OU vs #1 Gonzaga 1:40pm CDT on CBS

[BoulderSooner]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/OU_MBBall/status/1373975245405614087?s=20[/TWEET]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/OU_MBBall/status/1373759605969457157?s=20[/TWEET]

INDIANAPOLIS – After picking up a First Round win over Missouri, No. 8-seed Oklahoma (16-10, 9-8 Big 12) advances to the round of 32 with the challenge of facing top-ranked and No. 1-seeded Gonzaga (27-0, 15-0 WCC) on Monday afternoon.

The Bulldogs have been ranked No. 1 every week this season in the AP Top-25 and are the heavy favorite to win the national title.

The Sooners will embrace the underdog role when facing the Zags inside the historic venue of Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The building hosted the championship game in the classic film Hoosiers – one of the greatest basketball underdog stories of all time. Oklahoma has a chance to add to that history Monday.

https://soonersports.com/news/2021/...ahoma-faces-undefeated-gonzaga-on-monday.aspx

OU +14 O/U 154

 

[OUSKINS]

I think we have about a 10% chance to win the game. Normally, I hate when people make mathematical exaggerations, but in this case that’s how I really feel. If we played the Zags 10 times, I think we win once. Of the 9 losses, I think they’d probably cover the 14.5 points 5 times— maybe one or two losses that go down to the wire. If we had Harmon I’d bump out chances to closer to 20%. It’s also more to do with THEM than us. Zags have some elite talent, they have depth, they have size, and they are extremely well coached. Just an excellent outfit. Of the teams remaining in the tourney there are only a handful I think would have better than a 25% chance to beat them. The issue for us would be putting ourselves in a position to have to face them so early in the Tournament.

That said, OU wound up where they deserved to be. We are a really tough team that plays excellent half court defense and is opportunistic on offense. We generally won’t hand games away and you need to be better than us to beat us. Here’s hoping today is a 10% day!

 

[MichaelM]

What kind of game would it take for OU to pull out the win? We've all seen huge underdogs play a near-perfect game and make an upset, but this Gonzaga team feels different somehow. I'm not sure near perfection would be enough.

At a minimum, OU has to control the tempo. Can't make turnovers and let the Zags get easy baskets on the break. Make tough shots and make Gonzaga shoot tough shots, and you have at least a fighting chance. That's more or less the formula that took down Alabama in Norman.

In common opponents, they beat Kansas by 12 and West Virginia by 5. That doesn't sound that intimidating, but Gonzaga has seemingly gotten stronger over the course of the season, which can't be said for OU.

Every player for OU needs to contribute. Gibson has been a bit of a liability since he got cold from three. In fact, there hasn't been a game since very early in the season when OU as a team just rained fire from deep. If it did happen again, maybe not even Gonzaga could keep up. But it's hard to say it could happen against one of the best defensive teams in the nation.

My gut says Gonzaga wins and covers. My heart says.. Gonzaga wins and doesn't cover. It's hard to hope for more. But can you imagine?

 

[steverocks35]

What kind of game would it take for OU to pull out the win? We've all seen huge underdogs play a near-perfect game and make an upset, but this Gonzaga team feels different somehow. I'm not sure near perfection would be enough.

At a minimum, OU has to control the tempo. Can't make turnovers and let the Zags get easy baskets on the break. Make tough shots and make Gonzaga shoot tough shots, and you have at least a fighting chance. That's more or less the formula that took down Alabama in Norman.

In common opponents, they beat Kansas by 12 and West Virginia by 5. That doesn't sound that intimidating, but Gonzaga has seemingly gotten stronger over the course of the season, which can't be said for OU.

Every player for OU needs to contribute. Gibson has been a bit of a liability since he got cold from three. In fact, there hasn't been a game since very early in the season when OU as a team just rained fire from deep. If it did happen again, maybe not even Gonzaga could keep up. But it's hard to say it could happen against one of the best defensive teams in the nation.

My gut says Gonzaga wins and covers. My heart says.. Gonzaga wins and doesn't cover. It's hard to hope for more. But can you imagine?

Gonzaga would have to have a complete meltdown and we would have to shoot about 65% to make this close.

 

[WTSooner]

What kind of game would it take for OU to pull out the win?

I don't think we have a team that could lock them down for 40 minutes on defense, rebound well, and take really good care of the ball on offense in order to win an ugly game in the 60's.

I think to win we'll likely have to have 2-3 guys that get REALLY hot from three. It looks like we average about 7.5 made threes a game. I'd say we'd have to make somewhere between 10-12 to have a chance. Turnovers will have to be low too. If we turn it over more than 7 or 8 times, no chance IMO.

Gonzaga has been running #1 all season, but for reasons other than that, this just isn't a great matchup for us. They have a ton of size. I think that is going to make things really tough for us.

 

[thebigabd]

OU needs to have the mentality of ORU, Abilene Christian, Oregon State here... Tons of crazy things happening this year. No reason OU beating Gonzaga shouldn't be one of those crazy things.

