Big 12 tourney loss a costly mark against OU’s NCAA tournament case

[bluesooner17]

By Tyler Palmateer
CNHI Sports Oklahoma

After losing to Texas to end the regular season, Oklahoma women’s basketball coach Sherri Coale had an opportunity to make her team’s case for the NCAA tournament.

She took a breath and delivered a 568-word response about why the Sooners belong off the bubble.

Their RPI ranking was in the top 30, with a schedule that has been either No. 1 or 2 most of the season, and she believes teams shouldn’t be punished for that.

“You tell me we’re not one of the best 64 teams in the country,” Coale said. “I don’t even think it’s a conversation.”

It’s unknown whether Coale’s confidence dipped following Saturday’s 90-83 loss to TCU in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals. The topic wasn’t broached in an abbreviated press conference afterward.

Now comes the wait.

OU (16-14) will learn during the March 12 selection show whether it has accomplished enough, in the NCAA selection committee’s eyes, for a 19th consecutive berth in the tournament.

The Sooners’ RPI dropped to No. 31 on Sunday and their schedule strength stayed at No. 2. Both figures stood to rise if OU had advanced in the Big 12 tournament to play No. 3 Baylor.

Outside of the Big 12, OU played five conference champions and seven teams that finished in the top-3 in their respective leagues. The Sooners went 1-4 against champions and 2-5 against top-3 league teams.

OU’s 2-10 record against ranked teams includes five losses to teams in the current top 10, including No. 1 Connecticut.

ESPN projected Oklahoma State — with the No. 56 RPI and 52nd-ranked schedule strength — in its latest bracket. Coale wonders about why the NCAA would reward teams with weaker schedules.

“The message would be sent, just buy a bunch of games, guarantee a bunch of games in pre-conference to get enough wins, because the only negative thing we have is our losses,” Coale said. Few will question the Sooners’ schedule strength, but their latest loss presents optics that could prove difficult to overcome.

OU was nearly blown out by a TCU team that ranks 70th in the RPI, falling behind by as many as 21 points in the first half. The Horned Frogs won all three of their games against the Sooners this season.

It was a lost opportunity for OU to continue a February crescendo in which it won six of eight games. One win in the Big 12 tournament could have helped outweigh what the Sooners lack in overall body of work.

“With a 5-1 mark in February, they have only recently been able to put a little distance between themselves and the .500 mark. That moved them into NCAA tournament consideration,” ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme wrote before OU’s last two losses. “The door is open for them to grab a spot.”

The question now is whether that door closed after OU’s second straight early exit from the Big 12 tournament. OU’s comeback against TCU showed spirit, but the Sooners shot 38.4 percent and were out of contention for one half.

Over the next week, Coale must hope the gauntlet of non-conference games she scheduled for her 2017-18 squad shines brighter in the selection committee’s mind than what looks, on paper, like a hot-and-cold season, which saw just one streak of three consecutive wins.

“We went to Oregon, we went to Connecticut, we went to South Dakota State, we went to DePaul and played one of the best women’s games of the entire season, it was an unbelievable women’s basketball game,” Coale said of OU’s 111-108 overtime loss in Chicago. “At the end of the day, what we are supposed to do in women’s basketball is grow this game. That’s why I go to DePaul and play, that’s why we go to Connecticut and play, we want to grow women’s basketball.

“So not only are you going to get maybe not rewarded for that, but you’re going to get punished for that? No way. I’m very confident.”

 

[sybarite]

Losing to TCU hurt. She has faith in the NCAA. I don't. But, she is also quite popular among her peers. They see a very different person than our message boards do.

Exactly how many current Big Twelve coaches are in the Hall of Fame due to their coaching ability? She is rather young to have achieved that.

Geno's comments were that Sherri is what women's college basketball should be about. Now, will the NCAA continue its love affair of Sherri?

 

[Oliver Hardy]

I have said for weeks now that if we get in it will be solely because Sherri Coale is our coach. She is revered in the coaching fraternity. We could get a break because of that.

We might squeak out one win if we get there, but that's 50-50 at best.

Do we deserve in the tourney? Frankly, no -- and it's not even close.

This team stinks and has from day 1.

