OU vs #12 KSU 8pm CST on ESPNU

[SoonerBounce13]

I will take this bet with you.

First billion dollar bet in OUHoops history?

 

[Eielson]

We beat one really good team on a day that team no-showed. That game was a fluke.

Unless there was an injury or similar circumstance, you have to be careful about randomly dismissing great performances. OU has played well at home this season, so you can just as easily dismiss the KU and OSU home games as the Alabama and KSU games. It's actually easier.

I obviously wouldn't expect OU to beat Alabama by 24 again if they replayed the game, but I would have picked them to win if they played it back the following day. OU was fortunate to have shot so well from deep early in the game which led to an early lead, but they continued to build that lead by getting great looks all game. They outplayed Alabama from start to finish.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Unless there was an injury or similar circumstance, you have to be careful about randomly dismissing great performances. OU has played well at home this season, so you can just as easily dismiss the KU and OSU home games as the Alabama and KSU games. It's actually easier.

I obviously wouldn't expect OU to beat Alabama by 24 again if they replayed the game, but I would have picked them to win if they played it back the following day. OU was fortunate to have shot so well from deep early in the game which led to an early lead, but they continued to build that lead by getting great looks all game. They outplayed Alabama from start to finish.

The bolded part is the one thing I will pick nits about. Our home record is pretty awful and I don't consider close losses as positives at home. You have to protect the home court in conference and we are 2-5, plus we have a home loss to Sam Houston. Our inability to win at home is what is keeping us off the bubble. As bad as we are on the road, if we had only lost 3, maybe even 4, home games, we would at least have a fightinh chance.

 

[WaymanFan]

The bolded part is the one thing I will pick nits about. Our home record is pretty awful and I don't consider close losses as positives at home. You have to protect the home court in conference and we are 2-5, plus we have a home loss to Sam Houston. Our inability to win at home is what is keeping us off the bubble. As bad as we are on the road, if we had only lost 3, maybe even 4, home games, we would at least have a fightinh chance.

I'm with you on this one. We're 8-6 at home...and that should never be interpreted as anything positive.

 

[Eielson]

The bolded part is the one thing I will pick nits about. Our home record is pretty awful and I don't consider close losses as positives at home. You have to protect the home court in conference and we are 2-5, plus we have a home loss to Sam Houston. Our inability to win at home is what is keeping us off the bubble. As bad as we are on the road, if we had only lost 3, maybe even 4, home games, we would at least have a fightinh chance.

We may have lost to SHSU and OSU at home, but those were flukes, so I'm able to wipe it from the record, right?

Obviously you want to win at home, but when you're not even in the bubble discussion, playing top 12 teams to the final buzzer is definitely a positive. Unless you're in a tournament, there's a big difference between a 2 point and 22 point loss. We've played the #1, #6, #9, #12, and #19 teams at home -- only one beat us by more than 3. In a season full of negatives, this is absolutely a positive. How many years did Lon beat two top 12 teams at home?

Despite our losing record, Vegas still had us as favorites against the #12 team last night. I think I can rest my case on that. If you could outsmart Vegas, you wouldn't be posting here.

 

[WichitaSooner]

We may have lost to SHSU and OSU at home, but those were flukes, so I'm able to wipe it from the record, right?

Obviously you want to win at home, but when you're not even in the bubble discussion, playing top 12 teams to the final buzzer is definitely a positive. Unless you're in a tournament, there's a big difference between a 2 point and 22 point loss. We've played the #1, #6, #9, #12, and #19 teams at home -- only one beat us by more than 3. In a season full of negatives, this is absolutely a positive. How many years did Lon beat two top 12 teams at home?

Despite our losing record, Vegas still had us as favorites against the #12 team last night. I think I can rest my case on that. If you could outsmart Vegas, you wouldn't be posting here.

I have no clue how my post has anything to do with outsmarting Vegas. And the reason we aren’t in the bubble conversation is precisely because we lost all those home games. Your argument appears to be that because we stink so bad, we should be happy with close home losses. But if we didn’t lose those close games, we wouldn’t stink.

I haven’t looked it up, but Lon had a handful of wins over KU, and also had quite a few other ranked wins. I mean, I think it was his last season when we set some sort of record for top 25 wins in January.

 

[WichitaSooner]

We may have lost to SHSU and OSU at home, but those were flukes, so I'm able to wipe it from the record, right?

Obviously you want to win at home, but when you're not even in the bubble discussion, playing top 12 teams to the final buzzer is definitely a positive. Unless you're in a tournament, there's a big difference between a 2 point and 22 point loss. We've played the #1, #6, #9, #12, and #19 teams at home -- only one beat us by more than 3. In a season full of negatives, this is absolutely a positive. How many years did Lon beat two top 12 teams at home?

