't be a lot of bid stealers winning conference tournaments)
 
thebigabd said:
So let's say OU loses to TCU and ends up as the 5 seed. That means the first game is against the 4 seed, which probably means Texas Tech which is a good matchup for OU.

But the problem with that is... Tech is likely losing to Kansas on saturday which means they are 18-13 heading into the Big 12 Tournament and on a 4 game losing streak.

If OU loses to TCU, and Tech loses to Kansas... are OU and Tech playing for a NCAA Tournament bid in the Big 12 tournament?

OU would be 18-13 as well in that situation, and a loss to Tech in the Big 12 Tournament puts OU at 18-14 and Tech at 19-13.

I am not sure 18-14, on a 3 game losing streak gets it done. A loss to TCU puts OU in the play-in game I bet. Follow that with a loss to Texas Tech and you are at serious risk of not making it.

Agreed?
Click to expand...

ABD, it's a very difficult question/scenario to answer. There are just too many moving parts and games to be played between now and Thursday morning in KC. For instance:
  • Will teams like ETSU and Northern Iowa win their conference tournaments? If not, there will likely be two bid stealers from those conferences.
  • Will some P-6 team that is currently way out of the tournament (Syracuse, Ole Miss, Oregon State, etc.) get hot and win their conference tournament?
  • What bubble teams will fade and which ones might pick up a Q1 win or two?

We will all have a lot better idea come Thursday morning regarding what our future holds. In the meantime, it would only benefit OU if a few of these teams would lose over the next several days (or early in their conference tournaments):
Stanford, Rutgers, USC, Xavier, Texas Tech, Indiana, Cincinnati, Wichita State, Utah State, NC State, Richmond, Arkansas

But to answer your question, all things being equal, I think OU is at worst in the play-in game.
 
Last edited:
stormspencer said:
ABD, it's a very difficult question/scenario to answer. There are just too many moving parts and games to be played between now and Thursday morning in KC. For instance:
  • Will teams like ETSU and Northern Iowa win their conference tournaments? If not, there will likely be two bid stealers from those conferences.
  • Will some P-6 team that is currently way out of the tournament (Syracuse, Ole Miss, Oregon State, etc.) get hot and win their conference tournament?
  • What bubble teams will fade and which ones might pick up a Q1 win or two?

We will all have a lot better idea come Thursday morning regarding what our future holds. In the meantime, it would only benefit OU if a few of these teams would lose over the next several days (or early in their conference tournaments):
Stanford, Rutgers, USC, Xavier, Texas Tech, Indiana, Cincinnati, Wichita State, Utah State, NC State, Richmond, Arkansas

But to answer your question, all things being equal, I think OU is at worst in the play-in game.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the thought and effort on that... one last question though.

Lets assume the OU loss again... and OU finishes 7th. This means they play Kansas State in the Wednesday game, and then have a chance on someone on Thursday.

In the event of a TCU loss, is it better to finish 7th and get another win against KSU and then play someone else on Thursday? In other words:

Scenario 1
TCU Loss
KSU Win
Lose to Someone on Thursday

Scenario 2
TCU Loss
Texas Tech Loss

Which of these are favorable?
 
thebigabd said:
So let's say OU loses to TCU and ends up as the 5 seed. That means the first game is against the 4 seed, which probably means Texas Tech which is a good matchup for OU.

But the problem with that is... Tech is likely losing to Kansas on saturday which means they are 18-13 heading into the Big 12 Tournament and on a 4 game losing streak.

If OU loses to TCU, and Tech loses to Kansas... are OU and Tech playing for a NCAA Tournament bid in the Big 12 tournament?

OU would be 18-13 as well in that situation, and a loss to Tech in the Big 12 Tournament puts OU at 18-14 and Tech at 19-13.

I am not sure 18-14, on a 3 game losing streak gets it done. A loss to TCU puts OU in the play-in game I bet. Follow that with a loss to Texas Tech and you are at serious risk of not making it.

Agreed?
Click to expand...

Tech would already be a lock.

Ou would be likely in either way
 
we are in no matter what. We lost both we are in dayton but still in
 
thebigabd said:
Thanks for the thought and effort on that... one last question though.

Lets assume the OU loss again... and OU finishes 7th. This means they play Kansas State in the Wednesday game, and then have a chance on someone on Thursday.

In the event of a TCU loss, is it better to finish 7th and get another win against KSU and then play someone else on Thursday? In other words:

Scenario 1
TCU Loss
KSU Win
Lose to Someone on Thursday

Scenario 2
TCU Loss
Texas Tech Loss

Which of these are favorable?
Click to expand...

I would probably say scenario one is slightly more favorable although beating a bad KSU team doesn't really move the needle much.....unless we beat them by 15+, and then it may move us up a spot or two in NET rankings (since it's on a neutral floor). It would also prevent us from going into the tourney on a 3-game losing streak.....but we would be sweating it out pretty bad in either scenario.
 
7 seed won't happen! I hope we play Texas or Texas Tech again. 3 vs 6 match up is what I'd prefer, stay away from KU.
 
Well....it comes down to this:
  • If OU wins and Texas wins, then OU is the #4 seed
  • If OU wins and Texas loses, then OU is the #3 seed
  • If OU loses, then OU is the #7 seed and playing on Wednesday.:mad:
 
Unreal the difference in the standing because of a couple missed FTs. Must win today....and go OSU
 
stormspencer said:
Well....it comes down to this:
  • If OU wins and Texas wins, then OU is the #4 seed
  • If OU wins and Texas loses, then OU is the #3 seed
  • If OU loses, then OU is the #7 seed and playing on Wednesday.:mad:
Click to expand...

Looks like Tech is #5, KState is #10 regardless of the other games left. Of course KU #1, Baylor #2. OSU and ISU are #8 and #9, depending on their game outcomes.

To add to the above
  • If OU wins and Texas wins, then OU is the #4 seed- playing Tech
  • If OU wins and Texas loses, then OU is the #3 seed- playing WVa
  • If OU loses, then OU is the #7 seed and playing on Wednesday- playing K State.:mad:
 
Texas being embarrassed at the half down 22. Now it’s time for the team we saw in Morgantown and okc
 
So, if OU wins they’re a 3 seed and if they lose they’re a 7? Correct?
 
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