 

[SoonerinNC]

We are maybe a top 30 team IF:

ViVi doesn't get in early foul trouble.
Ortiz hits a few treys
We have less than 15 turnovers
Manning is aggressive
We guard the 3 point line.

The key issue is that some times those thing happen other times not. If we don't make it, and it is very questionable whether we will or not, it is lack of consistency of the factors listed above.

I also suspect that Sherri's reputation is as big a factor as the overall team play.

I feel that we had to win the TCU game.

 

[soonermom1000]

TCU did not win all 3 games against OU this year......Jan. 4th...OU won at Norman 73 - 52

 

[sybarite]

ACC--1
1. Notre Dame
3. Louisville
8. Florida State
17. NC State
19. Duke
30. Virginia

SEC--2
4. Mississippi State
9. Tennessee
12. South Carolina
15. Texas A&M
22. Missouri
26. Georgia
27. LSU

Big Ten--3
6. Ohio State
16. Maryland
20. Iowa

Pacific Twelve--5
7. Oregon
10. UCLA
13. Stanford

Big Twelve--4
5. Baylor
11. Texas
33. Oklahoma

The Big Five conferences only account for twenty-one teams that are ranked better than Oklahoma in the rpi.

Now, what minor conference teams or lower ranked teams from the top five should be ranked above OU? I'll give you UConn.. We lost to South Dakota State---there.

Buffalo?
DePaul beat us there in two OT
Central Michigan?
Marquette?
Green Bay?
Villanova?
Princeton?
Dayton?

Then, look at the next ten in the rpi after OU.
Ball State
Syracuse
Gonzaga
Northern Colorado
Michigan
Rutgers
Quinnipiac
Minnesota
Oregon State
UCF

Which of these do you jump over OU because of record? At some point, you begin to get silly if you just jump teams up because they had a winning record, although they finished sixth or seventh in the same conference. For some time, Creme had West Virginia in the field of sixty-four. They did beat A&M at A&M. They never beat OU, Texas, Baylor. They were 8-10 in conference play, sixth. But, due to a very easy schedule, they were 21-11. OU beat them twice. This is the type of decision you have to make. Do you put them in the NCAA over a team that beat them twice because they had a better record due to schedule?

Every team behind Oklahoma in the rpi has the same question. How do you justify jumping them over a team that finished better in games against legitimate competition?

Every team has blemishes. Some really don't have anything to cause them to be considered as much of anything. If OU had played Oklahoma Christian twelve times, we would probably be at least 11-1, and our overall record would have been 22-8 entering the tournament. That's about what some teams did.

 

[Big12]

OU was the #4 seed in the Big 12 tournament, which should count as a positive, along with the other plusses.

Unfortunately, it may not matter that you're one of the best 64 teams in the country -- 28 teams get automatic bids (according to Creme's bracketology), so that leaves only 36 slots for those who did not win their conference championship.

Sherri Coale has a solid reputation, but it's hard to argue for that as a factor since the selection committee has a fixed set of ranking factors, and is the reason that Baylor, for example, is downgraded because of SOS.

 

[O-State2009]

ACC--1
1. Notre Dame
3. Louisville
8. Florida State
17. NC State
19. Duke
30. Virginia

SEC--2
4. Mississippi State
9. Tennessee
12. South Carolina
15. Texas A&M
22. Missouri
26. Georgia
27. LSU

Big Ten--3
6. Ohio State
16. Maryland
20. Iowa

Pacific Twelve--5
7. Oregon
10. UCLA
13. Stanford

Big Twelve--4
5. Baylor
11. Texas
33. Oklahoma

The Big Five conferences only account for twenty-one teams that are ranked better than Oklahoma in the rpi.

Now, what minor conference teams or lower ranked teams from the top five should be ranked above OU? I'll give you UConn.. We lost to South Dakota State---there.

Buffalo?
DePaul beat us there in two OT
Central Michigan?
Marquette?
Green Bay?
Villanova?
Princeton?
Dayton?