 

[TheMont]

I think OU has to shoot a wild percentage from deep AND make a lot of them. We need to shoot something like 13 of 20 from 3. We'd also have to play with 40 minutes of tough defensive energy (like against Bama in Norman), and we'd need a double figure night from someone fairly unexpected (Mo, Hill, etc). And we need to keep the rebounding margin to 5 or less. ALL of those things have to happen for us to have a shot IMO.

I feel almost exactly like I felt before OU played Joe Burrow and LSU. I don't think this game will be that big of a blowout (please god), but it will require a nearly perfect effort from the good guys, and it certainly doesn't help to be going into the game without a key player (just like OU Football had to play without Perkins and Rhamondre).

I say there's a 5% chance of victory. But that's why they play the games. Let the madness begin!

 

[soonerbms]

Best of luck to the team. Just play ferocious defense and make good decisions on offense. That’s all we can really ask. No one on this board or anywhere else is going to hold it against this team if we get run out of the gym.

 

[DSMok1]

On offense, OU will have to have very few turnovers. Gonzaga doesn't force a ton, and OU will have to be very efficient with their possessions. Beyond that... OU has to make 3s. If Gonzaga has a weakness on defense, it's that they allow quite a few 3s.

On defense, it's an even harder ask. Gonzaga is really, really good on offense, perhaps historically great. They are the best shooting team in the country...and certainly one of the most efficient shooting teams of all time. Their team effective field goal percentage (over 61%) is unprecedented. Gonzaga LIVES at the rim--half of their shots are at the rim, and they make almost 75% of them! OU needs to keep Gonzaga from getting to the rim. Anyone but Kispert shooting 3s is a win. Midrangers are a huge win.

So, to sum up...Be efficient, make your 3s, and blockade the rim and lock down Kispert.

One encouraging note is that shooting sometimes can sometimes bounce your way... OU will need that to have a chance.

https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?&year=2021&t1l=Oklahoma&t2l=Gonzaga#

 

[mict085]

Gonzaga is just too good. OU can’t beat them. Gonzaga would have to have a complete meltdown and beat themselves. They have NBA talent and they’re deep. OU has 1 reliable, consistent scorer. If Gonzaga swarms Reaves, OU will be hard pressed to score before finding themselves behind by 20+.

 

[MrAnderson]

I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see how we can possibly win. 2 years ago against Virginia I felt we had a puncher's chance, given their style, if everything went our way.

Gonzaga has better players and more size than that UVA team that won the natty. And they play fast. There may be only a handful of teams that can stay within single digits of the Zags. We aren't one of them I'm afraid.

 

[BoulderSooner]

I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see how we can possibly win. 2 years ago against Virginia I felt we had a puncher's chance, given their style, if everything went our way.

Gonzaga has better players and more size than that UVA team that won the natty. And they play fast. There may be only a handful of teams that can stay within single digits of the Zags. We aren't one of them I'm afraid.

with sadness i very much agree with this

 

[BanjoCharley]

Then why do we even play the game?

 

[BoulderSooner]

Because David did beat goliath.

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[inoref]

I think Gonzaga will run them out of the gym

 

[allday92]

I think Gonzaga will run them out of the gym

Agreed. I'm an eternal optimist, but Suggs and Kispert with Timme inside is just too much for OU to handle.

 

[DSMok1]

https://twitter.com/TRowOU/status/1374007058450776064

Toby Rowland:
"Lon Kruger told us on our pregame interview this morning that his team will arrive at Hinkle early so they can measure the rims and free throw lines. He also said his first out-of-bounds play they’ll run the “picket fence” to get Umoja a look at a 3. He was joking (I think?)"

 

[cowboysooner]

How do we win -- the same way any team wins:

(1) shoot 40% from the three and 80% from the line

(2) keep them from shooting more than 25% from the 3

(3) limit them to zero second chance points

(4) don't have any turnovers

This is all possible but unlikely. We normally limit turnovers and shoot a high percentage from the line, so we could conceivably do these things. They are big and athletic so I doubt we can win the defense glass the way we need to, particularly with our offensive lineup, e.g. Manek and gibson, vs. Kauth and Vic.

We can shoot the ball well from the 3, but don't all the time. We don't normally guard the 3 very well.

In any event, I am fired up for the challenge. Go Sooners. If you are going into the fight/game of your life, your best bet is with seniors. So, your saying there is a chance.

 

[scrybe]

Best of luck to the team. Just play ferocious defense and make good decisions on offense. That’s all we can really ask. No one on this board or anywhere else is going to hold it against this team if we get run out of the gym.

Wanna bet?

But I'm with you on those previous statements. :ez-laugh:

 

[WTSooner]

Best of luck to the team. Just play ferocious defense and make good decisions on offense. That’s all we can really ask. No one on this board or anywhere else is going to hold it against this team if we get run out of the gym.

Run of the gym is a pretty broad term.

Will I be mad if we lose by 10-20? Probably not.

The line is 14. Other teams have played Gonzaga games to within 15-20 points. I do NOT expect to be down 20 at the half, or to lose by 25+.

I'll be upset if the team quits if they get down early, etc.