Despite our losing record, Vegas still had us as favorites against the #12 team last night. I think I can rest my case on that. If you could outsmart Vegas, you wouldn't be posting here.

Also, OSU wasn’t a fluke at all. They whipped us home and away and are flat better than us. We would be fortunate to beat them 40 percent of the time on a neutral floor. That’s much different than us and Bama. As for Sam Houston, again, apples to oranges. We didn’t lose to them because we showed up overconfident as the number 2 team in the country, or because we weren’t ready to play. It was the season opener, we were motivated and led the entire game, then gagged all over ourselves at the end. Seeing as how that was a common occurrence for us the first two months, I’d label that anything but a fluke.

 

[Eielson]

I have no clue how my post has anything to do with outsmarting Vegas.

If Vegas has us favored against elite teams at home, that means Vegas thinks we're typically a tough team at home. If you think we're not a tough team at home, then you're pretending to know something Vegas doesn't.

 

[Eielson]

Also, OSU wasn’t a fluke at all. They whipped us home and away and are flat better than us. We would be fortunate to beat them 40 percent of the time on a neutral floor. That’s much different than us and Bama. As for Sam Houston, again, apples to oranges. We didn’t lose to them because we showed up overconfident as the number 2 team in the country, or because we weren’t ready to play. It was the season opener, we were motivated and led the entire game, then gagged all over ourselves at the end. Seeing as how that was a common occurrence for us the first two months, I’d label that anything but a fluke.

So you could tell Alabama was overconfident against us, but our guys weren't overconfident against SHSU? Did KSU lose because they were overconfident? UT, Baylor, and ISU played to the final buzzer because they were overconfident? KU probably almost lost at Phog because of overconfidence, but then blew us out in Norman because they overcame the overconfidence? Same thing for OSU in the first half in Stillwater vs the second half?

Please share the results of this confidence-meter you have on your couch next game.

 

[skyvue]

How many years did Lon beat two top 12 teams at home?

During Kruger's tenure, OU beat two top 12 teams at home four times. (There were a few years they didn't play two top 12 teams in Norman.)

Their overall home record against top 12 team under Kruger was 11-8. Pretty darned good.

Here's the yearly breakdown of top 12 home wins:

2021 -- WVA, KU, Bama (the only top 12 teams we played at home)

2020 -- none (we played two top 12 teams at home: #1 BU and #6 KU; WVA was #13 when we beat them at LNC)

2019 -- We played no #12 teams in Norman (KU was #13 when we beat them at LNC)

2018 -- Tech, KU (the only top 12 teams we played at home)

2017 -- none (we played two top 12 teams in Norman--#4 BU and #2 KU)

2016 -- ISU, WVA (we played three top 12 teams that season, losing to KU)

2015 -- KU (the only top 12 team we played at home)

2014 -- ISU, OSU (the only top 12 teams we played at home)

2013 -- KU (the only top 12 team we played at home).

2012 -- none (played two top 12 teams in Norman)

 

[WichitaSooner]

So you could tell Alabama was overconfident against us, but our guys weren't overconfident against SHSU? Did KSU lose because they were overconfident? UT, Baylor, and ISU played to the final buzzer because they were overconfident? KU probably almost lost at Phog because of overconfidence, but then blew us out in Norman because they overcame the overconfidence? Same thing for OSU in the first half in Stillwater vs the second half?

Please share the results of this confidence-meter you have on your couch next game.

I could give a crap about close losses. Those teams are better than us and they beat us. We don’t get any credit in the standings for playing them to the wire. As for KU, Self actually said the other day that they did come into the game in Norman more tuned in because we played them close in Lawrence, so I think there is a pretty good chance they just assumed they would beat us easily on their home court.

As for Sam Houston, if we took them lightly, we wouldn’t have been able to build a 14-point lead. Last night, we played well, but KSU also is in the middle of their first rough patch.

The bigger point is that of course you and others can look at a handful of games (or apparently partial games) and say we are capable of beating good teams. But we have only actually done it three or four times in 26 games. So suggesting we could do it four times in five games, with three on the road, is a huge stretch. I’d put the odds of us winning each of the road games at about one in five. Do the math and getting to four more wins is a HUGE long shot. That’s all I’m saying. I just feel like there is always too much emphasis on our most recent game and it’s like people get amnesia and forget everything that’s happened since November.

 

[TINY]

I could give a crap about close losses. Those teams are better than us and they beat us. We don’t get any credit in the standings for playing them to the wire. As for KU, Self actually said the other day that they did come into the game in Norman more tuned in because we played them close in Lawrence, so I think there is a pretty good chance they just assumed they would beat us easily on their home court.