Then, look at the next ten in the rpi after OU.
Ball State
Syracuse
Gonzaga
Northern Colorado
Michigan
Rutgers
Quinnipiac
Minnesota
Oregon State
UCF

Which of these do you jump over OU because of record? At some point, you begin to get silly if you just jump teams up because they had a winning record, although they finished sixth or seventh in the same conference. For some time, Creme had West Virginia in the field of sixty-four. They did beat A&M at A&M. They never beat OU, Texas, Baylor. They were 8-10 in conference play, sixth. But, due to a very easy schedule, they were 21-11. OU beat them twice. This is the type of decision you have to make. Do you put them in the NCAA over a team that beat them twice because they had a better record due to schedule?

Every team behind Oklahoma in the rpi has the same question. How do you justify jumping them over a team that finished better in games against legitimate competition?

Every team has blemishes. Some really don't have anything to cause them to be considered as much of anything. If OU had played Oklahoma Christian twelve times, we would probably be at least 11-1, and our overall record would have been 22-8 entering the tournament. That's about what some teams did.

Oklahoma has a high RPI because of their high SOS. Quality wins matter, I would think, to the NCAA Selection Committee. Oklahoma has USF and I guess you can consider Belmont(#58 RPI). Oklahoma has no quality wins in the Big 12. Oklahoma was 6-4 in their last 10 games with their Ws against WVU being their best wins.

In my opinion, beat TCU and Oklahoma is in. Since that didnt happen there needs to be a deep look at the resume and tell me if they belong in. I posted before, but Virginia is a great comparison to the Oklahoma SOS/RPI combo.

Virginia sits at #3 SOS, RPI of 30, and an overall record of 18-13 (11-7 in conference). Their worst losses are to #73 Duquesne and #50 Miami. They also have Quality Ws vs. #51, 54, 35, and 17.

Oklahoma sits at #2 SOS, RPI of 33, 16-14 record (11-8 in conference). Worst losses are to #95 UALR and #175 Florida. Quality wins are #14 and 58.

UVA is listed as a 9 seed while Oklahoma is listed as Next Four Out.

 

[swok34]

As much as I would hate to see OU miss out on the consecutive number of NCAA tourney appearances, I really think this team would be better suited in the WNIT and we would probably host games, at that. I know there was a year that Texas got in with 17? wins, not sure if a 16 win team got in. ?? I really don't know, would be interesting to find out because they have played well down this last stretch.

 

[sybarite]

In a couple of cases, Sherri may be right. "Is he on the committee?"

Buffalo: Creme has them as a #9. Go look at their schedule and answer why they are even under consideration. Toughest opponent may have been Nebraska. Split with MidAmerican champ, Central Michigan. Lost to Niagara, Northern Illinois, and Arizona State. Beat? They didn't beat anyone of the quality of West Virginia or TCU even once.

He has seven Pacific 12 teams in the dance, 3 Big Twelve. Yet, the Pacific 12 is the lowest ranked of the power five. What are they doing with seven in the tournament?

Cal: seeded 8, rpi 45, 21-10
USC: seeded 12, rpi 49, 20-11, 10-10 in conference play
Arizona State: seeded 7, rpi 55, 21-12
Oregon State: seeded 6, 23-7
These teams only have decent records because they have about five Texas Tech's to beat up on. We really had Tech and Kansas. Everyone else could beat you. Not true of the Pac twelve.

Creighton: has them at a 10 (18-11). Now, look at their record. They beat Marquette by one on the road for their best win. But, they lost by about 17 at home to them. Nothing to sell here.

16-14 against the people we played looks good in comparison. We were 0-6 against top ten teams. Some played zero. We did beat Belmont and South Florida. He has them in (Belmont by rule). Losing to DePaul, two OT in their house?

If the committee has more than a Creme type, we make it. If not, their loss. We are a top 64 team.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

We probably are a top 64 team -- closer to 64 than 46th or half of that.

I've pretty much changed my opinion. We probably will make it to the tourney. First in or out type of thing.

But the trip won't last long, that's for sure.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

My suspicion is that we get in the dance.

Creme has had us lower than we were seeded every one of the past several years. Not positive why, but he is still suggesting (in TV interview) that WV and TCU should both be seeded above us. He appears to take two factors into consideration: Conference (SEC, ACC, Big-10, Pac-12, then some minor conferences, then finally the Big-12); Next he looks primarily at record, with little consideration of RPI and SOS. The committee will look at those later factors as part of their decision. It seems likely he does what he does because he is an ESPN shrill. You likely notice ESPN ignores even mentioning the Big-12 during telecasts - probably since they are competing with Fox - who has the Big-12 contract. ESPN also does that on their website. Go to ESPN's WBB pages and count how many articles even mention a Big-12 team - even though the conference has 2 of the top 8 teams in even his seeings.

But whether we get in or not, our success will depend on our ability to hit outside shots. Once every 4 games or so we do well at that and are hard to beat. The other 3 games out of 4, we struggle. It is always the nature of teams built around an offense that counts too much on outside shooting success. It is a terribly inconsistent way to build a team.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

Quote from article: The Horned Frogs won all three of their games against the Sooners this season.

As has already been pointed out, that is not what actually happened. We split the regular season games, and then they won the tournament game. However, despite our disappointment, surely everyone realizes how fortunate they were to win that 3rd game.

Folks, they are unlikely to get to shoot 39 free throws again for the next 5 to 10 years. It is a rare event. In addition, they shot 3's far above their skill set. Yes, it happens on occasion. But it is good fortune when it happens. To have both happen in a single game is the best of fortune - not a dependable measure of relative team quality.

 

[O-State2009]

Quote from article: The Horned Frogs won all three of their games against the Sooners this season.

As has already been pointed out, that is not what actually happened. We split the regular season games, and then they won the tournament game. However, despite our disappointment, surely everyone realizes how fortunate they were to win that 3rd game.

Folks, they are unlikely to get to shoot 39 free throws again for the next 5 to 10 years. It is a rare event. In addition, they shot 3's far above their skill set. Yes, it happens on occasion. But it is good fortune when it happens. To have both happen in a single game is the best of fortune - not a dependable measure of relative team quality.

25 of those FTs came in the 4th quarter. 16 in the last two minutes when Oklahoma was intentionally fouling. While they shot 39 FTs (only 23 excluding those last two minutes), Oklahoma also shot 25 FT for the game.

Also, TCU shot 50% from 3. Oklahoma shot 47%.

 

[euphguy]

It isn't as simple as "we are a Top 64 team," and Sherri knows that. She's too smart not to know it. There are conferences that send representatives who win their championships who aren't Top 64. Thus, not every Top 64 team goes to the NCAA Tournament. SMH.

 

[Southie]

Oklahoma scheduled as tough as the NCAA would want team to schedule in non-conference. But, just didn't win enough of the them.

If the last slot were to come down to OSU and OU, how do you leave OSU out when they beat OU twice -- home and away? OSU's non-conference schedule wasn't close to OU. OU has the better resume; but, OSU proved they were the better team in their two games.

 

[sybarite]

Why would it be OU or OSU? The lowest rated conference in rpi is said to have seven slots. Why wouldn't the Big Twelve have four?

 

[Southie]

Why would it be OU or OSU? The lowest rated conference in rpi is said to have seven slots. Why wouldn't the Big Twelve have four?

I said "IF".

My point is that even though OU has an RPI of #33 and the #2 SOS, hard for anyone to claim that OU should get in ahead of OSU despite OSU's #57 RPI and #53 SOS.

The reason? OSU beat OU twice.

Big 12 is very weak this year top to bottom. OU went 0-6 against the Top 3 conference teams.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

I said "IF".

My point is that even though OU has an RPI of #33 and the #2 SOS, hard for anyone to claim that OU should get in ahead of OSU despite OSU's #57 RPI and #53 SOS.

The reason? OSU beat OU twice.

Big 12 is very weak this year top to bottom. OU went 0-6 against the Top 3 conference teams.

While I would probably agree with you, clearly Creme doesn't agree with at least your analysis.

OU defeated WV in both meetings, has a higher RPI, has a stronger SOS, and finished ahead of them in the conference. Yet Creme has WV ahead of OU in his latest bracketology.

He clearly does not believe in head to head meeting or conference standings - or anything except his bias toward the eastern part of the country.. I'm not saying you agree with him, but it shows that Creme struggles with analysis.

By his ratings of the Big-12's 3rd place teams, Creme seems to be suggesting Baylor and Texas would have finished in the bottom half of the SEC, ACC, etc. Truly DUMB.

 

[sybarite]

WV must be good. They demolished A&M in College Station. Of course, they just had trouble winning games in the Big Twelve.