As for Sam Houston, if we took them lightly, we wouldn’t have been able to build a 14-point lead. Last night, we played well, but KSU also is in the middle of their first rough patch.

The bigger point is that of course you and others can look at a handful of games (or apparently partial games) and say we are capable of beating good teams. But we have only actually done it three or four times in 26 games. So suggesting we could do it four times in five games, with three on the road, is a huge stretch. I’d put the odds of us winning each of the road games at about one in five. Do the math and getting to four more wins is a HUGE long shot. That’s all I’m saying. I just feel like there is always too much emphasis on our most recent game and it’s like people get amnesia and forget everything that’s happened since November.

I think the point he is making is if you are going to discount ou’s elite wins based on your opinion, then he or anyone else can boost up the close losses (or whatever else) based on their opinion. It isn’t a strong argument either way. You don’t need to discount ou’s wins to make your point that ou is highly unlikely to rip of 3-4 quad 1 wins rest of the regular season.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

We've played the #1, #6, #9, #12, and #19 teams at home -- only one beat us by more than 3. .

I mean that is pretty amazing

 

[hoopsaustin]

We may have lost to SHSU and OSU at home, but those were flukes, so I'm able to wipe it from the record, right?

Obviously you want to win at home, but when you're not even in the bubble discussion, playing top 12 teams to the final buzzer is definitely a positive. Unless you're in a tournament, there's a big difference between a 2 point and 22 point loss. We've played the #1, #6, #9, #12, and #19 teams at home -- only one beat us by more than 3. In a season full of negatives, this is absolutely a positive. How many years did Lon beat two top 12 teams at home?

Despite our losing record, Vegas still had us as favorites against the #12 team last night. I think I can rest my case on that. If you could outsmart Vegas, you wouldn't be posting here.

This is like the OSU mentality.. close losses arent wins, my man

 

[hoopsaustin]

I mean that is pretty amazing

I guess to some. To me, in my head i think "man we lost to those ranked teams sooo good. Only lost by 3 on average!"

 

[WichitaSooner]

I think the point he is making is if you are going to discount ou’s elite wins based on your opinion, then he or anyone else can boost up the close losses (or whatever else) based on their opinion. It isn’t a strong argument either way. You don’t need to discount ou’s wins to make your point that ou is highly unlikely to rip of 3-4 quad 1 wins rest of the regular season.

That’s a fair point, I guess I just reference the Bama game because it feels like a lot of people are basing their optimism that we can/are capable of beating anyone off that game, and it sure feels to me like we have a ton of evidence indicating that that game was a massive outlier for both us and Bama. Beating one great team in the nonconference is so much different than having to string together several great games in a town against conference teams that have a better feel for our weaknesses, and I think that’s reflected in our league record.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Coaches|Years|T25 Reg Season Games|T25 games per Year|Win %|More W than L|Avg SOS

Moser ------ 2 | 34 | 17 | 20% | 0 | 4.5
Kruger ---- 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 37% | 2 | 15
Capel ------- 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 21% | 0 | 34
Sampson-- 12 | 62 | 5.6 | 40% | 2 | 55
Tubbs ----- 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 40% | 3 | 29

 

[hoopsaustin]

Coaches|Years|T25 Reg Season Games|T25 games per Year|Win %|More W than L|Avg SOS

Moser ------ 2 | 34 | 17 | 20% | 0 | 4.5
Kruger ---- 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 37% | 2 | 15
Capel ------- 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 21% | 0 | 34
Sampson-- 12 | 62 | 5.6 | 40% | 2 | 55
Tubbs ----- 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 40% | 3 | 29

We need a 40% guy stat!

 

[TEvans4Three]

We need a 40% guy stat!

Orrrrr we need to lower that denominator?

But also yes.

Those 40% guys have all the conf championships too...the top 3, have 0 between them.

 

[TINY]

Coaches|Years|T25 Reg Season Games|T25 games per Year|Win %|More W than L|Avg SOS

Moser ------ 2 | 34 | 17 | 20% | 0 | 4.5
Kruger ---- 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 37% | 2 | 15
Capel ------- 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 21% | 0 | 34
Sampson-- 12 | 62 | 5.6 | 40% | 2 | 55
Tubbs ----- 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 40% | 3 | 29

Thanks, TEvans! Are Moser’s stats projected through the end of the regular season or just to through Kstate? Not sure what metrics you are using but no reason to not trust your stats.

To say Moser has faced a far more difficult schedule than his predecessors would be a massive understatement. The delta between Moser’s SOS and Sampson’s SOS is insane (11 times harder on average). Lon and Moser SOS also supports how much more difficult the big12 is now versus the Sampson days especially.

This should drastically change when we play the sec schedule. If Moser is the right guy, then the team should be much better by then, too.